2020 Collapse


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mmm....shiney! said:
madaw1 said:
I think,that any market is these days more manipulated than 20-30 years ago. I'm trading more news these days and I found it quite successful comparing with charts.
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Yep, when you look at the charts using TA you’re really just doing a behavioural analysis of the market.
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Exactly.
I don't use the news, because by the time you hear about it, the market has usually already priced it in.
It can also bias your psychological rationalisation, as you will usually watch/listen to news that is in-line with what you want to hear... or the media wants you to hear.
 
TreasureHunter said:
Overbought based on what? RSI? Or, considering the fact that "it's about time for a correction"?
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Probably time for a correction? I’m stacking, not trading so it wouldn’t make sense for me to chase on news. I’ve also bought on 2 Dec at $1462 so the urge to buy again isn’t that great for now.

Also, I don’t think the Iranian situation will result in open war other than the usual sabotages and drone strikes. The market is overreacting. Iran has been doing hit and run proxy warfare for some time so the retaliation could be some drone attack by proxies or sabotage on ships in the Persian gulf. All these need an element of surprise so it could be 1-2 months later when it happens and the market would have forgotten.

But I could be wrong, these people are not rational. If so, gold could go up a lot higher. :)
 
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wrcmad said:
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Exactly.
I don't use the news, because by the time you hear about it, the market has usually already priced it in.
It can also bias your psychological rationalisation, as you will usually watch/listen to news that is in-line with what you want to hear... or the media wants you to hear.
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This is correct to some extent-I'm not talking about everyday news,but very extraordinary and rare events which have very big impact on market. It can happens once a year or every few years ,but it's happening-when September 11 has happened we've got hour or two time before the market priced it in. When Iranien General has been killed the gold price went up $80AUD already. You have to check the news from different sources-not only NBC/It's better not to listen to any american news/ and the probability that you are right in any market are in your favour...my 2 cents
 
One of the things I learnt when I started stacking is to never underestimate the chartists. In the short run, weeks or months, charts can be more powerful than facts. When they say it's overbought, it's time to take caution, fundamentals, money printing, etc, don't matter.
 
sgbuyer said:
One of the things I learnt when I started stacking is to never underestimate the chartists. In the short run, weeks or months, charts can be more powerful than facts. When they say it's overbought, it's time to take caution, fundamentals, money printing, etc, don't matter.
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You never underestimate anything-like everything in life has to have a balance-in stacking and trading as well....
 
A very simple thing I look at is the intersections on the MACD - the previous downturn was signaled by an intersection on the MACD.

Now, we're still far from an intersection - meaning that the thirst for gold still is powerful. I don't think a correction is close, but it will come.

I think we'll hit 1,600 $ this week.

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madaw1 said:
It is even nicer number if you own some ounces...
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Psychologically, we tend to assign a higher value on something which costs more. When pt was $2000 an ounce, which wasn't too long ago, everyone wanted a platinum ring. Today, everyone wants gold.

My mom told me that in the 60s and 70s, gold was very cheap and wasn't considered valuable (private ownership gold wasn't banned or restricted in Singapore). Women in Singapore wore jade which was considered more valuable than gold.
 
I remember checking the price of gold in the early 2000's. At around 2000-2002 or so... and gold didn't feel at all attractive for a mere 8 $/gram.

It felt like one could buy a huge piece for 800 $ only. Imagine that: 100 grams for a mere 800 $.

It felt like it's "not worth bothering with". And investment gold wasn't that popular back then. When most people heard gold, they thought of necklaces and rings.
 
TreasureHunter said:
It felt like one could buy a huge piece for 800 $ only. Imagine that: 100 grams for a mere 800 $.
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I bought gold coin in late 90s or was it 2000? The 90s is basically a Western world (+ Japan). China was just emerging, and India was still sleeping. What I can say is that the recent 20 years had been very good for emerging countries like China, India, Africa, Indonesia and suddenly, you have 3 billion buyers of gold that didn't exist previously, this drove up the price of gold.

So for people who say gold can't drop, I'm not so sure. If there's a huge 2008 style recession hitting China and India, the demand for physical gold can plunge and even if Putin throws in everything Russia has, he won't be able to pump up gold because the excess supply will be overwhelming - mined gold + pawned gold. Sure the chance of this happening is very low but it is not 0%.
 
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