2017 fiat pandas lost $350M market share - Where will that money go?

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badon

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This is one of the most important articles I have written in the last 2 years:

2017 fiat pandas lost $350 million market share - Where will that money go next?

The ultra-short version is the announced 2017 panda mintages appear to have increased, but in reality, the amount of metal they're selling is actually decreased by $350 million. You can interpret that as a loss in sales, or as a loss in value that people get for their money when they buy 2017 fiat pandas. Either way, that $350 million is NOT going into the 2017 pandas. With the numismatic coins and precious metals markets sucking up more cash than they have in the previous year, it's clear that money is still in this market, and looking for something to buy. What will they buy? That's the question everyone needs to ponder before they make their investing plans.

I have noticed increased sales of non-pandas and non-fiat pandas, and I am guessing that around 1% of that $350 million - at least - has already started chasing newly minted alternatives, and driving prices higher. The rest of the world is not aware of this yet, but that 1% is only the beginning, because 2017 isn't even here yet. When that $350 million gets dropped on the market, it's going to make a crater where the cheap, low mintage coins used to be. This will be the first time the modern Chinese coins (MCC) market has been driven by newly minted coins - but hey, there's a first time for everything, right? Besides, it makes perfect sense - that $350 million was supposed to be chasing 2017 pandas, so it makes perfect sense for it to be re-allocated to other recently minted coins.
 
Your numbers are wrong. The mintage for 2016 is 600k across the board.

The 2017s saw an increase 200k units of 3g, 400k units of 1g and 30g increased 100k, not including the 150g which is upped from 50k to 60k.

Total gram increase.

200,000
1,200,000
3,000,000
1.5m
-----
5.9m g / 31.1 = 189,710 ozt net increase of gold * 1296 = ~$246m

+ 2 million ounces of silver x $18.00 = $36m
--------------------
$282m in addtional material for purchasers to buy. The lost market share was in 2016 but is reflected in the higher prices of the units. What was 120/130 goes for 199 easily and $50 is now $76. In 2017, those numbers increased.

Sorry but you are off by about $596 million. Some folks went to non-fiat, sure. Those people that could not afford gold panda's in 2016 might be able to afford them now since they are higher mintages. If you recall the 2016s at issue the 1g spiked all the way up to $90+ and the 3g for $180 OMP. So the only alternative was the non-fiat at $70-$150. Whether that captures new market share and sustains is the question. Fiat panda a loser? That's just false. Non-fiat a winner? Yes, but for the same reason you call the 2016 a loser. China limited the mintage and arbitrarily made it 'rare' or hard to get which drove up the price until the market was able to absorb. This year I think prices will be down for gold pandas while mintages for medals increase too. The market decides the winners and losers. Considering it is difficult to find a 30g 2016 since none are available at dealers, its a stretch to say the pandas are losers.
 
I don't know about LA, but here in Europe, 2016 Pandas are easy to find and cheaper than new 2017 Pandas.
 
Golden said:
I don't know about LA, but here in Europe, 2016 Pandas are easy to find and cheaper than new 2017 Pandas.
Click to expand...

30g Gold?

Also, how is that even possible? I thought they don't ship til the end of the month.
 
Golden said:
Dealers are probably offloading 2016 in favor of new ones.
Click to expand...

Either way, the premise of lost market share is not correct. If they are in fact sold out, that would show market share is still strong and not in decline. I am still surprised it is so cheap in Europe though, but it is 30g.
 
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