2013 1 oz Panda

Big A.D. said:
mmissinglink said:
1.4 billion people?????????? So all toddlers including those the age of 2 weeks and also 4 months old are buying silver pandas....really?????????

I would say a lot closer to a couple hundred thousand people buying pandas in China. Most Chinese, from what I have read, are very poor and only buy what's necessary for living....which definitely won't include panda coins.

So 9 million pandas would probably go a long way (a whole lot of surplus)....unless pump & dump speculators are buying a lot of them in order to artificially drive up the price and then flip at some point.

1.4 billion Chinese buying pandas...that's a good one! :lol:
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China gets two new USD billionaires every week plus another 800-900 millionaires (plus an unknown number of existing millionaires who make another million).

You'd only really need a few hundred rich Chinese to get enough buying power to make up for every child in the country who can't buy a Panda.

China will produce enough new rich people to do that before dinner tomorrow.
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You are assuming that a few hundred of these new rich people are interested in buying Pandas. Some almost certainly might be interested in adding Pandas to their portfolio but many may just put their money into paper markets or international real estate where they can speculate and make lots more money than sitting on physical Pandas for years. If instead these wealthy people who are buying physical Pandas are not sitting on them for years but waiting to flip them in a few weeks or a couple of months, then this game of pump and dump is a short term game and the prices are sure to come way down when the last of the suckers have way overpaid and cannot find an even bigger sucker to pawn them off to. Prices will have to drop at that point.

I can not be certain about how many people in China are actually buying Pandas but I don't think there's anyone who really knows. If 1/2 of 1% are buying then I think this is a very liberal estimate. If you have facts that show otherwise and these facts can be corroborated, I am willing to concede that I might be way off.

I think I am not so far off though.



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barsenault said:
I hope you are right AD and Yennus, but I'm in missing's camp. I just don't see how 8, 9, 10 million, etc...becomes a semi-numi play. :D.
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1996 ASE = 3.6 million coins = 3x spot

10-million-mintage-panda = ???x spot


Population of USA = 320 million

Number of Americans per 1996 ASE = 89(is)

Population of China = 1350 million

Number of Chinese per 10-million-mintage-panda = 135


That's how it could happen. Whether it does or not is anyone's guess.
 
If the published total mintages for the previous year Pandas are correct, none of them ever reach the projected maximums. One thing consistent though is that the mintages of ASEs and CSMLs for corresponding years are way higher.
 
barsenault has privately confessed to me that he's been busy stacking these beauties..


14291_painted_panda.jpg
 
I've got a big stash in the treasure chest, I especially like the diamond eyes. And I seriously wonder if this was really ever for sale, or was it a joke? lol.
 
BREAKING:


Just heard rumors from the inner circle that "4th of July Panda" will be having its IPO on the exchange next week..


BUY BUY BUY! :o
 
Amen justfishing. Im not one to argue with him on the Pandas. I'm just a bit skeptical on how the Pandas don't get relegated to an average bullion coin, like the eagle, when many, many more millions (10, 20, 30 million) are minted. I'm not a believer, nor a buyer. However, I hope I'm wrong.
 
Big A.D. said:
barsenault said:
I hope you are right AD and Yennus, but I'm in missing's camp. I just don't see how 8, 9, 10 million, etc...becomes a semi-numi play. :D.
Click to expand...

1996 ASE = 3.6 million coins = 3x spot

10-million-mintage-panda = ???x spot


Population of USA = 320 million

Number of Americans per 1996 ASE = 89(is)

Population of China = 1350 million

Number of Chinese per 10-million-mintage-panda = 135


That's how it could happen. Whether it does or not is anyone's guess.
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The problem with that example is that you are using a 20 year (nearly) old coin. Let's stick to what the real issue is. Is the 2015 Panda really worth more than several USD $ over spot? The answer, in my opinion, is no for the reason already given.

Speculators can hype then pump and dump anything and the perceived value will be driven artificially higher. This almost always ends bad for the last group of people on that relay race because at some point, we will run out of speculators who are willing to pay as much or more as the speculators who want to dump. Smart collectors would have already purchased the Panda at original cost when the Pandas were a few $ over spot or if they didn't they know they can always wait for better prices. After all, there are millions of these things in existence.




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mmissinglink said:
... Is the 2015 Panda really worth more than several USD $ over spot? ... After all, there are millions of these things in existence.
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Look at the prices that the 2011, 2012 and 2013 Pandas currently achieve - all of these Pandas were minted in the millions. All of them are above spot.

It's highly likely that in 5years time, the 2015 Panda will also be worth many more dollars over spot.
 
I agree Yennus...However, I think that tune will change with unlimited mintage (if true). I will no longer be a buyer of Pandas. But for the sake of my friends buying globs and globs of these 2015's, and beyond, I do hope you are right. 23'ish for a 2015, when eagles are 19'ish, maybe not so high, as long as they keep the mintage below 8 million...
 
yennus said:
mmissinglink said:
... Is the 2015 Panda really worth more than several USD $ over spot? ... After all, there are millions of these things in existence.
Click to expand...

Look at the prices that the 2011, 2012 and 2013 Pandas currently achieve - all of these Pandas were minted in the millions. All of them are above spot.

It's highly likely that in 5years time, the 2015 Panda will also be worth many more dollars over spot.
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1) I never asserted that the 2015 Panda should be selling for below or at spot. My argument has been that it's not really worth more than several USD $ over spot. I found 2 days ago dealers selling the 2015 Panda for a few $ over spot...that's about the right price.

2) That may be true about the price in 5 years, but 5 years is a long time for many people. And just because in 5 years the 2015 Panda may achieve more significant premiums than just several $ over spot that the Panda can be purchased today from some dealers, it doesn't mean that the price of the 2015 Panda isn't being driven artificially higher today because of speculators....I think it is if you see prices of more than USD $40 for a bullion coin minted in the millions.

3) I can buy 2015 Pandas for USD $23.40 to about $26 (depending on volume) all day long:

http://www.providentmetals.com/2015-chinese-silver-panda-coin.html

http://www.bgasc.com/product/2015-1...YPBg4gkFU1H-Anc7rojpbgKMP9R_58-rVNBoCItrw_wcB

http://www.apmex.com/product/84931/2015-china-1-oz-silver-panda-bu-in-capsule-june-5th





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The significant price up of the china silver and gold coin in china is due to the speculation of the electronics platform recently. How you ship a significant quantity to the buyer at china? Do you know them? so many questions to solve before you can get it done.
 
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