1oz silver Panda vs 1oz silver Lunar Dragon

First, we need to establish what we mean by the term 'outperform'.

In the short, mid and long term, given a mintage of 300,000 vs 6,000,000, key date of the series vs an ordinary issue, I would see 2012 Dragon costing more than a 2011 or 2012 Panda. Does it mean Dragon has outperformed Panda?

We would then have to look at what is the buy price of the collector. Did he pay $50 for Panda and then it moved up to $60? And he paid $200 for Dragon and it came down to $150 when the dust settle. Does this scenario mean Panda outperformed Dragon?
 
fishball said:
Lord Dragon said:
Pandas still have the problem of being pandas. Stupidly large number of knockoffs kicking around. I wont touch them with a 10 ft pole.
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People keep saying that yet I've never bought nor seen a fake knockoff.

Never seen a fake ASE either though.

Scaremongering really imo. If you use some common sense it's pretty easy to avoid the fakes.
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Here are some sources for fake panda information:

http://www.pandacollector.com/rogue.html

http://reviews.ebay.com/Guide-to-De...hinese-Panda-Coins_W0QQugidZ10000000002807263

http://www.pandausa.com/fake-panda-list.html

http://s185.photobucket.com/albums/x229/TomD77/fake pandas/ (you might recognize the photographer)

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=84588 (See the post #6 by Orbtofon. He mentions that the fake pandas were in fake NGC slabs. I suspect many of the pandas being sold on ebay are fakes in fake slabs)
 
It's kind of like saying you won't get an iPhone because of all the fake iPhones or stolen iPhones on eBay.

I've said it extensively and I'll say it again, Pandas fakes are not terribly hard to spot for people who do their research and avoid eBay.

Even if you want to use eBay, there are plenty of US sellers with very high feedback on eBay that sell slabbed pandas, you should be buying of those guys if you really want slabbed pandas.
 
fishball said:
It's kind of like saying you won't get an iPhone because of all the fake iPhones or stolen iPhones on eBay.

I've said it extensively and I'll say it again, Pandas fakes are not terribly hard to spot for people who do their research and avoid eBay.

Even if you want to use eBay, there are plenty of US sellers with very high feedback on eBay that sell slabbed pandas, you should be buying of those guys if you really want slabbed pandas.
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fishball, most people will not do the research. To me, that means the panda prices will be affected as many people will just avoid them. You can see the affect of the "fake Chinese" syndrome now on a lot of US stock listings for Chinese based companies. I had stopped buying pandas even before the large increase in mintage. When I saw the posts last year about people from China contacting SS members to offer fake NGC slabs, I put 2 & 2 together and got fake slabbed pandas. Brilliant idea actually. The fakes will be much harder to detect in the slabs and the selling prices will be higher. Win-win for the criminals.
 
The only 'research' I've ever done is look at the price and look at seller's reputation/feedback then I put 2+2 together and it becomes obvious if they are selling fakes. So far it's worked 100%. If 'most people' are too stupid to do this, then they will most likely buy German Silver or other 999 mills crap but I don't see that affecting prices of Silver bars.

There are fake coins out there surely, but I don't think the value of the legit coins will be affected. Check out the prices on the 1984 Pagoda set and you will see what I mean.

If you are buying 2010/2011 pandas it's pretty safe if you exercise common sense, there are less fakes around for newer years because the majority of the fakes are the high priced items such as 2000 frosted/mirrored pandas.

Anyway, Sinophobia is a common thing among people and their sentiment of 'fake Chinese stuff' is never going to change. Doesn't mean that everything from China is a poor investment though and honestly couldn't care less about "most people" since I wouldn't be selling my super rare Pandas to some pleb on the street.

I think ^^^ is something most bullion stackers don't understand. Basically there is no shortage of informed buyers (numismatic "stackers") out there for Pandas and other Chinese coinage.

Stacking Pandas is not for SHTF or fiat collapse. It is an investment for potential gains with the safety net being the underlying metal value. That is why I stack a lot of Gold fractional pandas, their legitimacy is easy to tell and they are reasonably priced above spot and they have a massive upside potential judging from other Chinese coin series.

Avoiding a market entirely based on the premise of "oh it may be fake so it'll be hard to sell later" isn't exactly smart investing but then again nor is jumping in blindly because "it'll be fine there aren't that many fakes!".

dccpa brings up some very valid points and I believe stackers should take into consideration both sides before committing to buying Pandas.

Do your research!
 
Just got hold of a ratty old frosted 2000, that means I now have an example of each year 1oz silver Panda coin back to 89 which seems to the easiest to get hold of for some reason ? I have multiples of some years and some proof versions so I've done pretty well. Pre 89 prices verge on aristocratic. I'd have to be lucky to get into that arena.
 
Dynoman said:
Just got hold of a ratty old frosted 2000, that means I now have an example of each year 1oz silver Panda coin back to 89 which seems to the easiest to get hold of for some reason ? I have multiples of some years and some proof versions so I've done pretty well. Pre 89 prices verge on aristocratic. I'd have to be lucky to get into that arena.
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Amazing... pics!!!!! :D
 
fishball said:
Dynoman said:
Just got hold of a ratty old frosted 2000, that means I now have an example of each year 1oz silver Panda coin back to 89 which seems to the easiest to get hold of for some reason ? I have multiples of some years and some proof versions so I've done pretty well. Pre 89 prices verge on aristocratic. I'd have to be lucky to get into that arena.
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Amazing... pics!!!!! :D
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Cheers yeah I'll have to do that soon.
 
yennus said:
Trichter said:
Hi Guys,

I'm currently accepting 1-to-1 swap offers, my 2011 pandas for your 1oz Lunar II dragons. :)

Over the long term, could the 2012 1oz silver Panda really outperform the 1oz silver 2012 Lunar II Dragon? Even with the vast differences in the mintages? What about Lunars in coming years? what are your thoughts?
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In regards to the comment: "Pandas still have the problem of being pandas. Stupidly large number of knockoffs kicking around. I wont touch them with a 10 ft pole."

This is a typical response of a Pandaphobe exhibiting his Pandahysteria.

1. The counterfeit Panda issue is a NON-ISSUE in China. If you sell fake Pandas in China and get caught, you are likely to DIE. (If you sell them overseas, well that's different).
2. The local Chinese can recognize fake Pandas as well as we can recognize fake ASEs. (YES there are fake ASEs... at least 2 other Stackers have seen them now... I showed a fellow stacker the fake ASE being sold at the recent ANDA meeting in Sydney). If you are unfamiliar with ASEs you probably won't recognize it as a fake... same with Pandas, if you are unfamiliar with Pandas you probably won't recognize a fake. If you are familiar with ASEs, you'll probably notice it is a fake. If you are familiar with Pandas, you'll probably notice a fake Panda.
3. There is a reason why counterfeiters target Pandas - BECAUSE Pandas are profitable.
4. The more familiar people are with Pandas, the less of an issue counterfeiting becomes. E.g. People still accept $100USD even though this has been counterfeited many times.
5. The 2000 Panda is probably the most counterfeited Panda coin, and yet it still commands the highest price on average ($400-$3000). Why? Because informed people can distinguish between genuine and fake.
6. Do your homework. There are whole communities outside of Silverstackers dedicated to Pandas, and also identifying the latest bad bears (counterfeits). Peter Anthony's website has good writeups on bad bears, as does the China Coin Forum.
7. In my opinion the real source of Pandaphobia has nothing to do with Pandas, but is more of a heart issue, which is clearly recognized by this statement "Its hardly suprising. 90% of things coming out of china are fakes." This is a really very sad comment to make. Sinophobia cloaked with Pandaphobia.
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I just saw this thread. Great post Yennus! In my opinion, one has to spend some time doing research if one wants to invest in any asset. The pandas are no different. Once you get used to the look of the real pandas, the fakes won't be hard to spot. I've been buying a lot of panda coins on ebay over the years and I have never bought a fake coin. In addition to what Yennus said, here are a few other tips on how to spot fakes:

1) They have no denomination.
2) The quality is noticeably lower compared to real pandas. How do you compare? You can look at pictures of real pandas graded by NGC or PCGS. There are a lot on ebay or the internet.
3) Weigh the coins. Based on my experience a real 1 oz. panda will weigh around 1.16 to 1.26 troy ounces based on the weight of the capsule and mint seal (if available). A fake panda will weigh a lot less. I've also confirmed the range of the weight of the capsule and mint seal because I have some left behind when I sent my pandas for grading.

In response to the post that said that the 2000 panda is expensive at $400, in my humble opinion, there is a reason why people are willing to pay that much. First of all, the panda coins are so well made. In addition, it's a great investment. You pay a lot but the potential returns are also high. I bought a 12 oz panda in 2009 for around $450 and it was expensive at that price during that time. I also it in 2011 for $1,300 and my selling price was relatively cheap (compared to the market price in 2011), which is the reason why I sold the coin so quickly. My coin also had small white spots (which I disclosed in the listing) so I had to sell it for a lower price. I think that almost tripling your money in a span of two years is a good investment. :) That being said, I don't expect relatively common pandas (2010 and 2011) to see that kind of appreciation. However, it gives you an idea of the investment potential of pandas in general. ;)
 
dccpa said:
alor said:
just wonder how much for a BBQ Panda. :)
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Depends. If you are rich, about $100,000. If you are poor, the death penalty.
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I was hoping for a free meal, in case the zoo caught fire, then I can go in and have a taste of the BBQ Panda :p Roasted one :cool:
 
Hey Yennus my neighbor is very very HAPPY with his new 2011 100 Panda's he was patting them this afternoon :) I think he wants some 2010 Panda's now
Thanks for your help
Meeko
 
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