$13 silver might be possible
- Thread starter leon1998
- Start date
SlyGuy
Active Member
Talk is just talk. If people really believed it, they would guarantee their projections (ie, buy long or short options). The vast majority of them will not, so that is how you know it is simply their opinion.
If you google Benjamin Graham's "Mr. Market," you will have a healthy grasp of how to conceptualize market pricing and how to interact with it (if you choose to do so at all).
You shouldn't ever be upset the market is going up or down... just be very glad that it is moving up and down.
I just got back from Goldstackers and found out they were very low or sold out of several 1kg silver bars. Was told it was due to a busy couple of weeks with lots of people buying. I guess it may have something to do with big drops in stock markets.
While waiting I spoke to another customer there who look at me and said to me "we're all fearing the worst and stocking up for what's coming!". I said "yeah something like that". Funnily when I left GS and arrived at Guardin Vaults he was there and we both looked at each other again and smiled.
While waiting I spoke to another customer there who look at me and said to me "we're all fearing the worst and stocking up for what's coming!". I said "yeah something like that". Funnily when I left GS and arrived at Guardin Vaults he was there and we both looked at each other again and smiled.
Why does palladium cost a lot more then platinum? I thought they were both mainly used for autocatalysts, so wouldn't the cheapest one be preferred? What am i missing?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-set-for-record-on-china-demand-matthey-says
https://investingnews.com/daily/res...-climb-thanks-to-chinese-automotive-industry/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...t-falls-for-sixth-straight-week-idUSKCN1NL04C
https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fas...-record-on-tight-supply-bets-on-china-demand/
Palladium Demand to Climb Thanks to China’s Automotive Industry
Citigroup has projected more production shortfalls, and said in a report this week that “extreme tightness” in the palladium market could help drive prices to as high as $1 300 in the second quarter of 2019.
Palladium consumption in the devices used to clean up exhaust fumes will rise to a record in 2018 as the appetite for gasoline vehicles increases, according to a report from Johnson Matthey Plc. Chinese automotive sales are a main driver, with tougher pollution control forcing carmakers to increase the amount of precious metal they use.
“The prospect of significant growth in Chinese palladium loadings has moved closer, because it looks increasingly likely that some cities and provinces will implement” new regulations early, Peter Duncan, the general manager of market research at U.K.-based Matthey, said in the report. “This could happen as early as next year and would result in a double-digit increase in palladium consumption on Chinese cars.”
Platinum, meanwhile, will suffer a double whammy as fewer new diesel automobiles are sold and older ones are scrapped, feeding the supply-side with metal harvested from old catalytic converters. Diesel vehicles, which use more platinum, have become less popular after some automakers admitted to cheating in emissions tests to gain regulatory approval.
The platinum market will move further into surplus in 2018 as a rise in industrial demand is outweighed by the decline in autocatalyst consumption and less investment buying. Mine production will remain weak, Matthey said.
https://investingnews.com/daily/res...-climb-thanks-to-chinese-automotive-industry/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...t-falls-for-sixth-straight-week-idUSKCN1NL04C
https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fas...-record-on-tight-supply-bets-on-china-demand/
Palladium Demand to Climb Thanks to China’s Automotive Industry
Citigroup has projected more production shortfalls, and said in a report this week that “extreme tightness” in the palladium market could help drive prices to as high as $1 300 in the second quarter of 2019.
Palladium consumption in the devices used to clean up exhaust fumes will rise to a record in 2018 as the appetite for gasoline vehicles increases, according to a report from Johnson Matthey Plc. Chinese automotive sales are a main driver, with tougher pollution control forcing carmakers to increase the amount of precious metal they use.
“The prospect of significant growth in Chinese palladium loadings has moved closer, because it looks increasingly likely that some cities and provinces will implement” new regulations early, Peter Duncan, the general manager of market research at U.K.-based Matthey, said in the report. “This could happen as early as next year and would result in a double-digit increase in palladium consumption on Chinese cars.”
Platinum, meanwhile, will suffer a double whammy as fewer new diesel automobiles are sold and older ones are scrapped, feeding the supply-side with metal harvested from old catalytic converters. Diesel vehicles, which use more platinum, have become less popular after some automakers admitted to cheating in emissions tests to gain regulatory approval.
The platinum market will move further into surplus in 2018 as a rise in industrial demand is outweighed by the decline in autocatalyst consumption and less investment buying. Mine production will remain weak, Matthey said.
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non of that address the question i asked. Since both platinum and palladium have the same chemical interaction to be used as a autocatalysts, why would a company use a metal that cost a lot more?
Is it maybe that palladium was normally the cheaper metal, so everyone switch over. But now palladium cost a lot more they will switch back over to platinum, but it takes a bit of time to switch. Then palladium price will drop and platinum will go back up until an equilibrium is achieved.
Platinum is the green/red colour and palladium is the blue/purple colour.
Is it maybe that palladium was normally the cheaper metal, so everyone switch over. But now palladium cost a lot more they will switch back over to platinum, but it takes a bit of time to switch. Then palladium price will drop and platinum will go back up until an equilibrium is achieved.
Platinum is the green/red colour and palladium is the blue/purple colour.
no, the relationship does not go that way
if Russia will help out with 5% of the demand force, the price will stop increasing and the usage will continue to expand (with oil price down, more car being built)
elsewhere Pt will continue to go down until it hit the rock bottom before reversing
left right let right ...
the low of Pt is 400, so it will likely to break the 800 support and 600 support and as well test 400 support (most pessimistic picture)
low in Pd is 200, it is testing all time high of 1200 but as compared to the high of Pt of 2200+
so by the same substitution logic Pd has a lot of room to test the high 2200+ before making a 180 reversal
if Russia will help out with 5% of the demand force, the price will stop increasing and the usage will continue to expand (with oil price down, more car being built)
elsewhere Pt will continue to go down until it hit the rock bottom before reversing
left right let right ...
the low of Pt is 400, so it will likely to break the 800 support and 600 support and as well test 400 support (most pessimistic picture)
low in Pd is 200, it is testing all time high of 1200 but as compared to the high of Pt of 2200+
so by the same substitution logic Pd has a lot of room to test the high 2200+ before making a 180 reversal
I considered buying a 1 oz pt coin when the price was $780 but didn't as the spread is too large.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
People that don't believe what they say themselves have a lie not an opinion.
Spot price might certainly go lower but think its pretty much the bottom for buying physical metals. Post GFC saw $9/oz Ag (USD) but a 1kg bar here was $615ish (AUD). Issue was finding a seller. Most silver investors were underwater but happy to hold and buy more (if and when they could get it)
So how do I guess when's the bottom for physical? by following the spread (difference between buy and sell) on dealers sites. The dealer sell/retail price will only drop a little as the spot goes down but the buyback price will continue to follow the falling spot price. In other words the spread percentage will get larger. During bull runs, the spread difference as a percentage or dollar amount will narrow. Naturally more point's need to be considered with the above but the dealer's replacement costs for stock will have the biggest impact on his/her retail price and therefore on your price to purchase.
So how do I guess when's the bottom for physical? by following the spread (difference between buy and sell) on dealers sites. The dealer sell/retail price will only drop a little as the spot goes down but the buyback price will continue to follow the falling spot price. In other words the spread percentage will get larger. During bull runs, the spread difference as a percentage or dollar amount will narrow. Naturally more point's need to be considered with the above but the dealer's replacement costs for stock will have the biggest impact on his/her retail price and therefore on your price to purchase.
SLV was the result of option being exercised at $12 when spot was $8.50 total of 129 million ounces
at the time there was only one such silver holder who claimed to have sold too early
if you want the metal, there is no escaping paying the premium at the time was 40%
buying at the bottom spot price is not the same as paying the spot price for metal
So I guess when people started talking about $4 or $5/oz silver, that will be the bottom?
Avi is right in that markets are driven by sentiments - when there's extreme pessimism, the market may have bottomed... at least for now.