$13 silver might be possible

SilverDJ said:
It ultimately comes down to who has the best postage and PayPal/CC fees for a total delivered cost.
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For me it’s about the same $$ in the end. Only real advantage (if it is one) is I can walk into Ainslie and don’t have to worry about AustPost.
 
leo25 said:
I would imagine that the majority of future markets today represents a buying that doesn't want to get a commodity delivered and a seller that is not a producer. Thus making it a speculative market today.

I don't know why people still think it's mainly a nice simple fundamental market like how it was in the old days.
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Today? That's the very reason for a futures market: to be able to buy, sell, influence the price, WITHOUT needing to actually buy, sell the commodity.
Simple example: a jewelry maker orders a silver stock of 5000 oz. 5000. Not 5001 and not 10000. He wants to be sure of the price he is gonna pay, so he hedges the order along 1 futures market long position. He buys... paper silver. Why on Earth would he want to get that futures market position delivered in silver? The jewelry maker just needs 5000 ounces, not more, to do the job.
All he wants from the futures market "order" is.... dollars. Dollars that compensate for an eventual higher price on the day of payment.
The futures market is precisely the opposite of speculation: it's a method against it.
 
Oh no, the price just got higher. Should I still hold on for the $13 target price before getting the kilo sow? :D
 
Pirocco said:
Today?.
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As in current times vs 50 years ago.

Your mistake is thinking all people have a legitimate reason. Though some of the future market "today" is used for legitimate reasons, the majority is pure gambling by people that would otherwise be in a casino.

Pirocco said:
The futures market is precisely the opposite of speculation: it's a method against it.
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So to recap, the future market "was" designed to reduce speculation, but it ended up creating the ultimate speculation tool.

At some point you have to put down the text books and see reality.
 
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sgbuyer said:
Saw a link to this interesting website on the silver forum which compares paper price with "physical price" - http://didthesystemcollapse.com/
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Real money is Gold and Silver. Paper money only started having value because it used to be backed by gold several decades ago. Now it's backed by nothing except mass delusion and geopolitics.

Since the 2008 economic collapse, central banks around the world have overdosed on financial stimulus and printing money out of thin air. They have artificially suppressed the prices of gold and silver to keep the dollar delusion going.

On April 19th 2016, China locked in the dollar's death by launching their own gold price fix. For the first time in modern history there are now two prices of gold, one in the Chinese yuan and the other in the dying dollar.

If the West were to raise the price of gold, it would kill the dollar completely as it would prematurely instigate the inevitable mother of all safe haven panics.

If the East were to raise the price of gold, it would drain the West's gold reserves due to arbitrage. This would expose the West's fake gold market and kill the dollar. Doing this prematurely means the East could no longer buy gold for themselves at heavily undervalued prices for their post-collapse monetary dominance.

The eventual endgame is that the price of gold skyrockets and the dollar permanently collapses along with the global banking system and modern society as we know it. Black Friday will be everyday as the masses murder each other for a peach pit. This is sure to happen anytime between now and the end of 2018.

Don't believe it? We'll find out soon.
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Prediction date noted.
 
SilverDJ said:
Prediction date noted.
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Didn't read through the article. Anyway, I read that Silver bullion attracts 17% VAT in China. If true, then the cost of pure silver is actually at a discount on the Shanghai gold exchange.
 
leo25 said:
As in current times vs 50 years ago.

Your mistake is thinking all people have a legitimate reason. Though some of the future market "today" is used for legitimate reasons, the majority is pure gambling by people that would otherwise be in a casino.


So to recap, the future market "was" designed to reduce speculation, but it ended up creating the ultimate speculation tool.

At some point you have to put down the text books and see reality.
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I'm gonna recap your strawman: I said the futures market is designed to inflict speculators losses, it is a hedging environment and the dollars that make the hedge work against speculators, origin from the speculators. How: by driving up the price speculators pay, along the forward component of the spot price, being the design / existence reason for the futures market: ability to manipulate the price without having to actual purchase the product.
 
leo25 said:
As in current times vs 50 years ago.
Your mistake is thinking all people have a legitimate reason. Though some of the future market "today" is used for legitimate reasons, the majority is pure gambling by people that would otherwise be in a casino.
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No, it's your mistake, to describe it along your own analogy: the futures market is not the gamblers side, it's the casino bosses side, and what does the boss do: he presets/configures, on his slot machines, the winning chances for the gamblers.
And speculation has nothing to do with gambling at all, with gambling, there is no risk existing before the act of gambling - the gambling act brings the risk into existence, with speculation, there is a risk already existing before the act of speculating.
 
leo25 said:
So to recap, the future market "was" designed to reduce speculation, but it ended up creating the ultimate speculation tool.

At some point you have to put down the text books and see reality.
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Don't really catch you guys are arguing over, but my view is that paper trading has artificially depressed the price of the commodity over a long period of time, and has led to over consumption. When the supply crunch starts to have effect, the result will be a violent repricing.
 
I am going to have to try something new.
Here we go $25 silver in 3 weeks time.

I will come back and fill in the blanks as to why i said this at a later date.
Some here will already know what my reasoning is if they have read any of my previous comments so it will be interesting to see if this works.
NO MONEY IN THE GAME HERE so just thoughts.
 
sgbuyer said:
I know I shouldn't be commenting on something that I don't know much, but I find the optimism on Sydney RE on some of the other threads somewhat puzzling as compared to the pessimism over silver prices. Imagine if you could buy a house at below the cost of building it. Land is given away free, developers earn nothing out of it. People will be scared of buying it.

Not saying that Sydney RE will go down, or silver prices will go up, but sort of backs my suspicion that people are attracted to stuff at record high prices, but are scared of stuff at record low prices.

This is also true to RE in other places like Singapore, hong kong, cities in China, etc.

https://in.reuters.com/article/chin...es-accelerates-to-two-year-high-idINL3N1W3017

Perhaps if and after Silver has fallen to $13ish, we'll be talking about $10 then.
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"You should not comment on something you do not know much about"?
Well just let me tell you we are all in the same boat here mate.
We are all clueless when it comes to silver and gold pricing .
We like to think that sometimes we have an idea what is about to happen but 92.5% of the time + we are wrong.
 
Gullintanni said:
We are all clueless when it comes to silver and gold pricing.
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I used to work in a restaurant and every staff member (myself included) had a theory about when and if we would be busy.

Truth told, no one knew for certain and it would happen when it happened so you just tried to be prepared. Pretty much the same with precious metals.
 
Gullintanni said:
"You should not comment on something you do not know much about"?
Well just let me tell you we are all in the same boat here mate.
We are all clueless when it comes to silver and gold pricing .
We like to think that sometimes we have an idea what is about to happen but 92.5% of the time + we are wrong.
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Since the plunge, I’ve only bought 100 oz of low premium bars at around $15.10, actual cost price per physical oz. Had I not bought in May (yes I know, worst timing), I would have bought maybe 10 times more last month. Hoping for $13 spot to buy the kilo sow and lunar coins that I haven’t got yet. Not sure I can wait much longer.
 
tongkat said:
I used to work in a restaurant and every staff member (myself included) had a theory about when and if we would be busy.

Truth told, no one knew for certain and it would happen when it happened so you just tried to be prepared. Pretty much the same with precious metals.
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Best post in the thread so far. ^^^

Rule #1 of markets: "nobody knows anything."

The best you can really do is pick out assets that make sound sense yet have been losing or growing more slowly than other sectors... and with stocks, you want to pick equities of companies with good earnings relative to their market price (not just hype-based valuation).
 
Gullintanni said:
I am going to have to try something new.
Here we go $25 silver in 3 weeks time.

I will come back and fill in the blanks as to why i said this at a later date.
Some here will already know what my reasoning is if they have read any of my previous comments so it will be interesting to see if this works.
NO MONEY IN THE GAME HERE so just thoughts.
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Read some of your previous comments again, didn't find a clue. o_O

My thoughts are that we may see a "double whammy" - rising dollar + spike in pm at the same time. It has already happened to oil, rising oil prices + rising dollar.
 
USA dollars will surely have some inflation with this new $15 minimum wage movement from Amazon.com and the public pressure to expand it to $15/hr minimum nationwide. That always just inflates the wages all the way up the ladder of workers... which then inflates cost of goods and services, inflates bank credit to multiply the effect, and causes currency creation and inflation. So, you wipe out some businesses that don't have cash or credit reserves to weather the storm, and you end up with "higher" earnings which buy basically the same amount after a short correction period anyways. Try explaining that to an entry level worker, though. Lol.

...So, the price of metals (and basically everything else), measured in USD anyways, should go up in the medium to long term... especially if democrats win control in the 2020 general election.
 
Of course none of us can be certian where the spot price is going next but, my post mentioning the commercials being net long has been an indicator. Was that just coincidence? I certainly don't believe so

If you do believe that the futures market manipulates the spot price then it only makes sense to study it for future (no pun intended) indicators. It looks like the 'short squeeze' had started for the non-commericals which could result in substantial dollar losses on their trade (if they can't get out). The commitment of traders report closes each Tuesday and released on Friday in the US. I'll be certainly looking forward to seeing the next one!

A more friendly visual graph of the report - https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/SI*0
 
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