$13 silver might be possible
- Thread starter leon1998
- Start date
I agree with what you say, purchase price is important. It also depends on what is the purpose of buying pm. If it's for quick profit, then entry price is everything. If it's a hedge against inflation, then today's price is cheap because we're still in deflation, although that's not to say that the deflation can't get worst.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
I just ordered a monsterbox phils, causing my bank account to be under what I consider safe on the short time.
Decided to take the risk based on:
- current silvers price (below 2008's average)
- futures market hedgers net long
- futures market total net position (and thus price effect) record low
- record high 300 Moz silver in futures markets depositories - 2011 peak price year was record low of 100 Moz so inversely, why would a record high stock not mean a bottom price year?
Trying to think outside da box...
Trying to do the opposite of what most do...
Trying to go against the herd...
And I'm emotionally attached to shiny stuff especially if it's concentrated, alike money.
Greshams law, I brought my bad money into circulation to extract good money out of circulation.
Nevertheless, considering the volatility of silvers bad money denominated price, risking a firesale (ie a sale at any price) is surely not wise.
On the other hand, I don't think silver has longterm downside left. In the eighties nineties there was a huge technological advance that made production much more efficient and thus cheaper. Today, can't really see much of such a magnitude.
If we do see $13 I can complain again about bad decisions. Although maybe I'll have accumulated again some bad money to soften the pill once again.
Just like in autumn, when fruits and harvests give plenty, the wise squirrels collect them to sell them in winter to the dumb squirrels.
At least, that's the idea, seasons can change too.
Decided to take the risk based on:
- current silvers price (below 2008's average)
- futures market hedgers net long
- futures market total net position (and thus price effect) record low
- record high 300 Moz silver in futures markets depositories - 2011 peak price year was record low of 100 Moz so inversely, why would a record high stock not mean a bottom price year?
Trying to think outside da box...
Trying to do the opposite of what most do...
Trying to go against the herd...
And I'm emotionally attached to shiny stuff especially if it's concentrated, alike money.
Greshams law, I brought my bad money into circulation to extract good money out of circulation.
Nevertheless, considering the volatility of silvers bad money denominated price, risking a firesale (ie a sale at any price) is surely not wise.
On the other hand, I don't think silver has longterm downside left. In the eighties nineties there was a huge technological advance that made production much more efficient and thus cheaper. Today, can't really see much of such a magnitude.
If we do see $13 I can complain again about bad decisions. Although maybe I'll have accumulated again some bad money to soften the pill once again.
Just like in autumn, when fruits and harvests give plenty, the wise squirrels collect them to sell them in winter to the dumb squirrels.
At least, that's the idea, seasons can change too.
Gullintanni
Well-Known Member
$13 silver is only a couple of wees away MAX.
The lower lows keep coming and the bounces are weaker than i expected.
It may be as soon as Friday that we get our first serious visit to $13 and a bounce back to $14.15 and then the next week it'll be back into $13 and the bounce will not surpass $14 , perhaps $13.95.
I suggest we will be in the high $12 range come the end of November.
The lower lows keep coming and the bounces are weaker than i expected.
It may be as soon as Friday that we get our first serious visit to $13 and a bounce back to $14.15 and then the next week it'll be back into $13 and the bounce will not surpass $14 , perhaps $13.95.
I suggest we will be in the high $12 range come the end of November.
I went to GS yesterday to stock up on some more silver just in case price won't go lower. Anywhere around this price silver is a screaming buy imo.
I'm guessing November price will be back around $15-16.
SlyGuy
Active Member
Sell it all.... quickly! And sell it to me 
...not that history always repeats itself, but for rules of thumb historically:
-the first quarter (Jan-Mar) is best time to buy gold
-second quarter is best to sell your goods and assets that are doing well (people get tax returns, recovered from holiday overspending, weather is getting nice again, moods are good)
-third quarter is best to buy silver
-fourth quarter is best to buy NYSE stocks (usually see Oct market dips which last until holiday "Santa Claus push" in values)
The first rule of investing is always that "nobody knows anything," though. Bulls take the stairs but Bears jump out the window, and very few tend to see it coming. I tend to agree with "nobody knows anything" and just look for good companies or logical assets that are undervalued relative to other asset sectors, but still, trends are trends for a reason. GL
...not that history always repeats itself, but for rules of thumb historically:
-the first quarter (Jan-Mar) is best time to buy gold
-second quarter is best to sell your goods and assets that are doing well (people get tax returns, recovered from holiday overspending, weather is getting nice again, moods are good)
-third quarter is best to buy silver
-fourth quarter is best to buy NYSE stocks (usually see Oct market dips which last until holiday "Santa Claus push" in values)
The first rule of investing is always that "nobody knows anything," though. Bulls take the stairs but Bears jump out the window, and very few tend to see it coming. I tend to agree with "nobody knows anything" and just look for good companies or logical assets that are undervalued relative to other asset sectors, but still, trends are trends for a reason. GL
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I just noticed that the AUD has weakened considerably in the 2 weeks or so. As a result, the price of silver in AUD has remained virtually flat!
if silver remain +-30 cents for 2 months, just like a repeat in the end of 2015
what should be done now?
buy a bar at a time near the lower price
buy every bar possible at 13.80 all in now and sit back and come back in 2 months to check
whatever, since it is still going lower
the items you wanted is out of stock anyway
what should be done now?
buy a bar at a time near the lower price
buy every bar possible at 13.80 all in now and sit back and come back in 2 months to check
whatever, since it is still going lower
the items you wanted is out of stock anyway
Gullintanni
Well-Known Member
YES YES sell it all to you because it is such a bargain right?Sell it all.... quickly! And sell it to me
...not that history always repeats itself, but for rules of thumb historically:
-the first quarter (Jan-Mar) is best time to buy gold
-second quarter is best to sell your goods and assets that are doing well (people get tax returns, recovered from holiday overspending, weather is getting nice again, moods are good)
-third quarter is best to buy silver
-fourth quarter is best to buy NYSE stocks (usually see Oct market dips which last until holiday "Santa Claus push" in values)
The first rule of investing is always that "nobody knows anything," though. Bulls take the stairs but Bears jump out the window, and very few tend to see it coming. I tend to agree with "nobody knows anything" and just look for good companies or logical assets that are undervalued relative to other asset sectors, but still, trends are trends for a reason. GL
I have literally read threads from thousands of eager beavers just like you at different times over the years and i am betting none of them are impressed with their stacking.
Buy and hold is certainly not a reliable way to either save OR make money from silver.
Silver can be a great way to make money but it requires a large amount of work and should be considered a secondary job with the effort and time required.
Silver will have its day again and those that have bought now (AS LONG AS THEY SELL) can get their money back plus extra BUT it could be 1 year away or it could be 20 .
As for you trends i would love to see these trends shown in an historical graph so we can see how they have worked in the past.
I see plenty of people here going on about trends and technical analyses for the future yet they do not bother to show us how it has worked out in the past by posting the results of times gone past.
They only go on about the FUTURE because we can not definitively call them crazy as they say just wait and see.
Well enough time has past that these graph and tech geniuses should be able to show us how it has worked in the past to justify there present/future bs GUESSES.
Gullintanni
Well-Known Member
$14.12 as i write this.
I thinks a $0.25 spike between now and Monday and then $13 is going to be the new prefix for a while .
Edit:suffix was meant to read prefix.
I thinks a $0.25 spike between now and Monday and then $13 is going to be the new prefix for a while .
Edit:suffix was meant to read prefix.
If you look at it, in terms of SGD or AUD, the price of silver has not capitulated - the price only fallen only about 13% since May average. My bluechip stocks can fall that much in 1-2 weeks without any bad news for the stock (just follow the market). Bitcoin can fall that much in 1-2 days.
I bought 100 oz 3 weeks ago just so that I won't kick myself for not buying if the price does rebound. However, I won't do any more buying until the price falls below $12-$13. Neither will I sell because the purpose of buying silver is a long term hedge/savings. If I need cash, I'll just sell my ADRs, which I've been doing so gradually since late last year. But by then, I maybe buying platinum instead, but who knows?
I bought 100 oz 3 weeks ago just so that I won't kick myself for not buying if the price does rebound. However, I won't do any more buying until the price falls below $12-$13. Neither will I sell because the purpose of buying silver is a long term hedge/savings. If I need cash, I'll just sell my ADRs, which I've been doing so gradually since late last year. But by then, I maybe buying platinum instead, but who knows?
SlyGuy
Active Member
I agree fully that metals for long term is not a good investment. They tie up too much money, they don't cash flow, and they mostly just go sideways on the graph (withOUT paying a dividend). A high dividend stock or a piece of real estate wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if its sale value was basically static - as long as it cash flowed regularly. This is obviously how bonds (are supposed to) work. However, the metals don't do that... they just sit there, and then they periodically jump up in spot price to account for inflation of currency supplies. And you are right, that could be in 1 year or in 20 years. Nobody knows. It could be a huge spike or a small blip on the graph. You never know... so they are a poor long term investment in and of themselves.
So why do (er, why should) investors buy them? Besides hobby and savings value, the metals, esp gold and to a lesser extent, silver, are simply an inflationary hedge. Anyone with a sizable portfolio containing metals does not want the gold or silver to do well (that would mean most/all of their other stock, bond, real estate and currency investments are probably in rough shape at the time). Metals are just an inflationary hedge to cushion the bad years and make them neutral or minimally bad overall. That doesn't mean you shouldn't still aim to get them at a lower price point, though. Right now is the lowest in years.
...I love how you say that it's all guessing... and then make a guess
If you read my post, I stated that nobody knows anything when it comes to market forces. You can look at quarterly norms for retail sales, stock market, etc etc though. They are often good to be aware of when making decisions.
In reality, I think we will see deflation of everything (equities, real estate, metals, etc etc) in the near to mid term, and that will likely mean inflation afterwards - assuming more bailouts occur (which should then raise metals to account for all of the inflation bailouts should cause). I could be wrong, of course, so I simply am open to buying all assets all of the time if the price is right. I consider anything I own for sale and anything I don't own as a possible buy... but it depends on the price points. If something is pretty over-valued (ie real estate right now), I buy little or none it, and if it seems undervalued (ie metals and foreign stocks right now), I try to pick it up while it's down. Just my logic, but again "nobody knows anything." GL
Gullintanni
Well-Known Member
The only REAL good bargains are at second hand shops where if you are lucky and PERSISTENT you can pick up a kg of silver at a time for a few dollars.
I guess you could include garage sales as well but when i find jackpot silver there i can very rarely pull the trigger as i feel a need to tell the poor buggers what it is i am buying, i have no such qualms at the shops though.
Gullintanni
Well-Known Member
I like for the price but i do not care for the design.
If this is the 2oz you posted the other day i think it looks rough as guts compared to the nice 1oz version.
yeah I only considered the price, it is lowest I seen for such coin in QB
don't mind the design
its a small purchase anyway collection in Oct 2018 3 weeks away