JOHNLGALT
Well-Known Member
I think he is being sarcastic, we tend to get that way with the constant pumping of Precious Metals.
$13 silver might be possible
- Thread starter leon1998
- Start date
I think he is being sarcastic, we tend to get that way with the constant pumping of Precious Metals.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
I wasn't speaking for myself, I was quoting 2 articles from Zerohedge,
one where they judged a low Comex stock as a bullish effect on the silver price (2011),
and
one where they judged a high Comex stock as a bullish effect on the silver price (2018),
which is precisely indeed a contradiction.
It wasn't sarcasm or so, just check the 2 urls I gave:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...cord-silver-bullion-holding-extremely-bullish
and
https://www.zerohedge.com/article/c...288-million-ounces-3-drop-overnight-30-drop-s
just another proof of Zerohedge trying to make people buy silver in their shops, using whatever data they can twist in that direction, even if that data is completely different (here low, and high Comex stock).
I still remember another big twist of them, back years ago, was it 2011 or 2012, where Zerohedge claimed that the Quantitative Easing I of the Federal Reserve was actually 10 times the 1200 billion reported to the media.
This was based on an investigation (of the Fed) document by an agency named "GAO".
I searched around to locate the original document (Zerohedge typically never provide links to actual sources, they tag blue to suggest it, but it's either no url either an url to another Zerohedge article). It took me weeks, until I found, and downloaded the document from the website of a US senator named "Bernie Sanders".
And there I could see the trick that Zerohedge made to mislead its readers: in the document there was the list of loans that the Federal Reserve lend to a worldwide variety of banks, with the $ amount and the term of the loan.
Zerohedge made the total sum of all the loans there, WITHOUT taking into account the individual terms of the loans.
To illustrate this, imagine 5 loans amounting $1000 with the following terms:
1 april, $1000, 10 days
10 april, $1000, 10 days
20 april, $1000, 5 days
What does Zerohedge do: $1000 + $1000 + $1000 = $3000 total lend.
Reality: the biggest amount lend, at any moment, is here $1000.
Because the 1 april loan got paid back at 10 april, and the 10 april loan got paid back at 20 april.
Of course, the QE1 loans terms were not as simple to calculate as here, due to overlapping terms.
But the GAO did that work too, AND stressed in the document that the total was NOT term-adjusted, AND in a next table, they showed the total, term adjusted, which was precisely the 1200 billion that the Federal Reserve reported.
But Zerohedge wanted to make people think that the Fed produces 10 times the money, in order to make people falsely expect high price inflation in the years after, and hurry to their bullion shops to try to rescue their purchasing power along buying silver, gold etc.
All this is a repeat from the past, but it still serves as a red warning for potential victims (read: lose their purchasing power by buying silver in an attempt to preserve it) of Zerohedge.
one where they judged a low Comex stock as a bullish effect on the silver price (2011),
and
one where they judged a high Comex stock as a bullish effect on the silver price (2018),
which is precisely indeed a contradiction.
It wasn't sarcasm or so, just check the 2 urls I gave:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...cord-silver-bullion-holding-extremely-bullish
and
https://www.zerohedge.com/article/c...288-million-ounces-3-drop-overnight-30-drop-s
just another proof of Zerohedge trying to make people buy silver in their shops, using whatever data they can twist in that direction, even if that data is completely different (here low, and high Comex stock).
I still remember another big twist of them, back years ago, was it 2011 or 2012, where Zerohedge claimed that the Quantitative Easing I of the Federal Reserve was actually 10 times the 1200 billion reported to the media.
This was based on an investigation (of the Fed) document by an agency named "GAO".
I searched around to locate the original document (Zerohedge typically never provide links to actual sources, they tag blue to suggest it, but it's either no url either an url to another Zerohedge article). It took me weeks, until I found, and downloaded the document from the website of a US senator named "Bernie Sanders".
And there I could see the trick that Zerohedge made to mislead its readers: in the document there was the list of loans that the Federal Reserve lend to a worldwide variety of banks, with the $ amount and the term of the loan.
Zerohedge made the total sum of all the loans there, WITHOUT taking into account the individual terms of the loans.
To illustrate this, imagine 5 loans amounting $1000 with the following terms:
1 april, $1000, 10 days
10 april, $1000, 10 days
20 april, $1000, 5 days
What does Zerohedge do: $1000 + $1000 + $1000 = $3000 total lend.
Reality: the biggest amount lend, at any moment, is here $1000.
Because the 1 april loan got paid back at 10 april, and the 10 april loan got paid back at 20 april.
Of course, the QE1 loans terms were not as simple to calculate as here, due to overlapping terms.
But the GAO did that work too, AND stressed in the document that the total was NOT term-adjusted, AND in a next table, they showed the total, term adjusted, which was precisely the 1200 billion that the Federal Reserve reported.
But Zerohedge wanted to make people think that the Fed produces 10 times the money, in order to make people falsely expect high price inflation in the years after, and hurry to their bullion shops to try to rescue their purchasing power along buying silver, gold etc.
All this is a repeat from the past, but it still serves as a red warning for potential victims (read: lose their purchasing power by buying silver in an attempt to preserve it) of Zerohedge.
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I didn't know that ZH sells bullion, but one thing is I don't spend more than 30 seconds reading any article or news on the Internet. Sometimes, the more you read, the more confused you become. I only read the subject, and skim through the content and then straight to the comments. One thing good about ZH is they allow comments, unlike marketoracle which in my opinion is an even more biased site.
Why I invest in pm? Not because of ZH or any website but because I came across this article. After seeing this article, I started my research into gold and silver supply, and came to a conclusion that supply won't be increasing in the future years to come so a long term 10-20 year punt will be profitable.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ight-spot-for-billionaire-who-forecasts-crash
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
At the dozen dealers in my region (BE, NL, a few GE) I don't see a difference in availability.
Rather the opposite, plenty silver from older years, that clearly is sold back by former stackers.
And not bad prices, at least not bad considering my euro currency value, and silvers spot price.
Just about a same relative price as years ago.
I don't know if showing dealers is considered advertising nor if (not ment as such though) advertising is allowed or not, but if you want I can pm you the website of the dealer that I'm buying from, from 2014 onwards, and you can see for yourself, and the prices.
There is a very wide range of coins available, from the nineties till the last lunars.
And the best prices in my region, 5% cheaper than all others. Atm 1000 silver products and 350 gold products.
Rather the opposite, plenty silver from older years, that clearly is sold back by former stackers.
And not bad prices, at least not bad considering my euro currency value, and silvers spot price.
Just about a same relative price as years ago.
I don't know if showing dealers is considered advertising nor if (not ment as such though) advertising is allowed or not, but if you want I can pm you the website of the dealer that I'm buying from, from 2014 onwards, and you can see for yourself, and the prices.
There is a very wide range of coins available, from the nineties till the last lunars.
And the best prices in my region, 5% cheaper than all others. Atm 1000 silver products and 350 gold products.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
No discussion, just 1 example, you'll get the point - relation with your article:
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/08/15/gold-bull-paulson-cuts-spdr-stake-by-half-amid-bea
What those billionaires / whoever suggest others to do, is not necessarely what they do themselves. Rather the CONTRARY. And it doesn't take a long thought process to understand why.
What data did you collect to state that the silver supply won't be increasing in the future years, and what is your start time point for that not increasing?
The past decade, alot silver was bought and hoarded to store value.
Unlike industrial use, which renders some silver to economically unrecoverable status, that will surely be all thrown again for sale.
And that is always the case for monetary usages of anything.
Meaning that every price trend that the hoarding causes, is bound to be undone later.
Do you think the hoards of the last decade got sold? I don't. That's just what published data shows.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
I do that too, with my 10 kilo lunar of 2011.
It's a rabbit not a cat tho.
It really depends, we still have to think for ourselves independently. Some of them we shouldn't even bother with at all, for example, hedge fund managers that made billions managing other people's money (which includes buying gold), a lot of what they say is to push up the price so you would buy what they want to dump. However, there are some billionaires that actually invest for the long term, often using their own cash. Just like Warren Buffett.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
What I learnt is this: never rely on what is claimed, even if it seems to be supported by data they give.
Because, they can make a selection, and you don't know what they left out.
That's why I searched together a whole lot of data, about silver, gold and some other / currency markets.
And I save it in text files.
Because if some webpage of site disappears, byebye the source you had.
And also, it allows you to compare old versions with new, as to see if they made any edit.
And surprisingly, that latter occurred ALOT.
Noone would think they change figures 5 or more years after their first publishment. Well they do.
World Gold Council, Silver Institute, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, they adjust figures upto many years later.
To give a remarkable example: gold, year 2013, central bank & other institutions' purchases or sales, as reported by the WGC.
In report 2014Q1, 2013 was 386.6 tonnes bought.
In report 2014Q2, 2013 was 409.3 tonnes bought.
In report 2015Q1, 2013 was 625.5 tonnes bought.
In report 2016Q4, 2013 was 623.8 tonnes bought.
Look at the difference between the first report, and the last. 623.8 versus 386.6. Central banks purchased 61% more than reported in the beginning.
Now think about it.
The WGC releases a report. A myriad sites look at the data to then place articles about it on their sites, complete with conclusions, comparison with the past and prospections about the future.
Then 3 years later, the figure ends up adjusted with 60%.
And all those sites, well, they don't seem to bother, they don't look back, just like a horse with flaps attached so that it can only look forward 10 degrees haha.
Silver same story.A thousand articles based on seriously wrong data,
The Feds various data sets, dito.
Apparently, ALOT doesn't get reported fast to those data acquisition companies (alike Thomson Reuters). Sometimes as slow as a half decade. Hey John it's me, can you check your archive, 5 years ago, I gave you a sales figure - it was wrong, can you edit it to ...
Or, got attached a flag "confidential for X years".
Today I coincidentally came across some copypasted parts of a discussion 7 years ago on the Kitco forum, during that crazy vertical runup to $50, every day a dollar higher, weeks in a row.
At the time, that runup baffled me too, but now, with hindsight and plenty data available, it reads as surrealistic as discovering yourself being on some planet other than Earth.
And that illustrates, how misleading works: plenty articles, repeated enough, all pointing in the same direction, not because all the data elements supported eachother, but because the data elements were tampered to point in that direction. Normally, one gathers data, then derives conclusions from it, misleaders do the opposite, they start with a lie, to then gather selectively data that supports the lie.
Billionaires that became as such purely by trading products in the role of storage of value, Buffett included, don't invest in products. They invest in peoples stupidity.
Because, they can make a selection, and you don't know what they left out.
That's why I searched together a whole lot of data, about silver, gold and some other / currency markets.
And I save it in text files.
Because if some webpage of site disappears, byebye the source you had.
And also, it allows you to compare old versions with new, as to see if they made any edit.
And surprisingly, that latter occurred ALOT.
Noone would think they change figures 5 or more years after their first publishment. Well they do.
World Gold Council, Silver Institute, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, they adjust figures upto many years later.
To give a remarkable example: gold, year 2013, central bank & other institutions' purchases or sales, as reported by the WGC.
In report 2014Q1, 2013 was 386.6 tonnes bought.
In report 2014Q2, 2013 was 409.3 tonnes bought.
In report 2015Q1, 2013 was 625.5 tonnes bought.
In report 2016Q4, 2013 was 623.8 tonnes bought.
Look at the difference between the first report, and the last. 623.8 versus 386.6. Central banks purchased 61% more than reported in the beginning.
Now think about it.
The WGC releases a report. A myriad sites look at the data to then place articles about it on their sites, complete with conclusions, comparison with the past and prospections about the future.
Then 3 years later, the figure ends up adjusted with 60%.
And all those sites, well, they don't seem to bother, they don't look back, just like a horse with flaps attached so that it can only look forward 10 degrees haha.
Silver same story.A thousand articles based on seriously wrong data,
The Feds various data sets, dito.
Apparently, ALOT doesn't get reported fast to those data acquisition companies (alike Thomson Reuters). Sometimes as slow as a half decade. Hey John it's me, can you check your archive, 5 years ago, I gave you a sales figure - it was wrong, can you edit it to ...
Or, got attached a flag "confidential for X years".
Today I coincidentally came across some copypasted parts of a discussion 7 years ago on the Kitco forum, during that crazy vertical runup to $50, every day a dollar higher, weeks in a row.
At the time, that runup baffled me too, but now, with hindsight and plenty data available, it reads as surrealistic as discovering yourself being on some planet other than Earth.
And that illustrates, how misleading works: plenty articles, repeated enough, all pointing in the same direction, not because all the data elements supported eachother, but because the data elements were tampered to point in that direction. Normally, one gathers data, then derives conclusions from it, misleaders do the opposite, they start with a lie, to then gather selectively data that supports the lie.
Billionaires that became as such purely by trading products in the role of storage of value, Buffett included, don't invest in products. They invest in peoples stupidity.
Back then in 2011, if you would have said that one could create a digital currency that would be more valuable than gold, people would have said you're crazy. Similarly, tulip bulbs were more valuable than gold at one time. Anything could be speculated and imagined to be more valuable than gold, tulips, maybe cabbages and roses could all be more valuable than gold.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
And a couple months after, the digital currencies value halved. Then doubled. Then halved again. Then quadrupled. Then halved. Then doubled. Then dropped to a quarter. And so on.Back then in 2011, if you would have said that one could create a digital currency that would be more valuable than gold, people would have said you're crazy. Similarly, tulip bulbs were more valuable than gold at one time. Anything could be speculated and imagined to be more valuable than gold, tulips, maybe cabbages and roses could all be more valuable than gold.
Just like gold.
Speculation re-allocates resources in time. The stockpiling / destockpiling dampens the price effect of surpluses and shortages, resulting in a more stable price trend.
Misleading is the opposite, it causes/makes bigger surpluses and shortages, and destabilizes price trends.
In order for the whales to cash out, you need to lure fools in. To lure fools in, you need to buy your own cryptos to push up the price. This is how the game works.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
This is a example of a whale:
$45.5 20 april 2011 "A Whale of a Wednesday............45+"
$38 5 may 2011, 05:58 PM
"A 5 minute call to my bullion dealer. A little friendly haggling over price, and the deal was done. Truck picked up my silver on Wed, funds wired to my account today. You need a very good relationship with your dealer. I've talked to him at least once a week for almost 10 years."
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Rechecked the stocks etc I monitored daily until 2-3 years ago.
Today I rethought things.
- Comex stock sits on record (afaik, 2011+) high
- plenty silver for sale at dealers, including old years
- despite Comex silver hedge on a 20K low
- silver forum activity still that horse and 3 sheeps.
- ETF stocks still hanging at their end bull market level.
- my dealer processed my orders 5 mins after checking out - must have nothing else to do.
So I digged the $13 wait, and made a last silver purchase, with ample fiat left.
My 2018 addition has thus been 6 lunar2018 kilo's and 755 'athenian owl' 1ozzers.
To those that await $13, GOOD LUCK!
Today I rethought things.
- Comex stock sits on record (afaik, 2011+) high
- plenty silver for sale at dealers, including old years
- despite Comex silver hedge on a 20K low
- silver forum activity still that horse and 3 sheeps.
- ETF stocks still hanging at their end bull market level.
- my dealer processed my orders 5 mins after checking out - must have nothing else to do.
So I digged the $13 wait, and made a last silver purchase, with ample fiat left.
My 2018 addition has thus been 6 lunar2018 kilo's and 755 'athenian owl' 1ozzers.
To those that await $13, GOOD LUCK!
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Of course one has to frontrun those he's trying to mislead.
Bitcoin, and the whole -alike dozens new that appeared later (for the obvious reason), are basically frontruns at their start. Also the reason for all the new, a start from zero is the easiest / most rewarding frontrun. IF you can convince followers, ofc.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
I googled for iran oil gold, found this:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/16/iran-oil-trumps-sanctions-create-crude-trading-boom-in-china.html
... but they used trading volume as judgement basis.
My experience is that the use of trading volume to make claims, is quite often a misrepresentation.
It's a typical Silver Doctors trick, they compare trading volume with annual production, as in "an entire annual US silver production was traded in a single day".
That, is purely scam. It completely ignores that a single quantity underlying of the derivative, can be traded more than 1 time on a day. A single silver futures contract of 5000 oz, can be traded ten, hundred and thousand times on a single day, yet the required amount silver (if needed anyway, since futures nearly always end in delivery of dollars not in delivery of the underlying product) is just that 5000 oz.
With 5000 oz, one can generate a daily trading volume of halve the entire annual world production, by trading it 100000 times on the day.
"High frequency trading" can generate millions trades on a single day.
So one has to be wary to accept claims based on volume.
emu does drop ?
trading volume is not =/= the total oil exported/consumed (is the amount of gold exchanged for oil)
trading volume is not =/= the total oil exported/consumed (is the amount of gold exchanged for oil)
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
And my owls seem to hang in "Processing" for the third day.
My first kilocoins purchase was delivered the day after payment received.
If that would have been the same for the 1ozzers, I'd have received them yesterday.
I wonder, I ordered the total in 4 orders, everytime I bought the total avail, without expecting (on a sunday!) that avail again becoming > 0 the next day, or in case the last 3 orders, 2 times that same sunday.
Maybe, after noticing me ordering again, they just edited their stock up without actually having them in stock.
Happened to me before, I specifically asked if all the kilo's I intended to orderwere in stock. Yes Yes Yes. To then - after order placement - tell me 2 short, and I had to opt for a couple kookaburra kilocoins I don't like.
So won't receive them before the weekend, pita.
My first kilocoins purchase was delivered the day after payment received.
If that would have been the same for the 1ozzers, I'd have received them yesterday.
I wonder, I ordered the total in 4 orders, everytime I bought the total avail, without expecting (on a sunday!) that avail again becoming > 0 the next day, or in case the last 3 orders, 2 times that same sunday.
Maybe, after noticing me ordering again, they just edited their stock up without actually having them in stock.
Happened to me before, I specifically asked if all the kilo's I intended to orderwere in stock. Yes Yes Yes. To then - after order placement - tell me 2 short, and I had to opt for a couple kookaburra kilocoins I don't like.
So won't receive them before the weekend, pita.
