This story is heating up and could have major implications. A Sovereign Nation was just invaded. Russia is rising and NOBODY is willing to do anything about it. UN is hiding (of course), USA's leadership is talking but yet just golfing, the rest of the Europe is concerned about their energy sources and not saying much so far. Could we see this push a potential "war conflict" premium into the metals like silver?
Might be a bump in prices over the next couple of weeks but not much more. Putin will not escalate beyond chest beating for he knows if he does, US will impose economic sanctions. US could wipe Russia off face of the earth in like 1.2 seconds if U.S. wanted to...Russia is no military threat to U.S. I'm not saying I like this fact and I certainly am against any wars....just stating the facts as I see them. . .
Sanctions? What in particular would hurt Russia? They have all the various natural resources, and they have PLENTY of partners that will not follow Sanctions (China, etc) --- Thus this isn't a legit option IMO. USA wiping out Russia with a click of a button. Okay, I'm not here to say that the USA isn't the most powerful, but let's be honest. Russia is no Iraq/Iran/Afghan, they are Modern, they are wealthy. Any conflict as the potential of being a WWIII. Nobody wants that. Oil/Nat Gas will be impacted quickly I think, and if the war drums start to beat Gold will shoot higher.
Russia has an economy based mainly on energy exports. A saction would hurt them. China is not ready to defend Russia and what Russian allies are going to help a floundering Russian economy??? The sanctions will take form mainly as freezes of cash flow in the Central Banks. The US has learned a lot about how to enact economic sanctions over the past 2 decades and especially in 2013. Iran suffered. The U.S. is very capable of putting a big hurt on Russia through economic sanctions. Why do you think Russia has been so feckless in other areas of conflict right on its borders over the past decade or so? They fear the imposition of economic sanctions at this point. .
With comments like silvermed makes, I am reminded of those uninformed people in the US during the 1970's and 80's who used to claim the the Soviet Union was just as stromng militarily as the US and these same people fooled themselves into believing the viability of the "cold war" rhetoric long after that term originated. Of course, in time, even these superstition believers realized that the Soviet Union was not even a threat to the rebels in Afghanistan, let alone the U.S. Russia today still comes no where near the capability of the West and China is not going to stick out its neck for Russia at this time. That could change 20 years down the road....but it won't happen today. .
Typical of a gung ho American, what exactly have the US achieved in Afghanistan anwser sweet FA, same as everyone else including the UK.And as for Obama he will be as much use as a chocolate fireguard in this situation in the Ukraine. Lets all hope this can come back from the brink but don't kid yourself the US and EU will sort this out.
I highly doubt the US is going to repeat such historical error. I rather think both / all involved governments gonna work together very well instead. Sanctions against banana republics / small fish yes, but big ones? Heh, they will realize the cost will end up as far outweighting the benefit, and chose friendly political eggs instead. United against the populations!
Disagree as an Eastern European expat, Russia needs oil above $110 to be viable, without it, it is toast it can't pay its bills, sanctions will hit Russia hard and its oligarchs have moved themselves and their money to London. Also a lot of their minor rich have suddenly become Cypriots, Cyprus will let any Russian with a certain amount of money be fast tracked to citizenship and an EU passport. Putin's problem is that he has to be this aggressive strong leader or their will be nobody left who can get out. Ukraine has 6 million people less than when the USSR folded and they have gone westward. It is going to be interesting, I did over three years in Ukraine and have friends out there, so am a touch worried about their safety.
I cannot imagine even komrade barak being stupid enough to take America into conflict even before her troops are fully out of Afghanistan. Troops on the ground in Europe is beyond comprehension, and I doubt "the people" would stand for it, and the Democrats face a Congressional Election later this year. Sabre rattling perhaps, but no more. JMO OC
I realise I have got a little off message with my response, yes I do see it affecting precious metals, the possibility is to make them a safe haven in times of trouble and this is what I think will happen. Money will pour into precious metals, probably as a blip before a diplomatic solution is agreed.
@ motorbikez, I am not a gung ho American at all. If you read my post clearly, I never stated that I am in favor of sanctions or war. In fact, I am opposed to both especially when it's imposed by the most powerful imperialist nation on the planet. I firmly believe that a uni-gov't world led by hegemonic capitalists is actually the worst POSSIBLE (not only) future for this planet. All I was expressing is that the US is willing and ready to impose economic sanctions on Russia. I believe there would be more to gain for the ruling class in the U.S. by imposing such sanctions than by working things out with respect for Russia's economical (which is what this is ultimately all about for Russia) desires. Ukraine is important to Russia economically more than anything else because losing influence over Ukraine represents many things to the Russian leadership. .
Black swan event. The ex soviet states would certainly back Ukraine in war, fearing otherwise they would be next. Ukraine once had 1000 nuclear warheads that they returned to Russia. I wonder if they returned them all? If there's war prices will jump. I think you'll see a rise today.
You just reminded me why I think Americans are Arrogant, self absorbed, trigger happy Arseholes ... who haven't learnt anything from history ... Thanks for that, it had slipped my mind ...
I'd say there'd be a bigger impact on AUD prices that AU/AG prices. Interesting to watch currencies lately. Hot spots like Turkey and Ukraine have seen their currencies tank severely, non-core currencies like Russia and Australia have softenend, while USD, CHF and EUR still remain relatively strong. JPY has a soft underbelly and CNY dropped over 1% last week against the USD. Agree that Russia needs high energy prices, but unless there's a way to tank energy prices (get Iranian oil on the global market, Saudis pump more, global economy tank to reduce demand, etc.) then a floor may already be set. Europe is somewhat captive to Russian energy. Will become a much bigger issue if the oil/gas is not flowing come the next northern winter. The scary thing is if oil imports were stopped for some reason (i.e., conflict) then petrol in Oz may run out within two weeks! If that happens expect a MAJOR spike to fill up your car and flow-on impacts to consumer goods.
US takes about 5% of Russian export 10% go to CHina and Japan 60%(!!!) go to Europe and it is mostly gas and oil now let's imagine they start sanctions ... US is not hurt but Europe will freeze as there's no other sources of oil (Americans destroyed almost every alternative in Middle East). That's why I am saying that Europe will not start sanctions ... and the most sober country in EU - Germany, understands it, thus they stopped any calims to make Russia leave G8. There're two gas/oil roots that are going to be started in 2015, and they will go around Ukraine, that's why they escalated conflict so that Russia and EU don't have alternatives. But Russia is ruled by the man with strong balls and they didn't expected this kind of action. Russia is a big dog and can play the same game US does ... BTW they are showing it right now. Moreover Russia just outsmarted the West - being first to step in the country and not allowing any NATO troops in Ukraine. If NATO were first it would be extremely difficult for Russia to do what they did, but now it is difficult for the West to do the same. In general Ukraine lost the most productive assets of their country - the regions that earn the leaving for Ukraine are about to leave or going to make exclusive agreements. P.S. BTW there will be no war P.P.S. Ukraine blamed Russia for 3 months ... RUssia took step forward so that those blames are reasonable.))
INTRIGUING interview with Dr. Paul Craig Roberts on this topic. Why did Putin really go into Ukraine> http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2014/3/1_Dr._Paul_Craig_Roberts.html
I like Russia, they gave up all their nuclear weapons, they were the first men in space and they invented vodka! isn't there already political stuff happening in sth africa? now Russia? I bet it's the rothchilds, they probably bought a ship load of palladium and are fixing to make a profit. just watch palladium go from here..
