Platinum price decline: to invest now or not?

Discussion in 'Platinum' started by TreasureHunter, May 25, 2019.

  1. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Bull market = Pd
    Bear market = Pt
    ugly bear similar to silver

    all are at the moments
     
  2. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think it depends on your portfolio as platinum is risky and if your portfolio is mostly bonds, cash and gold like me, dollar cost averaging a little platinum won't hurt.

    I first bought platinum a year ago, a couple of QB griffins and dragons for about $900 a coin. On hindsight, it was very cheap and no brainer but at that time no one is interested in platinum as an investment. I bought them as I liked QB coins and I find the Platinum griffin very pretty. Subsequently, after gold spiked in July 2020, platinum followed in late August. I increased my platinum stack, basically DCA upwards as the price rose.
     
  3. slavaja

    slavaja Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Platinum has taken a beating $1400 aud. Glad I've sold mine
     
  4. openeyes

    openeyes Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Agreed. I think platinum will get slaughtered in the short to medium term.
     
  5. pennys

    pennys Member

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    I seriously researched buying pt the week before last. There is so little use of it outside of labs. I put it in the same category of ag, both in massive glut.
     
  6. slavaja

    slavaja Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yeah the only hope I see for Platinum is fuel cell.
     
  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just like ag, pt is a byproduct, for the case of pt, a byproduct of pd and rh. Pd and pt are mined together at almost the same ratio in South Africa. If you could imagine every ounce mined in South Africa, 1/2 ounce is pd that now fetches $2600/oz. some of it is rh. South African mines are now insanely profitable.
     
  8. pennys

    pennys Member

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    Insanely corrupt. Government corruption and withholding electricity is a major factor for high price. But its being used in applications where it can be easily recycled. Seems to me like there is more going on with pd than meets the eye. I didn't understand it so I stayed away.
     
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  9. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think pd is a physical markets. You can’t short sell pd if there aren’t any pd to buy back. :D

    If I were a car manufacturer, I’ll be stocking up as much pd as possible even at the current high price before the bug gets to South Africa.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
  10. pennys

    pennys Member

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    Just a hunch that Pd demand is coming from something other than cars and electronics. It's not a very transparent market. May be I'm completely wrong.
     
  11. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Previously, I did consider that the Chinese are buying it for smuggling wealth out of China. It's easier to smuggle kilobars of Pd out of China than gold bars. But Pd didn't even stop rising with the CNY and then virus shutdowns so the demand is not just from China.

    It may really be a supply shortage situation and the market has gone physical where short selling is no longer possible. If you can't short, the price will just continue to rise as long as there is demand for it in fabrication of autocatalysts. Of course, I maybe wrong.

    Another thing which I've concluded is it may not be so easy to switch to platinum for autocat. Eventually, what may cause the switch is a total break in supply of pd from South Africa which could cause governments to change the emission rules to allow for platinum. Although there's no indication that this will happen but we've seen in China that rules can be changed overnight if they want, without any advance warning.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
  12. slavaja

    slavaja Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Looks like I made the right decision selling pt at $1320 and buying gold at $2150
     
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  13. slavaja

    slavaja Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    PT getting hammered might buy some if it goes down to $1000 aud
     
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  14. pennys

    pennys Member

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    I very much doubt a return to Pt. It would be extremely expensive for both engineering and legal in the era of homologation.
     
  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  16. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  17. slavaja

    slavaja Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Looks like platinum puked on itself. 650usd here it comes
     
  18. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Britain bought a record amount of Russian gold last year, spending over $5 BILLION https://www.rt.com/business/481903-russia-uk-gold-sales/

    In addition to gold, Russia also increased the export of platinum (doubled to $936 million) and silver (2.5 times, to $100 million) to the UK.
     
    Last edited: Feb 29, 2020
  19. pennys

    pennys Member

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    I really don't believe Pt is a feasible substitute for Pd unless Pt price fell maybe into double digits. The costs of substitution would be absolutely massive i.e. re-tuning engines and meeting EU an USA-CA emission regs and we're only talking $100 of Pd in your average $30,000 car.
     
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  20. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    In this case, shouldn’t we be buying pd instead as the price can easily rise to $10k per ounce since pd is still in deficit, supply is shrinking and it has no substitute? The investment appeal for pd would be much higher than silver which is in excess supply.

    There are all sorts of reports on the Internet for and against pt with respect to autocat. But I only believe in history which showed that the price of pd has crashed 20 years ago after manufacturers started using pt instead.

    I've uploaded a long term price chart for palladium.

    [​IMG]

    https://www.macrotrends.net/2542/palladium-prices-historical-chart-data
     
    Last edited: Feb 29, 2020

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