Platinum price decline: to invest now or not?

Discussion in 'Platinum' started by TreasureHunter, May 25, 2019.

  1. mongrelmaple

    mongrelmaple Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Platinum breaches $1000USD for the first time in nearly 2 years...

    The bullish view I took on platinum about a year ago is looking good for now! :cool:

    56BBB7D6-210A-446D-BFEF-9A5E428189F1.png
     
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  2. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hoping to buy more yesterday later in the day, was looking at it at $980 in the morning and it flew off before I can act!

    I’m quite sure pt is going to be worth more than gold one day but the spread and not knowing if the dealer will buy back is preventing me for making a bigger buy.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2020
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  3. silverhair

    silverhair Well-Known Member

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    Just made my first Pt purchase, figured it cant hurt to have a little variety in the stack.
     
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  4. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

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    Slowly,but surely...you can't go wrong!
     
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  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just be mentally prepared for a slam down. If you look at the chart, the zigzagging is worst than silver. But overall it’s trending up.
     
  6. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Pd is +$500 since the start of his year
     
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  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    From the look of it, $3k or even $4k palladium is not impossible now?
     
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  8. silverhair

    silverhair Well-Known Member

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    What will happen when the new supplies from Russia come on to market? They have some very very large new finds being developed.....
     
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  9. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    This is indeed a risk but the news had been around for many years with claims of billions sunk into new pd and pt mines. Russia is the largest has been the largest supplier of pd, but the supply has been stagnant for the last couple of years - hence the rising price of palladium. Meanwhile, the Supply of platinum from Russia for which Russia is a very small producer, has been falling.

    [​IMG]
    https://matthey.com/-/media/pgm-market-report-february-2019.pdf

    Sometimes we need to consider news as propaganda. Such news might be to scare competition? If you’re a banker for a South African mine, after reading such news, will you dare to lend billions for a new platinum or palladium project in South Africa?

    The bigger risk to pt, in my opinion, is a 2008 style stock market/deflation bust that will bring down prices significantly, even if temporarily. An implosion of the pd bubble might also have the same effect. The only way to counter this is by cost averaging but this has its limitation in a rising market - it will be far better to back up the truck when pt was $800.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2020
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  10. Coins A-Z

    Coins A-Z Active Member

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    What if, to get back at U.S. for trespasses such as sanctions upon Russia, attacks on Iran, tariffs on China, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, the BRICS nations as a collective, decide to withhold releasing certain precious metals it mines onto the market for an indefinite period of time. Russia and South Africa alone produce more than 85% of global Platinum production. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_platinum_production This could mean that supply is choked off to a potentially significant degree, raising prices significantly if demand doesn't curtail.

    Several weeks ago, on another social media platform, I predicted that Platinum would hit USD $1,300/oz in 2020. A bold prediction for sure.....but I believe 2020 is the year that Platinum prices will make big moves up.

    Who would have thought 6 months ago (when Platinum was struggling to tread the $800 level for quite some time), that this early in 2020, Platinum would surpass the $1,020/oz mark (a notable 27% increase).....not too many people I think.

    Platinum to da Moon!
     
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  11. Coins A-Z

    Coins A-Z Active Member

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    Yes, I've been buying Platinum in 2019 as well......I'm not going to have the regret of missing out on a great buying opportunity.
     
  12. Coins A-Z

    Coins A-Z Active Member

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    CB's were hoarding gold every time gold prices went lower......it's a myth that just because CB's have gold that therefore gold is a better way to invest your money. And I'm a gold holder myself.

    My point is, it's largely irrelevant to the market value of gold that CB's have gold in their vaults in the same way that it's largely irrelevant to the market value of Platinum that CB's likely have no Platinum in their vaults.

    I've purchased much more Platinum than gold in 2019 and I'm going to continue to buy Platinum in 2020 till it hits my targeted price point or till I have completed my foundational stack of Platinum....whichever comes first.
     
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  13. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    the real bull is in Palladium , up 169.50 at 2480.50
     
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  14. silverhair

    silverhair Well-Known Member

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    I i have to ask myself with the prices for Pd and its friend Rhodium going sky high, will it be the push the industry needs to retool to go back to using Pt for the motor vehicle production usage?

    It seems they swapped over from Pt to Pd years ago because Pt became too expensive, now its the other way around although the price differential is not as great as it was back then and emission laws are more favorable to Pd being used because the EU is so very strict on what is acceptable.

    its a complex topic that i shall enjoy exploring with you all over the coming year.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2020
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  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So far there hasn’t been any news on the internet but I believe conversion is already underway, but it won’t be announced until the last moment because announcing it earlier has no benefits for autocat makers as it will only drive up platinum prices.

    If you know how traditional big companies and regulators work, they are very slow - just look at 737 Max. It will take more than just higher pricing to force a change. Maybe a supply shock, auto makers can’t even get the metal, this will really push them hard because their customers - the car makers will be mad if they can’t deliver. The losses will be many times much more than just the high metal prices if factory production lines are disrupted.

    The key is that palladium price remains as high as possible relative to platinum and for as long period as possible.

    If this doesn’t play out, we still can wait for fuel cell but this will be a much longer wait. Either way, it’s a winner eventually.
     
    Last edited: Jan 19, 2020
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  16. Coins A-Z

    Coins A-Z Active Member

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  17. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  18. slavaja

    slavaja Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Does anyone still think Platinum is a buy atm or wait till everything goes to crap first.
     
  19. minimilled

    minimilled Active Member

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    1st thought = crap first

    That didn’t stop me from looking for a 1oz Perth mint dragon item that has sold out for the main part. I am confident this will be sought after in a Pt bull.

    Since Pt supply is mostly limited to a few countries, one of which is South Africa, from a Machiavellian/mercenary point of view, a downturn might actually be welcome, especially if transient. The reason being that South Africa has a communist government and the hard left (Malema) might gain traction in a recession. That is going to lead to chaos there and the communists will try and eat the rich. That might shut supply down.

    If it is a relatively short global recession, say a year or two, then Pt might come right down due to lack of demand and a flight to “safe havens”. Then, in an upswing, if supply can’t come online due to political events in South Africa, you might find a nice squeeze to propel Pt forward for a flip.
     
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  20. silverhair

    silverhair Well-Known Member

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    Wont the forced adoption of EV's push down demand for PGM's used in industrial applications since its the vast bulk of demand?
     

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