Platinum price decline: to invest now or not?

Discussion in 'Platinum' started by TreasureHunter, May 25, 2019.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    2,322
    Likes Received:
    49
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Treasure Island
    Hi,

    Platinum has fallen from the 1300-1800 USD range, where it oscillated in 2010-2014.
    It even hit 2200 USD back in 2008.

    So at just above 800 $ an ounce, it seems relatively cheap.

    Is this a good buying opportunity for a 10-20 year investment? Would you advise to buy in?

    Could platinum be a good investment for the sake of speculation?

    I'm thinking of later gains, not necessarily for a "safe haven" investment, for which gold is probably a lot more stable.

    It hasn't been so low since 2004, and 2009 if I'm not misaken - whn its price played in the 800's for a brief period. Though, it's been in the 500-600 $ range in the early 2000's.

    If I look at the past 5-10 years, it's certainly a downtrend, but the 20 year chart shows terrible volatility. It's up-n-down almost like silver. Not sure how this metal behaves, as I've never owned, not do I know what to expect.

    Could platinum climb much higher?

    Russian mines, South African mines were affected in recent years be various crises (sanctions on Russia, protests at South African mines) etc., but not sure about why prices still dipped, since demand should have kept up. (And driven the prices upwards, potentially...).
     
  2. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    6,867
    Likes Received:
    977
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    it's just a rebound. the trend is down will continue for a while. just like silver...
    wish there a change in trend but not yet
     
  3. prospect

    prospect Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2019
    Messages:
    102
    Likes Received:
    115
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Location:
    Melbourne, Australia
    The future price of platinum and palladium will be largely dependant on the strength or weakness of the automobile industries,
    as they are both more industrial metals than precious metals.
    So, if you think that the auto industry will continue to grow and prosper in the future then, by all means, invest in platinum.
    Personally, I myself think that we are headed for a 30-year depression and economic collapse from 2020 to 2050 which will
    decimate most industries particularly the new car manufacturing one.
    That is why I have sold all my larger platinum and palladium coins and now and only keep some numismatic 1/10 and 1/20 oz
    coins which sell quite well on eBay at a high premium.
    In the bleak future, I only see gold as the star performer, with silver a distant second.
    The fact that worlds central banks are purchasing large amounts of gold and not the other precious metals also should be
    a good indicator where the future action in the precious metals will be.
     
    Ag and SlyGuy like this.
  4. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2014
    Messages:
    3,459
    Likes Received:
    544
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Australia
    My thoughts as well. I'm pretty much only buying gold now.
     
    SlyGuy likes this.
  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    847
    Likes Received:
    316
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Singapore
    I’m keen on pt so I’ve been reading up on platinum and palladium and it appears that even though SA miners are losing money on pt, they still mine for it as a by product for the much more profitable pd. As long as pd prices remain high, the supply side will not fall even if prices fall further.

    I only got a 1 oz Griffin pt, it’s the most beautiful coin in my collection, beats even the 1 oz gold QBs, which btw are very pretty to begin with. Before I got this, I thought that pt is just like silver but I’m wrong, it’s like comparing plastic crystal with diamonds. I can’t say for industrial use but pt as jewellery has a market.
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2019
  6. SlyGuy

    SlyGuy Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2018
    Messages:
    255
    Likes Received:
    158
    Trophy Points:
    43
    Location:
    USA
    As was mentioned, gold is probably the buy... superior liquidity and potential. I'm basically only buying gold... token amounts of silver. Fwiw, I have also been out of logical physical space for silver for years now.

    Platinum has a small market (lack of liquidity), so it never made sense to me. That means that not only do you have to try to time the buy... you also might not be able to sell when you want (and for what you want). At least silver and gold have constant buyers.

    When it comes to stocks, bonds, commodity, house, whatever... be careful with the "it has gone so low, it can't go lower" thinking (and the opposite as well). If it's not at zero, it can go lower. If it's not at infinity, it can go higher. GL
     
  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    6,867
    Likes Received:
    977
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    i treated Pt the same way as Pd
    Pd cost twice as much in spread, but bargain price is still up ahead, there is no bottom yet...unlike silver/gold
     
  8. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    847
    Likes Received:
    316
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Singapore
    I treat pt the same way as i treat ag, metals that costs more to mine than to sell, but are nonetheless still mined as a byproduct of profitable base metals - pd for the case of pt. It will be interesting to see what will happen to pd as the trade war progresses...
     
  9. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    847
    Likes Received:
    316
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Singapore
    The price has exploded since your post. As always, pt don't stay at the $800 level for too long.

    Hopefully, you have got what you wanted. ;)
     
  10. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    847
    Likes Received:
    316
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Singapore
  11. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    6,867
    Likes Received:
    977
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    companies would be out of business if technological leap is allowed to happen so fast
    it double every year, and the speed to just participate in the next generation technology allow the left behind people to catch up on the cheap
     
  12. Ipv6Ready

    Ipv6Ready Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2016
    Messages:
    3,477
    Likes Received:
    525
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    North Sydney
    Consider PT and PD as expensive base metal with little future.
    As for electric cars it’s a stepping stone to Hydrogen cars.
    Hydrogen cars will take the win. Much like very few gas stations had LPG pump in 1980 within a decade all stations will have hydrogen as main fuel.

    Cheap, clean and fast refuel.
     
  13. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    6,867
    Likes Received:
    977
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    if Hydrogen is needed, then Palladium would be is use and Uranium for the nuclear reactors
    if the waste is water vapor, then not sure what can be done with Pt
     
  14. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    847
    Likes Received:
    316
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Singapore
    Yes pd can also be used for hydrogen instead of pt. There had been some preliminary research on using pd for hydrogen vehicles when pd was $200-$300/oz.

    In my opinion, no one really knows the future. Pt can be $400/oz as you say or $4000/oz in 10 years.

    https://newatlas.com/alakai-skai-hydrogen-vtol-air-taxi/59911/
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019
  15. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    6,867
    Likes Received:
    977
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    it was never easy to sell Pt when it was $2000, it is not going to be easy buying them at $400 either
    when gold was that high, i could not afford that gold buffalo, so i bought a gilded metal buffalo instead... lucky only cost $20...otherwise would have lost over $200 easy.. so it only cost 10% of that potential lost
    never know the future, better is a mystery
     
    sgbuyer likes this.
  16. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    847
    Likes Received:
    316
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Singapore
    The first gold coin I bought didn’t cost me a lot more than $200. That was like 20 years ago. Gold is really cheap in those days but few people buy gold then - it wasn’t even considered an investment at that time, more like a novelty with the GST. The UOB teller gave me a funny look when I bought the coin. When price is cheap, demand is low. This is what is happening to silver and pt.
     
  17. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2011
    Messages:
    6,867
    Likes Received:
    977
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Pulau Alor ;)
    it was becos gold had been is a 20 years bear market since 1980 $850 usd when treasury interest top at 20%
    then gold bottom around 2001 $260 usd

    hope this good thing can last a bit longer for silver and (Pt in a couple of more years)
     
  18. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    847
    Likes Received:
    316
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Singapore
    I hope too as qb series still not completed. But I don’t think that silver and pt can remain low if gold goes parabolic. People will start to notice silver, and the silver market is only couple billions dolllars worth of inventory unlike the trillion dollar gold market.
     
  19. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2012
    Messages:
    2,322
    Likes Received:
    49
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Treasure Island
    Didn't get any. The price has dipped significantly after your post :)

    But it seems like a 3rd-4th option to consider when investing long term.
     
    sgbuyer likes this.
  20. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

    Joined:
    May 25, 2018
    Messages:
    847
    Likes Received:
    316
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Singapore
    I’m buying just buying the qb collection, not going for bullion or stacking like I do for silver or gold. It’s quite a challenge to get good coins regardless of spot.
     

Share This Page