Interesting video HoboJo: I've always thought you made good stock market calls, so I'm not going to dismiss your opinion on this one either. When you look at the comments on that video in youtube, it seems to me that a few ppl have moved beyond the enthusiasm stage into greed and delusion already. That said, six pack jack is still just warming up to the idea I think, and we still haven't seen any media exposure (unless you count the internet, which is a type of "new media" I suppose). But that one article in The Australian was very short and gave the impression that these young brokers thought they were being very sneaky etc. When we see a full four page in-depth analysis on the silver market in the Sunday Mail or the Weekend Australian, then I think we will all be in agreeance that the 3rd and final phase of the bull market is well under way.
Today's bull market in PM is different in scale than other bull market in history. Today not only inflation is a problem, you also Real Estate crisis, Bond market crisis, Sovereign debt crisis AND the BIG one Currency crisis. This never happened in the history of finance. The fall of Gold/silver in 2008 is due in the wake of banking crisis investors running to BONDs which perceived as "SAFE" way to park their money. However Bonds themselves are in a bubble and due to pop. When Common stocks crash investors will run to Bonds, but what happen when Bonds also crash??? where are they going to run? The answer is Commodity, Gold/silver especially. How about Cash? Can't investors run to cash? Well, you got Sovereign debt crisis which potentially will cause the death of all fiat currency. Where do people will run then? There is no other way they can go. PM is the last stand. Surely, EVENTUALLY Gold/silver WILL go into bubble territory, BUT this only happen when the world fixes their finances in order, meaning Controlling inflation, paying off their debt (or defaulting), restore confidence in currency and bonds market, etc... The way I see it, this is still faaaar away into the future, we barely even BEGIN the crisis yet!
Good reading here, one thing I want to ask is how hard people here are backing PM's? Do you borrow to buy, spend spare cash or allocate a percentage of your wealth and if so what percentage? I think this will speak volumes about the confidence in this asset class coming from informed investors.
I'm using interest payments every month + left over cash for my purchases. Although I think I've done enough research to spend 10% of my savings to purchase gold over the next couple of months. I am going to stop stacking silver for the moment (not that I have a whole lot) or use left over currency from gold purchases to top up with silver. While currency in the bank isn't the best place for it to be, I am not >80% confident that I can find a better place in the current climate. This is a strategy I'm comfortable with, like everything you have to find one for yourself.
Not all at once! of course. One by one, the public will try to jump from one currency to the next as each one taking turn falling off the cliff. Eventually the public will be exhausted and lose interest in Fiat all together and jump on PM. Every countries in the world printing a large amount of currency, everybody is devalueing their currencies. Even those fiats which survive the onslaught will be severely devalued nobody wants to buy hold them. Who said you shouldn't be spending your dollars on food and water supplies? Even arable land if you want to start planting your own food. In fact that might be a good idea, if you have enough cash to buy land without mortgage! If you have $100,000 you can buy a shit load of food and water, storing them would be a problem. It is more practical to have supply of food and water for a year or two and have the rest in Gold/Silver.
FWIW my decision was to put a maximum of 10% net worth into PMs. I purchased 3% net worth initially and only buy more if prices drop 25% and 50% from my entry point.
The Bubble graph is great, have a look at price of PLATINUM from 1992-2010, resembles the BUBBLE graph very well 2nd photo from kitco.com 1st foto from ss
All Ordinaries: from smh.com.au Aus Silver: Aus Gold: Ready to sell? You can adjust the position of these chart and the ratio of width to height to change what phase we are in. You wont know exactly where we are until it is all over. If you look at the "steps" gold makes they look like miniture "new paradigms !!!" each "step" but it fails to crash. Is Dr. Rodrigue's graph in proportion or is it just a rough guide? Looks to me like his chart shows one possible outcome but there are other outcomes possible also. Maybe the charts I have overlayed also need a mean line added but that sounds too hard. Another possibility is that Media Attention should be replaced with Internet Attention or YouTube Attention rather than traditional media. My price overlays from 24hgold.com
Encouraged by fiatphoney's compliment I pondered a way to check if we are in the Internet Media phase. Using price in my search avoided counting silver and gold Olympic medal wins. "silver price": "gold price": Looks to me like we are past the Internet "Media attention" phase. Ignore the jump between 2007/2008 in News Reference charts, Google seems to have less news stories in general for pre-2008. from: www.google.com/trends
A great way to start of your posting career at silverstackers. Gotta love original never before seen research. Now if one could program the google search to count IP addresses only once, than the area under the curves could be 'integrated' to yield total number of 'single searches' which could than be extrapolated to find, what percentage of population searched at least once online to find out about the price of gold and such metrics.
reflection, excellent analysis there. an added bit of information is the locations the searches were coming from. shown in the chart below. I've overlaid "gold price" over "silver price" with this chart comparison
Lol. Don't worry about thanking me for the inspiration for the search terms But yes thanks for posting up the charts lakesentrance. I thought the "silver price" might not reveal buying activity, so it wasnt a massive insight, but does show a significant trend.
Yes, u can see the spikes clearly in late 2008, and again in late 2009. It's a pity you can't define a time line in the google Trends app. Only set months etc. I'd forgotten they existed until i saw what reflections had posted. I thought, gee, that's nifty, of course. One could really go through all the relevant keywords for the subject, and gain a pretty good insight into the information being sought of those using the internet, in regards to this subject. Or any subject for that matter. mmmmm. that's right, that's what cookies are for. Or are they worms? I played around with technical analysis a few years back. did the diploma, had the software. but didn't put money into it. in fact the more i thought about the businesses, corporations, funds, banks etc, the more i was revolted by the whole affair. And the thought of putting money into them, or giving them my money, soon became out of the question. Thus my new learned skills, of which i enjoyed, couldn't be used. So, it faded away and I moved on. Now i've come to PM's. Now that's a different kettle of fish. I can now re-ignite my passion for playing with charts, candles, averages and elliott wave principles, but for a different purpose. First purpose is to wake up from the slumber of sleep. Been sleeping all my life, probably for many lifes, along with everyone else. And it's bloody fun to be waking up. Nothing is as bad as I was told. And no-ones pulling the strings, but me. Second reason is to complement our increasing awareness of what fiats all about, and what wealth is all about. And i'm sure there's so much more i don't know yet. So now i can plot my PM charts, for a useful purpose.
The silver charts imply to me that silver is in a bubble. I believe that the "Crash JP Morgan, Buy Silver" campaign was successful and equates to the "Media attention" and the "Enthusiasm" phase. And my chart implies we have entered the "Greed" phase. Crashing JP Morgan could be as much as about greed as revenge. Traditional media is no longer informing the informed people. In the distant past people had "1 to few" communications (think of a tribe leader talking to a tribe). Later we had "1 to many" communications (radio, TV, printing press). Now we have "many to many" communications (Internet: Twitter, FaceBook, Digg, forums etc, mobile phones). Within the last decade or so we have left behind the traditional "1 to many" media as a source of information. We can see this when a online news article has 50 comments calling the author stupid. So the "Media attention" phase of the bubble chart should be changed to "Internet attention". To demonstrate this point: blue: "crash jp morgan buy silver", red:"buy silver"
+1, Agree with this heavily. There's no where to park your fiat dollars. Everything is so risky out there. In addition the clear picture about how money is created is starting to wake people out. The result is increase sound money and commodities, not because of greed but wealth preservation. - To those providing technical analysis and trade volume graphs. I am grateful you are pointing out an opinion. But I am on a firm belief that the fundamentals of the whole game has changed. I can't see how we are in phase 3 relative to fiat currency, if everything was the same back in 1980, then yes we are in a bubble. But this time around, people are more educated then 1980. The banks have created the biggest monetary mess in history. It will not go back to normal easily and pop this phase 3 bubble we are in (if you believe we are even in phase 3). In addition, if there is a glut of supply flooding the market the prices will reverse. This is clearly not the case because of lead times to delivery at many places. The manipulators are still fighting the game on the spot price, they manipulated the price downwards to create the illusion that the dollar is of worth. This same illusion is so deeply in-stilled in peoples minds that they still think gold is expensive (because of the amount of paper dollars to buy it). We don't know the clear picture of what the fair price should be until there is a failure of delivery by the Comex or LBMA. The news is out that china is supplying silver to Comex in return for gold. At the same time the chinese citizens are buying up silver contracts on the Comex, talk about getting dumping US currency in return for silver. The volumes can be attributed to that, how can that be equated to bubble (when it clearly is an asset swap). The technicals are based on over the last 10 years (if not 20). Again these are based on fuzzy numbers that have been sold and traded with intend to suppress the price. We don't know what a fair price will be until the market sorts itself out. We just need to wait for the Comex/LBMA to default and also SLV and GLD holders causing uproar when they can't get their metals. In addition when the depositors of metals are not able to get their rightful metals that they have stored at banks, once the news breaks out. Take the price now at $30 (roughly), say it goes up to $200 by 2012. You believe it would keep going up, then the market tanks back to $40 (for a fair price). Either way you would still be ahead over 2 years. But if you took some profits along the way you would be ahead by alot. I still think the current price is an massively undervalued price. Short term it may look like a bubble, maybe deflation will shake out asset prices in all classes. But once hyperinflation kicks in, then we are starting possibly phase 3. I still think we are 75% through phase 2, but phase 2 is accelerated and will be slightly shorter because of ease of access to information these days (internet). My final point, there is too much money out there. Just way too much, you just have to look around and think about the differences since 1980 and now. Look at how many industries are created, for every industry created. Money is created to expand the economy for that industry. Think in terms of computers, electronics, gaming industry, casino industry, beauty products, massage places, manicure places, skin products, tourism industry, computer software industry, new materials industry(constant discovery of new materials), Internet, communications and heeps more to list. You just have to start thinking about which ones are necessities in life, which ones you can do without. Because the ones you can do without are ones that will fail and start to contract. As a result of this expansion, wealth and money has been accumulated (making people billionaires). When the shit websites like facebook can sell for 300million and others selling for ridiculous amounts of money, then you can see something is really wrong. Theres just too much money out there, just way too much. The CEO of facebook is worth 350million, this is laughable. Start to think about the chinese that own factories and sell to the world, theres heeps more millionaires and billionaires in china. They havn't even started to buy, the big hedge funds havn't even started to buy. I have only moved my super into metals. My brother is starting the process soon, he will be buying 2x15kg monster boxes with it. So the point is theres too much money, no where to park the money. PM's look to be the best bet so far, and nothing is deterring that except the equities market. Which is being propped up to keep the sheep in. This can only go on for so long until hyperinflation kicks in on commodities. Based on all the points and real life assessments, I am pretty certain we are only 75% through phase 2 (relative to fiat, if fiat even survives). Appreciate the TA, happy to discuss any points. Slam
