http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...silver-tightrope/story-e6frg9ex-1225974436569 There you have it.
No mention of the Perth Mint. No mention of taking and holding physical. It was all stock investments. But this is still an article you wouldn't have seen here 12 months ago either. Interesting times...
Australia should get a nice slingshot in price when our dollar deflates in a few years. We could see 25% gains by simply watching our dollar head back to the 'fair value' of around 75c to the USD (or what ever is the equivalent to USDs on a new global currency order). http://www.scribd.com/doc/30393111/The-Case-Against-the-AUD
Phase 3 is a speculative phase. When everybody and their dogs buying PM. Pretty much what you see in Real Estate market today.
However, Gold and Silver is a much smaller market than property, so I would say there is more upside, especially if you go on past history. What I would really like to know is when will we know to sell silver. I sort of have a general idea, when lots of people are buying I'm going to be thinking about selling. What kind of technical indicators, if any, are people going to be looking for? eg. GSR ratio around 15 or so?
By law US currency can't have the image of a living person on it... so my bets on Micheal Jackson! :|
general population are not buying pm, everyones buying junk in the stores though on credit. I personally think we are 2-3 years away from mass buying from the public. Not one person i know personally through work or social is buying pm any my circle is wide. I have mentioned pm too many but all i get is alot of umms and arrs and complex looks.
If we see it in the AFR or in the stock tip section of AFR Smart Investor, it's a sign of being close to a top. Probably will have a few weeks to months before the correction. Those guys almost invariably post stocks with a J curve.
PM's will be in phase 3 when there there are over 10,000 members on SS. And there are MUCH more PM forums online. also thanks to Hobo-Jo's 2 website links. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05 10106.html http://goldsilver.com/article/Three-Pha nt-Harmes/ Good reading on what a 3 phase cycle is.
Some people I know bought into the dot com hype and lost money. Agreed, we wont need people lining with the inter webs and that now people will just purchase online. Buying PM are more accessible than investing in Uranium or Oil. Phase 3 for me will be when the average Joe jumps on board and starts looking to buy 10oz bars for 500, the more cashed up will be getting kg bars for 1700-1750, by this stage buying an oz of gold will be out of reach for people who were buying at 1400 level and fractionals between 1/25 - 1/10 will become very popular. The above may not even play out we just have to enjoy the ride.
Nice to read a financial report on silver without all the usual emotion found around this neck of the woods !
No, I mean we are still in Phase 2. Phase 2 is when the general public starting to enter gold market. Phase 2 is the LONGEST phase in a bullmarket. When Phase 3 starts, it will be undeniable and so obvious! You are going to see a long line of people all the way out around the block waiting to buy gold at gold dealers. People will be queuing up 3-4 hours BEFORE the stores open! You're not seeing that right now. And oh by the way, Phase 3 in Gold bull market will be accompanied with Bread lines!
Seems to me that if funds and private people had 10% in gold as seems is now advised, that is a hell of alot compared to the amount of gold available. 10% of shares or 10% in property is how many tens or hundeds of billions? Don't need a mania. Or if one in ten Chinese bought 1/10 oz.
Good points but do you only see gold going into Phase 3 if there is economic shtf? Can gold go into Phase 3 purely on the back of speculation without dramatic economic turmoil?
We've all seen the phase I, II and III graph. It's interesting that we are all sold on the idea. Who here has determinedly questioned the underlying assumptions? Not me until now. Who says these phases actually exist? Is this an accurate model for flock behaviour or are we the sheep? It would probably take any one of us a slice of our time to explore whether this whole premise is one for the mythbusters. I suspect that the dynamics of the market are much more complex than this compartmentalisation. Phase II is about retail investors, right? Nary a word mentioned about them. Let's start with the opening gambit from this article in the mainstream pap rag The Australian (how dare they call it that, but anyway) This sounds conspiratorial right off the bat. The article starts with a rumoured hush-hush, rather than actual rational discourse. No names or places are mentioned. This journo sapling is as green as, my guess. And the best info he/she could get is by eavesdropping on a conversation at a function. Who were these young bucks, what was this gathering in aide of and WTF was this journo doing there? Winded and dined by whom? No disclosure statement was offered. But he/she mentioned BNP Paribas several times. Where there's smoke...? The spelling terrorist in me is compelled to quote him/her. Not only is this sacrilegious effrontery against the Queen's English, but this journo tops the blunder to say silver's price would be hit harder in a shift towards the precious metals. There is absolutely no justification given for this assertion. So essentially, it is a piece of crap. He may as well have said carrots are blue and left it at that. This is the standard which passes for journalism nowadays - no wonder Arts degrees are regarded as toilet paper! And then, get a load of Seriously, has this person any idea that Australia is not the world and that silver investment opportunities are FAR greater outside our shores, not to mention the blatant omission of Cobar or of the fact that most silver is produced as byproduct? Actually, it is quite nice that CCU was left out, as then it can be "discovered" later by this person and they have a followup story after they finish off the canapes and booze next time. BNP Paribas - Anyone up for a bit of research/muck raking?
I'm wasn't saying economic SHTF is the primary cause of Phase 3 is gold bullmarket per se. Bullmarket phases are price triggered. Meaning Gold and silver has psychological price barrier where Gold skeptics are sitting on the sideline waiting for gold and silver to show a further significant appreciation before they jump in. Right now, alot of gold skeptics are thinking "hmm... gold is $1400, that's pretty high... it CAN'T go any much higher can it???" But when Gold break out to $2,000 those skeptics will be FORCED to believe in the power of gold. Just like when Gold hit $1000, that is the psychological price barrier which trigger the start of Phase 2 in gold bull market. However on the other hand, since gold price is a barometer of the health and well-being of an economy. When gold hit $2,000 you can be assured economic situation is WORSE than today when gold is only $1,400. I think when US economy collapse in 2011, that crash will send gold to $2,000 therefore triggering massive buying panic (Phase 3) by gold skeptics. Economic collapse and Gold speculation phase is kinda go hand in hand and influence one another.
If you're looking for a headline on newspaper saying "PHASE 3 IN GOLD STARTS NOW!" you won't find it! Nobody in Wallstreet pressing "PHASE 3 BUTTON" on the trading table. That's not what Phases in bullmarket means. The so called "Phase" in bull market is a measure of bullishness of investors and general public to a particular asset. It is a measure...! That's why the "start of a phase" can be argued. Some analyst say $1,000 is the start of Phase 2 some say $1,500, etc...
