Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Jul 23, 2011.
Agreed - why increase it during the release year
because, too many australians asking for pandas?
Not if you're moving to a gold standard/Yuan as reserve currency
quote of the day. that is how I stack.
http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-168459.html#p168459 - [GROUP BUY/*TRADES*] PANDA 2011 GOLD VALUE PACK FRACTIONALS [OPEN]
1 oz. BU 500,000
1/2 oz. BU 200,000
1/4 oz. BU 200,000
1/10 oz. BU 600,000
1/20 oz. BU 600,000
Currently cheaper than Roos
Bullion coins that will develop a numi premium [Gold though]
The disadvantage of Pandas:
1) Extremely unstackerable. In fact due to the curve capsule, I would say they are the worst. Try holding 10 pandas in one hand and walking to the car.
2) In a bubble and over hyped. Does anyone honestly think that a 1oz silver pandas is worth $90+? Also, why would someone buy a silver panda at $90? Well, because he/she think it can sell later at $100. Remember the tulips. This is speculation. This is different to silver fundamentals. Silver is a raw material that is consumed. It is also know to be used a currency throughtout histrory.
3) Counterfeits. Pandas have been known to have counterfeits. There may come a time when it is just plan to risky to buy a panda due to the number of counterfeits. Guess what will happen to the price of pandas when this happens.
4) Extreme mintage. The mintage of pandas have been increased for the second time. The rarity of this coins has just taken another hit. Also, I think it is likely they will continue to raise the mintages.
Worst capsule design ever. Completely agree with you lol, which idiot decided it would be smart to do that! The sheet of 30 as well, huge massive hard to store/post sheet!
Lunar dragons are well over 100... I don't see why pandas can't be. I wouldn't pay $5000 for 1oz panda but I can easily see $90+ happening especially for something with such a low mintage and high demand.
Legitimate concern but that's what happens when something is in high demand, counterfeits and knockoffs follow. If global demand for perth mint lunar suddenly exploded I'm sure that's where the counterfeiters would head to. Thankfully Ag/Au fakes are easily tested by simple tests such as visual or weight/measurement tests. At least you know panda fakes are out there so you'll be careful, not so much other brands.
Shouldn't affect the previous years all that much since their mintages are fixed already. I guess 2011 prices may be affected but that's anybody's guess.
1) New capsules can be purchased if this is a real concern - although I agree the round capsules are a pain the backside
2) Purchase of any bullion coin is speculation - I don't know where $90 comes from though - 2011 pandas are slightly more than maples (6.5% on bullion deals last group buy).
3) Anything can be copied but there will always be people who can identify real vs copy and at the moment buying from reputable dealers eliminates this concern (there are also well know coin grading services - NGC etc)
4) Increased mintage will have an effect but you must consider supply and demand both. Lunar Dragon is the highest mintage of all lunar coins (supply) but commands the highest premium (demand).
If the capsule shape turns you off the best bullion coin in the last ten years, just remove/replace the capsule.
This is so silly and has been discussed so many times...
a) Demand for Pandas is far from being at the peak. Pandas are the primary bullion coin available to the Chinese public, and the bull run on silver isn't even half way yet. When the silver craze hits the public, Pandas are going to be the first bullion coin to go through the roof... when that happens, then you can talk about a potential bubble.
b) The supply of Pandas per person is far more limited than any other bullion coin.
c) Yes, I do believe that some 1oz silver pandas are worth over $90; the same way that there are thousands of numismatic coins that are worth much more than their metal content alone (E.g. Liberty Dollars/Morgans/Australian 1930 Penny).
d) If someone really believed that silver coinage was really only just raw material, then it wouldn't be their interests to get any coins, and they should only stick to bullion bars and generic rounds.
It is a well educated move, especially since the demand for Pandas is going to go through the roof when the bull run on silver starts. The smart money gets in early. Don't forget, the 2009 Pandas were priced at the same level as Maples only 2 years ago... both have gone up, but one is worth more than double the other.
Similarly, a smart person would have seen the price of the 2000 1oz Panda (worth over $600) going up and gotten in extra early. Is it too late? I don't think so. Price of the rarer Pandas are going to go much higher.
Yes there are fake Pandas, but there are also fake $100USD notes. Has fake notes diminished the market of $100USD bills? If you think it has, sell me your $100USD bills at a fraction of their raw material worth (less than a cent). Pandas are the national bullion of China, the Chinese government are at more risk of US Bonds than they are at risk of counterfeit Pandas killing their coinage.
a) I like the increased mintage of 2011s. It has been a great move in a expanding the availability of Pandas worldwide. If it were not for the increased mintage of Pandas, very few would have reached Australia.
b) The figures have shown in the past year, the increased mintage of 2011s have helped to boost the demand for older rarer coins.
c) As more people own 2011 Pandas, this will inevitably lead to more serious investors not only in China, but worldwide.
realistically, can't remove panda from original capsule, its just going to increase doubt on authenticity. Maybe the round capsule is a way to differentiate and deter counterfeit, I don't know. Hate the capsule with a vengeance, but its the only way to collect pandas.
Earlier year pandas are considered numistmatics now. So, their price bracket doesn't really compare to bullion silver.
Counterfeit comes with popularity, can't escape that, like light and shadow.
Mintage, well if silver goes mainstream, then even a 10 million mintage is too low, which china is doing. However that will increase the price of our perth mint bullions. If worldwide demand tanks, all our silver also tanks anyway. I guess in the long run, pandas are trying to be what ASEs are to americans but with a different design every year (our koalas). If buying recent year at low premium, why not.
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