Panda Prices compared against other 1oz bullion coins

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by yennus, Jul 23, 2011.

  1. Elemental

    Elemental Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Quite true. My mistake there - it appeared to be the same at a quick glance of the images and description. Regardless of that my point still stands in that I don't find it particularly helpful making comparisons between differing types of bullion. They all have their good and bad points. The criteria that affect my purchase decisions are as follows:

    Cost
    Mintage
    Demand (current)
    Future demand (numismatic potential)
    Liquidity
    Quality

    Some of these are related or overlap and some are subjective. I would be interested to hear what criteria you use hobo-jo?

    Also - I think it is worth mentioning I am neither for or against any type of coin/bullion. My personal belief based on the criteria I have listed above is that at the moment Panda's and Lunars both look good. Lunars probably coming out on top due to their lower and fixed mintage for the rest of the series.

    In terms of a straight comparison between maples, ase and panda I believe Pandas come out on top.
     
  2. THUCYDIDES79

    THUCYDIDES79 New Member Silver Stacker

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    and I'll take them all of your hands for an additional $2.25 above what you quoted per coin !!!

    Do it !!

    :)


    Guys,

    It is true but nevertheless strange, when a coin is worth 50% or more over spot and in the case for some of those 'regular' Pandas they even went for more than
    300% over spot !!!

    Just compare the 1937 and the 1938 Crown, both 0.925 ( sterling 'yuck' and only 0.8409 oz ) but one costs $40 ( Note roughly same as a Maple, Buffalo - which are both heavier and purer - and in the case of the Maple an order of magnitude purer :) ) and the other one costs $120 - and they have maintained this rough 1:3 ratio over time.

    Those of you who want to do the Panda dance is totally ok, but in the decision-making process of an investor paying for a modern minted coin more than 300 % to spot the component of a Panda going TODAPLATO ( the planet Plato, and also much further than going
    TODAMOON where Silver is headed ) is one of the major factors.

    I am still of the opinion that the BEST gov minted 1 oz coin for stackers is the 'lowly' Maple!

    Why?!

    Lowest cost per coin per oz per purity level to any other coin.

    Milkspots?! - so what! Get yourself some pretty coins , but for stacking, do it with something that tracks SPOT !!

    So you buy it close to spot and you sell it for close to spot, if Silver explodes, your Maples are gonna explode too, if Silver crashes to $12 than your Maple will also track the SPOT - and your cushion will be somewhere higher than SPOT, BUT YOU WONT BE ABLE TO BLAME THE MAPLES FOR THAT - YOU WILL BE BLAMING SILVER.
    But if you pay for a coin 200% premium, and x months down the track silver spot is lets say $80 /oz - than WOULD YOU BE ABLE TO SELL THAT COIN FOR AT LEAST 200% over spot again - so for $160 - if the answer is yes, than the holder of that particular coin did the same as someone who bought a Maple for
    10% over spot and than resold it for at least 10% over spot.

    Look at it this way

    time 0

    SPOT $37

    Maple $40 - premium 8%
    Panda $80 - premium 116%


    time x months in future

    SPOT $112

    Maple around $120
    Panda ???? - if that Panda costs IN THE CASH MARKET ( on eBay, SS, or anywhere else ) less than 116% on top of SPOT - than it would have been an investment
    which produced a lesser gain than the Maple would have. So if spot is $112 than the Panda you have paid $80 at the time spot was $37 and 'generics' were around $40 and you can sell your Panda for only around 90% over spot so at $215 - than RELATIVE to silver the performance was suboptimal.


    Everyone should continue buying what they think is best for them - and yeah, there are right and wrong choices, but NOW we dont necessarily know 100% for sure, but if one is purchasing stuff that costs way over spot, than you are distancing yourself from what SPOT is gonna do and you are not close to 0.95+ correlations to the movements in silver.
    and could also be exposing yourself to bubbleprone assets.
     
  3. THUCYDIDES79

    THUCYDIDES79 New Member Silver Stacker

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    I understand - but the Maple carries the 9999 stamped on the coins - if the purity levels are questioned than far beyond me and another discussion topic.
    the milkspots are strange tho - and if they are caused due to higher purity levels and not other factors than the 99999 R/S coins like the Andean and the Macaw would be totally white -

    i dont think it is something to do with purity levels, but could be 'local' a few mm2 on the coin - and from memory i dont think that any other coins have that problem.
     
  4. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hehehe... I don't think anyone would be allowed to post Panda Collector's information without infringing on his hardwork. I think it's only right if Panda Collector makes his guide available to us.

    I do genuinely recommend his pricepedia, I know I have benefited greatly from it.

    Here are some testimonies from people that have profited from Pandas in recent times. Sure it's regarding slabbed Pandas, but for the moment Brilliant Uncirculated pandas are the best we can get:

    http://www.livebusinesschat.com/smf/index.php?topic=2485.0

    [​IMG]

    E.g. robble "I got this coin after reading the Dec 15 recommendations. I paid $150 for this coin and have seen it sell recently at $185 and another is listed at $225. LBC makes me rich. :D"
     
  5. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    With all due respect to THUCYDIDES79, there are just so many things I politely disagree with, but to save on time and energy, I'll deal with the crux of his writings.

    Basically what he's saying is:
    1. When silver shoots up, you will get your greatest bang for buck if you get a Maple since it has low premiums, and you can get the maximal amount of silver ounces.
    2. He also casts doubt on whether you will be able to get the same or higher returns on the premium paid for a Panda.
    3. Pandas are in a bubble that is about to pop.

    I've dealt with this line of thinking before, because I once believed it too (well at least points 1 and 2. Point 3 is just wrong). But here are some figures:

    If I had purchased $10,000AUD worth of silver Maples in 2009, about 500oz of silver, today I would have doubled my money (spot $16/oz to $32/oz). [Maples then about $20, now $40] (100% Gain) [Fiat now worth $20,000AUD]

    If I had purchased $10,000AUD worth of silver Pandas in 2009, about 454oz of silver, today I would have more than quadrupled my money!!! [Panda then about $22, now $95] [Fiat now worth $43,181.82AUD]

    If you buy Maples, you are merely preserving your "real" net worth (which is much better than holding cash). A Maple in 2009 is worth a Maple in 2011. No loss nor gain. You only win against fiat.
    If you buy Pandas, you are gaining interest on your silver. A Panda in 2009 is worth at least 2 Pandas in 2011. You have gained. You win against fiat and you win against other bullion.

    This has been explored in this discussion topic: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11885-news-two-ms-69-ases-go-for-100-panda-comparison.html - [News] Two MS-69 ASEs go for $100 - Panda Comparison

    Will deal with Pandas in a bubble next.
     
  6. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm sure many people have heard this line:

    "Pandas are in a bubble that is about to pop."

    Pandas are not in a bubble because not everyone who wants one has one, nor can they EVER. I believe that the bubble around ASEs and Maples will pop way before the bubble around Pandas do.

    1. Fact: Simple Demand and Supply:

    There is simply too much demand and not enough supply of Pandas for the bubble to burst at this stage.

    Bubbles often burst when there is an oversupply of the item, and/or a lack of demand (i.e. when an asset is overvalued).

    There are at least 1.3 billion Chinese people that can only buy from a stockpile of only 10,658,000 1oz Silver Pandas, which is only 1 coin per 122people.
    There are at least 312 million American people that can choose from not only 241,991,982 1oz ASEs, and at least 39,240,718 1oz Maples, which is almost one for every person.

    2. Fact: The market for pandas is larger than the market for ASEs/Maples. You can buy a Panda from almost any bank anywhere in China. But you can't buy ASEs/Maples easily in China.

    You can also buy pandas easily in the USA, Europe, Asia, etc.

    Thus the market potential for Pandas is simply on their side.

    I'm sure you all heard this quote "Imagine selling something to each Chinese person for $1"... well the reverse is currently more true "Imagine the Chinese selling something to each person in the world for $1."

    Pandas are sold and traded in China and internationally.
    Whereas ASE and Maples are not sold or traded in China.

    3. Opinion: The numismatic sector in China is just getting started in China. Badon from LiveBusinessChat writes:
    "I estimate that the entire Chinese coin market is only valued at around $100 million right now. China is a much larger country than the USA, and it will soon have much more money than the USA too, but I'll be conservative. Let's guess that China's coin market will almost match America's within the next 10 to 30 years, and become valued at $10 billion. For that to happen, coin values would have to increase an average of 100 times, or 10,000%."

    "...Maybe the Chinese coin market won't match the American coin market. Instead, it might go half as high, or twice as high, or 10 times as high. What we DO know for sure is that Chinese coins are going WAY, WAY higher. WAY HIGHER! Like, really, really, really A LOT, LOT, LOT higher! I can't emphasize it enough.

    We're nowhere near a bubble. In fact, this market is just barely getting started."
     
  7. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Fortunately these Pandas are made of real money :) gold (and silver).
     
  8. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Indeed, if the Chinese authorities started using 'Redback Spiders' and 'Tasmanian Tigers' coins as their national bullion coin, I imagine their prices would go through the roof, especially if there were a limited amount of them.

    As Jim Rogers says; Do your homework.

    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_jimrogersbuyspandas.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/675_jimrogers.jpg][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  9. Sargeant Argent

    Sargeant Argent New Member

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    Jim Rogers may say go for Pandas but just about if not all experts that I have read have said to stay away from high premium coins. I actually just bought a panda and a lunar but they're not something I'll stack, they're too expensive.

    The cheapest I can buy them is 46 per coin plus shipping. I can buy maples for about 40 and grizzlies for 42 (interestingly enough you have grizzlies more expensive than wolves and par with pandas which is crap) no way I can get a wolf for less than a grizzly and I'm in Canada, wolves actually list higher than pandas (50 - 65 bucks!) in these parts but they're also 6 x more rare with only 1 million minted.

    I'm stacking for long term and SHTF scenario. If the world goes to hell and a hand basket you're not gonna get premium for your pandas a 1 oz silver will be a 1 oz silver at the point of near apocalypse I don't think people will care. (if you're dehydrated and dying of thirst are you gonna turn your nose up at a bottle of "generic" bottled water? Are you gonna demand evian for your pandas? Investing in silver is risky, investing in fads is even more so, why double dip? If I'm gonna stack any panda it'd be 1 oz. Gold as the premiums are reasonable but I don't think I'd do that stacking the same coin is boring. I like variety in my stack which is why I bought a panda and a lunar. I get more joy looking at my old junk silver coins, and old gold coins than I do my maples, ASE's bars or whatever.
    Not only that as attractive as the pandas are the opposite temple side isn't that attractive in my opinion. Coupled with the fact that silver and gold ownership has just become increasingly popular recently pandas are looking like may's chart to me, about to pop.
    But its cool everyone should do what makes them happy without hurting anyone else if you like pandas go for it, I'd prefer 15 percent more oz.s for my money.
     
  10. THUCYDIDES79

    THUCYDIDES79 New Member Silver Stacker

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    yennus and other Panda connoisseurs

    Guys,

    Maybe all that you have mentioned above is correct and will come to pass.
    Im a silver bull and im kinda bent that way, and id rather cry with silver investors than with
    panda investors.
     
  11. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Mate, that's what you just don't get. Even if silver tanks and hits $10/oz, the price of Pandas are unlikely to drop that low due to the low mintage. [As seen throughout the dips this year]
    If silver goes up, then so do the prices of Pandas, often disproportionately higher than spot. [As we have seen already]

    Hence, even in May this year, when silver tanked, the prices of pandas were still riding higher than the price of maples.

    Don't confuse the Panda's competitive advantage with this unsupported idea of a bubble, when the supply/demand factors favor the pandas.

    It is self evident, Pandas have all the advantages that other bullion coins do plus more, and with less of the the downside risk that Maples do.

    Here's a chart for you to look at:
    [​IMG]


    And some additional reading material:
    July Panda Pricepedia - http://www.pandacollector.com/pricepedia.html
     
  12. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    That's why history is important. Don't be at the epicenter of where the s*it happens. If you're living near the USA, I feel for ya, get your guns and food stockpiles. But even better, do what Jim Rogers did, get a wider worldview, see the world a bit, understand that this isn't the first time the world has been in trouble. The world will unravel, but will be put back together again one way or another.

    It is unlikely the entire world everywhere will be in chaos all at the same time. With everything the way it is today, I'm reasoning that SE Asia and Oceania are going to be the better parts of the world to live in. Hence so does Jim Rogers (Singapore) and Marc Faber (Thailand).

    By the time there is chaos everywhere, hopefully we have managed our Pandas well, and I'm on a yacht somewhere in the Pacific with my fellow Panda buddies, drinking coconuts in Samoa and lazing around in the sunshine fishing for fresh tuna.

    Seriously, like I pointed out with the silver eagles here, http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11885-news-two-ms-69-ases-go-for-100-panda-comparison.html, don't tell me that you would still rather have bought an ASE back in 1994 instead of a 1994 Panda.

    You would have had a lot more guns, ammo and bottles of evian today if you went for the Pandas :)

    So unless you're thinking the sh*t is coming tomorrow, then pandas are evidently still the best investment coin out there.
     
  13. Elemental

    Elemental Active Member Silver Stacker

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    100% agree. Gotta compare like with like. Pre 2009 pandas are already numismatic but there is very little difference % wise between current pandas and maples. This is where I see a lot of potential in a panda and would take it every time over a maple. $65 extra per $1000 is the difference between them and I'll pay that even if there's a small chance of the coin becoming collectable in two or three years.
     
  14. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Absolutely agree.

    Pandas pounce on ASEs:

    As seen here: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11885-news-two-ms-69-ases-go-for-100-panda-comparison.html
    2x1oz ASE slabbed, one is for 2008 (MS69, ICG) and the other one is 1994 (MS69,NGC). These are two ASEs identical in quality MS69. That Sold together for the price of $100, or $50 a coin!!!!

    [If these were] Pandas [they] would have conservatively fetched between $300-$400, almost 3-4 times a better return than these high quality ASEs.

    Consider which person you would want to be:
    a) you bought the 2 ASEs, one in 1994 and one in 2008, and when you go to sell them, you only get slightly above spot. You've been holding the 1994 coin for 17 years and it sells at the same price of the coin you bought 3 years ago!!!

    b) you bought 2 Pandas, one in 1993 and one in 2008, and when you go to sell them, you gain so much, you could purchase 6-8x 1oz ASE's MS-69 from 1994!

    I know who I would like to be :)

    Pandas pounce on Maples:

    As seen here: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-11907-news-canadian-maple-fail-panda-comparison.html

    2010 Pandas only a few days ago sold for $65, but 2010 Maples only went for $40. There are a lot of people who bought 2010 Pandas for less than $30 only last year (I being one of them). If you had purchased 2010 Pandas last year, you could double your stack with Maples, or even by doing a swap with 2011 Pandas (3x 2011 Pandas for 2x 2010 Pandas: or 2x 2011 Maples for 1x 2010 Pandas).

    I can't find a single case in the past 11years (and possibly more), where if I had a choice of getting Pandas instead of Maples/ASEs, where the Pandas don't win. Especially for the year 2000 Panda (frosted or mirrored).
     
  15. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    100% agree! The upside of Pandas is undisputed and since (at least 2000) can be seen as a fact.

    Pandas have all the advantages that Maples have, plus more.

    The overall mintages of Pandas are so small compared against ASEs and Maples.
    1oz ASEs Minted: at least 241,991,982 1oz ASEs
    1oz Maples Minted: at least 39,240,718 1oz Maples (not including years 2010 and 2011 - which could easily push the final number past 57,000,000 )
    1oz Pandas Minted: LESS than 11,000,000

    In January 2011, the US Mint sold 4.5million 1oz ASE in just one month. In less than 2months, the USA could have eaten every single 2011 Panda made that year. That's how few Pandas are out there... even with the latest jump in 2011 Panda mintages.
     
  16. yennus

    yennus Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    And that's what a lot of pandaphobes fail to see... it's not that ASEs and Maples are bad investments, it's just that Pandas have PROVEN to be much much much better. E.g. a 2000 ASE is still only worth $40... a 2000 Panda is now worth at least 10x ASEs.

    When you buy a 2011 Panda, you are buying a premium bullion coin. But very quickly that bullion coin takes on its numismatic edge that historically has be PROVEN to absolutely smash any equivalent year of Maple/ASE/etc.

    I agree that Perth Mint Lunars are a better investment than ASEs and Maples - but against Pandas? Not so sure, so far the Pandas have still beaten the Perth Mint Lunars; although the Perth Mint Lunars hold up much better than ASEs and Maples.

    It's interesting that people will completely discount the mintage of 6million pandas and trump up Perth Mint Lunars without even considering the population difference between the 2 nations.
    6million 2011 Pandas for 1,300,000,000 people = 1x 2011 Panda per 216 people.
    300,000 2011 Lunars for 23,000,000 people = 1x 2011 Lunars per 77 people.
    i.e. the supply shortage of 2011 Pandas is still significantly greater than the 2011 Lunars, by a factor of 3.

    [Yes, Lunars are sold internationally; so are Pandas. The Panda potential market is at least 1,300,000,000 people larger than Lunar market, if only because Pandas are sold throughout China, whereas Lunars are not - it's an unfair advantage they have, but hey, that's life]
     
  17. Midnight Man

    Midnight Man Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm a newbie at this, so forgive if I make a mistake in my thinking here!

    I would agree completely with Yennus, seeing a few prices around, that 2009 and earlier Pandas would have been a great buy - they have appreciated in value considerably above the base metal price etc.

    @ Yennus - What I think the folks are trying to say here is that, if *today* you are looking to buy a Panda from an earlier year (say 2009 and prior), in some cases, you may have missed the boat in terms of price gains - in other words, those coins have already inflated in value. Not saying they won't continue to climb - but I think many folks are thinking they're already in low geosynchronous orbit, so to speak, and whilst they will gain more, the meteoric rise has already happened. In other words - buyers today may have missed the gravy train.

    Also - folks - let's remember one thing... there are different reasons for folks to be here. Some are stacking for SHTF, some are in it for the looks of the coins, numismatics etc. See an earlier post I made here: http://forums.silverstackers.com/message-166241.html#p166241

    Because we're here for different reasons, not all "logic" is "logic" to everyone... a Panda numismatist doesn't care about how many ounces they can stack away for the cheapest possible cost, but an SHTF stacker will, and likewise THEY will look at the premium on a rare Panda and shake their heads ;-) Doesn't make one right and the other wrong - ultimately, we're all here because we like PM's, be they Pandas or Poured Englehards ;-)

    Just my humble 1oz worth for the day.
     
  18. rbaggio

    rbaggio Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Enjoying this discussion.

    I reckon the market for Pandas is 7 billion people, just like the market for Lunars is 7 billion people. I am sure not every single person in China likes the Panda.

    Reminds me of the Parisian who would have lunch every day inside the restaurant at the top of the Eiffel Tower - he hated it so much, it was the only place in Paris he could look out and not see his hated Tower.

    If you can get bullion coins for bullion prices, and you think they will develop a semi-numi premium, then do it. I feel this way about the 2012 1oz Dragon. Perhaps the 2011 1oz Panda is also in this category for some. I have some gold Pandas bought for bullion prices for this very reason (from yennus and others here).
     
  19. RetardedMonkey

    RetardedMonkey Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Pandas sure are a hot topic.

    I've bought a few 2010/2011 but am definitely not thinking they will rise to the amounts that previous years have. The more they start minting the lower the 'top price' will be in my opinion. Obviously that's only a personal view.
     
  20. THUCYDIDES79

    THUCYDIDES79 New Member Silver Stacker

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    and if the government of China lifts the One Child Policy, than there will be even more of them which would increase the supply of buyers which would be bullish on the Pandas

    :)
     

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