My low end targets - SLR, NCM, EVN, KCM

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by SilverSanchez, May 9, 2012.

  1. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Finicky didnt you see the Skaffold man on "your shares, your money" he hates Telstra's intrinsic value
     
  2. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Roger Montgomery says he's on record as having valued Telstra at under $3 when it was over $6, and he was one of the few if not the only prominent analyst doing so.

    His Skaffold program today values Telstra at 2.56, 2.89 and 3.03 in FYs 12, 13 and 14, and rates it a B3 for quality and performance. Currently 30% overpriced at yesterday's close
     
  3. Nukz

    Nukz New Member

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    One thing i found is when markets are fearful and falling TLS performs but when markets rise and are performing well it tends to drop.
     
  4. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Exactly - wouldn't want to be holding TLS from these prices if the market warms up again and 'risk on' starts up again.
    Unless there's been a fundamental change in the management or opportunities for Telstra - but that's not the reason it has taken off surely? It's safety and franked yield driving it, no? Telstra might reveal itself as a 'yield trap'
     
  5. trew

    trew Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Bet Roger neglected to mention being on record for buying a ton of Credit Corp (CCP) which then imploded and lost over 90% of value during the 2008 GFC crash.
    CCP was the single largest holding of Clime Capital at the time - which he was running.

    Roger is just as much a salesman as any other self promoting analyst.
    Talks up his good calls and forgets the bad calls.
     
  6. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    He talks his product all the time
     
  7. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Leave Roger alone. He has delivered me from the fog of confusion. Like if you had written a bigger and better bible you wouldn't talk about it too. He reads blogs and discussion groups and emailed me and said, "Sanchez and trew are C5 tossers unworthy of investment."

    [​IMG]
     
  8. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    You love him, ive read about this...

    One eyed man in the land of the blind is king ;)
     
  9. trew

    trew Active Member Silver Stacker

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    If you want to see where Roger's ideas come from, read 'The Intelligent Investor' by Benjamin Graham.

    If you want to see where the idea of skaffold was ripped off from, check out: http://www.lincolnindicators.com.au/
     
  10. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Roger gets the message across like no other- he was the one who got through to me.

    As to his intellectual roots, I've heard him acknowledge them often. Elio D'Amato from Lincoln's very good for a listen to on Your Money Your Call , but I am skeptical that Skaffold ripped off Lincoln's concept - I hope not anyway. Stock filters and valuation soft-ware and the ideas of intrinsic analysis, with ROE taking centre place, have been around before either of them I'm guessing.

    Basically Roger has always impressed me as showing a genuine interest in Australian share investors - he gets my vote anyway. His free blog is excellent also.

    http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/
     

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