My low end targets - SLR, NCM, EVN, KCM

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by SilverSanchez, May 9, 2012.

  1. topstock

    topstock New Member

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    How low do you think OZL will fall to Silver Sanchez? I'm hoping it hits 6 dollars to get a huge chunk. And EVN at $1.15 would be awesome. Definitely be shopping then. I give the market another week and a half to tank a little furtherand I probably buy. looking to sell sometime around November.
     
  2. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    OZL - i dont know its harder to make a choice when dividends are involved and its copper


    Remember everyone - I have possitions in these companies, so i can afford to wait and get lower prices.
    If you dont have a possition and you are waiting to pick the low - that is no very smart IMHO

    I always say a little is better than none
    "No shares" is "no possition" but not "no risk" because a fiat possition has risk as seen with the AUD dropping 3% which effects metal spot prices in AUD.

    So I hope nobody is mistaking my numbers as a recomended price, as I said they are my prices given that I have a possition already.
     
  3. topstock

    topstock New Member

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    Hmmm so let's do a valuation of miners

    Evn
    Shares fully diluted: 707 mil
    Share price: $ 1.48
    Debt: 38.4 mil
    Cash in hand: 167 mil
    Enterprise value: 918 mil
    Forecast gold mined for 2012 financial year is 400000oz
    Total cash cost per oz is approximately $1070
    Forecast sales prices of gold is 1600oz
    Conservative profit margin as $500
    Total forecast profit $500*400000oz =200mil
    Roe = 200 mil/918mil=22% hmmmm not bad

    Ore reserve of 3.5oz mil.
    Ev/resources = 918/3.5= $262 per oz valued for evn gold
    I don't think evn is cheap enough currently.

    Target price of$ 1.15 will make these numbers a lot more attractive.
     
  4. topstock

    topstock New Member

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    Ozl
    Shares:314mil
    Share Prices: $8.84
    Debt: none
    Cash in hand:776 mil
    Enterprise value : 2 billion
    Estimated ore mined for 2013: 100,000 tone copper and 130000 oz
    Conservative total cash cost Of $1.40 per pound
    Sales of copper forecast at $3.50 per pound
    Profit margin $2.10
    Forecast profit of $2.10*220 mil pound = 400mil
    130000 oz gold * 1600= 208mil
    Total profit 608 mil
    Roe = 608mil/2billion =30%
     
  5. topstock

    topstock New Member

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    Nmg
    Total shares diluted:730 mil
    Share prices:0.24
    Cash in hand: Estimate of 6mil
    Enterprise value: 170 mil
    Conservative gold mined of for 2013 100000 oz
    Gold at 1600
    Estimated total cash cost of $1100
    $500 profit margin
    500* 100000= 50 mil
    Roe = 50 mil / 170 mil= 29%

    If Asx200 fall below 4000 mark interesting if it will fall to 18c or have support at it's low of 22c
     
  6. topstock

    topstock New Member

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    By the way SilverSanchez, I think in an environment like this it's always better to be patient than rush out to buy. Even though you may miss the low, but at least you can preserve capital. I do expect ASX200 to at least test 4000 and go as low as 3800 before I consider entering a position. I have been waiting for 5 months for this opportunity, so Im happy to wait a little longer :)
     
  7. topstock

    topstock New Member

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    KCN
    Shares fully diluted:157 mil
    Share Prices: $5.63
    Debt: 36million approx
    Cash in hand:26 million approx
    Enterprise value : 851 mil
    Estimated ore mined for 2013: 200,000 oz of gold
    Conservative total cash cost Of $900 per oz
    Sales of copper forecast at $1600 per oz
    Profit margin $700
    Forecast profit of $700*200000 oz = 140mil

    ROE = 140mil/851mil =16%

    Upside from other projects has already been included in KCN prices. There are other miners with better value I believe. IMHO If you're interested in it, a good price entry is in the low 4 dollar range.
     
  8. LovingtheSilver

    LovingtheSilver Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Sorry to get off topic regarding the shares in thread title, but what do u guys think of Azumah?
     
  9. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Was it Azumah that bought Bullabulling Gold after it floated (cant remember if that is the right name)
     
  10. LovingtheSilver

    LovingtheSilver Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Found some info about Auzex, they merged with bullabulling. Not sure if you were thinking of them
     
  11. 2weeke

    2weeke Member

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    Whats your opinion on PRU and WRM SilverSanchez?
     
  12. topstock

    topstock New Member

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    From a glance azumah looks like a cheap explorer with a low Ev/resource of $35. During times like these where funding is difficult you should be weary of how much cash there is in explorers such as Azumah. Do they have enough cash to fund there exploration, bfs and etc without having to do capital raising that will heavily dilute share prices. I'm no expert but a cash position that can fund up to a year and a half of exploration would be good. So say around 10 mil above to be safe. During market downturn non producing goodies should be smashed hardest and heavily oversold, so you can pick up ridiculos bargains if you believe in their long term story and importantly their management.

    IMHO great spec buy, but wait a little since it's a time of extremes. Meaning you're going to get extreme bargains as further fear kicks in.
     
  13. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Also to add to topstock's comments - consider their grades. With competition for funding and higher extraction costs grade will determine whether their rocks can become 'ore' and not only become ore (minable at a profit) but they have sufficient grade of resource to make them stand out in competition for investor's seeking a place to put their money.
     
  14. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Just regarding Azumah

    As far as I can tell from a superficial glance, none of the directors have any direct exposure to the company through shares

    IE - none of the directors have purchased ANY shares in their own company.... some people might consider that a worry.
     
  15. topstock

    topstock New Member

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    PRU -

    curent share price: $2.56
    fully diluted share = 470
    cash in hand = 117 mil
    bank debt of 74mil
    EV = 1160mil

    Targeting gold production of (conservative estimate) 200,000 oz+ for 2013.
    Cash cost forecast of $550(company forecast), but I would use conservative estimates of $700 dollars.
    gold sold at $1400 per ounce*
    EBITDA= 700*200000= 140,000 million

    IMHO = Impressive gold company, with extremely ambitious production forecast. Very good long term stock to buy and put away for 2-3 years. For the short-mid term investors look for a low of $2 and expect a good return of investment in 6 months period.

    Downside risk:
    1. not meeting their gold production target due to production delays.
    2.* has 200,000 ounces of gold in hedge at $1200. Therefore if gold rises to $2000 per ounce, there are no upside profit as they are obligated to sell their gold at hedge prices of $1200.

    Price target: Due to continual weakness in gold prices and sharemarket volatility aim for low $2 and less.

    Disclaimer: Currently I dont own any stocks, Im just doing this to give back to the community. Enjoy :)
     
  16. topstock

    topstock New Member

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    WRM - EXPLORER

    curent share price: $.145
    fully diluted share = 85
    cash in hand = 3.5 mil
    EV = 8mil

    gold equivalent of 700000 ounce (Note most of this is inferred resources)

    EV/Resource = $11 per ounce

    downside risk:
    1.Lack of cash to fund 2 quarters of exploring. Expect another round of share dilution sometime next quarter which will reduce shares prices.
    2. Inferred resources - less credible

    Upside potential: Appears pretty cheap

    Price target: $0.11 because I would expect further selling as things become shakier in this volatile trading environment

    IMHO: HIGH SPECULATIVE PLAY - jump in these with cash you're willing to lose

    Disclaimer: Currently do not own any :)
     
  17. Nukz

    Nukz New Member

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    Once again take a look at TLS is working as a hedge against falling markets.
     
  18. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    TLS took 10 years to bottom and everyone poos it off - i bet it will be $10 in 5 years
     
  19. Goldrush

    Goldrush Member

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    TLS up over 2.5% , massive flow of money into them today. TAH also works as a similar hedge in times of trouble but not up as much as TLS. Eventually when my Equity base is large enough to live of passive income I will switch the majority of it into these high dividend yielding stocks. At the moment I have to be content with a sea of red, but at least I managed to pick up some LYC on it low for the day of .98, showing a fight back at the moment and it usually closer higher in the afternoon due to shorts covering.
     
  20. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Telstra could be clearing a long term level of support become resistance, but then again it is more 'bought' on the monthly indicators than it has ever been (though not at conventionally overbought levels). I actually like the chart as a turnaround prospect, but it could still retrace a lot of the recent gain and remain a prospective turnaround, imo.

    I don't trust what's happening with Telstra - it has been heavily ramped by the establishment everywhere. They're in, want us in, and will presumably be out in a rush when things are looking more promising and underbought elsewhere. One commentator I heard put it interestingly - he thinks there is an ASX bubble developing in divvy paying defensive stocks and is concerned about a correction in these ahead (forgot who)

    I suppose it's possible that analysts are seeing reason for a rerating of Telstra because of the new management, NBN payment, and Telstra's own strategy for taking advantage of the NBN, but I don't have a clue about all that.

    [​IMG]
     

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