Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    21.1%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    38.0%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    23.9%
  4. It's not a bubble

    16.9%
  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ you don’t want to wait a bit? The market is still volatile and uncertain.
     
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  2. Gullintanni

    Gullintanni Well-Known Member

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    I know.
    I have made a few buys of late that many would probably not consider smart but i am looking for a big pay day because i have other things coming online and i will not have as much time to watch things multiple times a day.
    If it is money down the drain then ,meh.
    For instance i bought 500,000 SLOTH the other day and they have literally no buy orders for days and days but just got them on the off chance they find interest agan one day and maybe revisit their high of 0.00000015. BTC
    I got them at 0.00000001 BTC
     
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  3. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    interesting to note that had you purchased silver at its high of $43.44 aud and sold it at its low of $18.33 (58% loss) you would have lost less money than bitcoin ($25,716 high to $9,256 = 64% loss)
     
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  4. Peter

    Peter Well-Known Member

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    Bitcoin 7200
     
  5. Soprano16

    Soprano16 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Lol Peter, we'd be lost without you
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2018
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  6. Soprano16

    Soprano16 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If you're buying anything at its high you're a sucker

    Flip the numbers around and look at buying them at their lows and selling at their highs. Bitcoin was also way cheaper to buy then $9200 less than 12 months ago too

    Pretty pointless using the stats you like to prove your point and not the full stats
     
  7. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    That's what I used to think too. But my mind has changed for now because BTC is the coin which most traders enter trades or exit them. This alone creates huge BTC buying/selling activity. Exchanges are unlikely to introduce say an LSK/USD or an LSK/OMG trading pair, or any of the other top 100 alt-coins as there is probably a greater cost involved in offering such a service, the income received by way of trading fees may not be as profitable on many of those coins due to less volume and introducing "pick your alt-coin"/USD trading pairs may reduce liquidity in the "pick your own alt-coin"/BTC markets*. Exchanges that do offer a fiat currency as one of the trading pairs usually limit it to a couple of the major coins.

    So it while it possibly may settle below USD1000 due to a fall in total crypto market capitalization, it probably won't lose its place as the number one currency until exchanges are done away and/or traders find some other way to speculate on currency pairs for profit.

    *Not to mention shapeshift and possible atomic swaps.
     
  8. Soprano16

    Soprano16 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Furthermore to this, it's important to note that this is why diversification is so important

    I'm nowhere near 100% all in crypto, and if anyone is their crazy. It's no surprise that having a balanced portfolio is always the optimal play, so for a lot us that are in crypto and riding the waves of mania it's actually exciting and there's nothing wrong with putting part of your portfolio into something like this if you're capable of handling swings

    If not, stick to more simple and dare I say boring investments. I'm a stacker, always will be, but I also love the vulnerability and opportunities that crypto provides too and I'm more than happy to get in the mix and for those that aren't, cool, that's fine but you don't need to constantly bring the same FUD here time and time again. We get it, you don't like Crypto, so move along and put your energy into things you actually do like
     
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  9. Scottspurs

    Scottspurs Active Member

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    Well said

     
  10. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Looks like things are going to go further down then i first thought. The next support i can see is another 40% down from where we are now, so Bitcoin around the $4000 level. This might be an overshoot down or there might be something rotten going on behind the scenes.

    Again i think most people underestimate how much impact something like Tether & Bittrex could have on the general crypto market. Leverage + velocity can make a small value look very large, which makes it very hard to know what the true value is.

    But since it has gone down to my target range of $7000 I'm tempted to start doing some small cautious buying.
     
  11. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    No i dont like being personally abused when i voice an opinion, especially when it turns out I am right so i think I have the right to point this out in a thread about bitcoin being in a bubble.
    so by that standard poseidon was still a good share in march 1970?
    images.png

    Interesting how the biggest safe investment, gold, has crept up to $1700 when bitcoin is down to what, $8700 aud since i posted last night? Should be about $6k this time tomorrow
     
  12. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    To put that gold figure into perspective though over the same Sep-Now time period, it's gone almost nowhere. It was AU$1661 on the 1st sept and has swung up and down from that.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Soprano16

    Soprano16 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    When did I personally abuse you? I know you and SX threw words at each other but that was ages ago so I don't know why you would still reference that

    And in what world are you right? This hasn't even started yet. We'll see if you're right in 5 years time

    You can't just pick and choose the stats and graphs from certain periods to try and prove your point. Bringing up some random pump from 45 years ago is meaningless.

    Say what you like, but you will never in a million years get the returns in Gold/Silver than what you could in crypto. If I can put up a percentage of my portfolio to potentially 10x, 50x, 100x my investment then I will do that every day of the week
     
  14. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Everyone's hodling coz of Cliff High's reports (from last year) predicting BTC to bottom in mid Feb at $13,888. Past month Bix Wier always uses that an excuse to tell all his followers to continue hodling. The fool should be telling everyone to sell and buy back in after it bottoms out and the cup happens on chart.
     
  15. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Cliff High is a joke :p it amazes me that people follow him.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
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  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Never heard of him
     
  17. serial

    serial Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You couldn't make those returns now the bubble has burst. Any one can make money on paper in a bubble market(as demonstrated by the "randompump from 45 years ago") its about recognizing that it is a bubble and getting out at the right time that counts. Which no one who takes investment advice from mr eat my dick McAfee would have done
     
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  18. Soprano16

    Soprano16 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I guarantee that less than 1% of crypto owners are hodling because of him

    I'll go one further and bet that less than 1% of crypto owners have no idea who he even is, and rightly so
     
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  19. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Then you're a smart person. Don't waist your time with him.
     
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  20. Skyrocket

    Skyrocket Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    But not only do many people stacking crypto's follow him but they pay hefty sum for his monthly newsletter/forecasts.
     
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