Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Discussion in 'Digital Currencies' started by Bullion Baron, Dec 12, 2017.

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Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

  1. Very early (years left to run)

    19.8%
  2. Around the middle (could still run for months or a year)

    45.3%
  3. Very late (could end within days/weeks)

    22.1%
  4. It's not a bubble

    12.8%
  1. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Last edited: Oct 19, 2018
  2. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    lets be clear on the dutch tulip mania, it lasted for 6 months and should not be used as a comparison, you should know better than that.

    have a read of adoption curves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle

    the question is if crypto-currency is in innovators or early adopter phase?

    also note bitcoin has been around since 2009, its a proven technology and just because you didnt make money on it or it matches a bubble graph doesnt make it any less viable. you should not be linking its price to its ability, these should be separated.

    yes we are in a price speculation bubble now, proceed with caution. hype as played out with iota is a text book example of how hype without substance will inflate price.
     
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  3. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    not sure what you mean by "best" here, cheapest? fastest? governance model? there's too many variables and the beauty of some crypto currency projects is they solve specific problems, there is room for more than one, there doesn't have to be a dominator or one that does all. like the dot com bubble there are many companies that found their niece with overlap, browser wars a good example.

    so what are you measuring the bubble in terms of? market cap? total market cap vs shitcoin market cap? usd price per coin? adoption rates?

    a good argument against the market cap model https://www.wsj.com/articles/stop-talking-about-bitcoins-market-cap-1513015626
     
  4. Soprano16

    Soprano16 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The amount of bubble talk especially on this forum is getting really tiring now

    You can reference occurrences from the past, quote articles, etc etc but all this constant talk about bubbles does it create hyped FUD. Although you can grasp findings from previous situations there has truly never been anything like this to make a proper comparison so the simple fact is that nobody knows

    Anyone with half a brain knows these returns and pumps are not going to last forever, and that eventually there will be a pop, but instead of worrying about things you have zero control over, focus on the positives and trying to make as much money as you can while the going is good. It's easy to get caught up in the crypto world when you're living in it, but the reality is that most of the population still has no idea about it yet so who knows, the growth could continue for much much longer still

    For the next 3, 6 or 12 months, for anyone who is in crypto make it a priority. Follow twitter, reddit, youtubers everyday to stay consistently up to date with everything that is happening, and then use all of the information you gather to make your own decisions, because if you're truly prepared to put in the work (and accept the risks associated) this can potentially change your life. Might sound a bit dramatic, but it's true

    Either way, we know it could burst, we know there is risk, but instead of constantly focusing on the negatives try and put that energy into the positives. What's the absolute worst that could happen? You lose your money - so just invest what you can that won't impact your everyday life and future, and then you'll essentially have nothing to lose and can really focus on trying to capitalise

    That might not be appealing on a forum like this, because the reality is most stackers aren't risk takers at all, and are happy with small returns over the long term. There's nothing wrong with that, and I'm obviously a stacker too but I'll be damned if I'm going to let an opportunity like this or any of the over-hyped FUD stop me from taking a shot :D

    Do your own research, invest what you're comfortable with, and put strategies in place that cater to your own threshold and goals. Good Luck :)
     
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  5. BuggedOut

    BuggedOut Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The market is definitely getting carried away. From a technology perspective Bitcoin is rubbish and it now fails to fulfil it's original design (fast, cheap transactions) and has lost its market advantage. The fact it is still getting massive bids is due to the late market hype and media/institutions jumping on the bandwagon. All it has left is first-mover advantage and a recognised brand name. I doubt the current Bitcoin pump ends well.

    Cryto as a whole is just getting started though. What we need is better usability for cryptos and my guess is it comes via something like Evolution - the DASH mobile application and a user-friendly wallet that can *really* penetrate the mainstream market. Maybe it comes from something like STEEM being adopted as a new social network that has the potential to go viral. Maybe it is the launch of EOS and a fully scalable decentralised application that becomes a killer app (such as a decentralised stock exchange).

    Personally, I'd like to see a bit of a bust in the short term. Bitcoin cut down to size, Tether, BitConnect wiped out with USI Tech and other scammers. All the hot-money can f*** off for 6-12 months and let the new market leaders emerge. Then we might get a solid 2-3 years of bull run up to the dotcom levels and people can invest with a bit of knowledge and confidence. (Yeh, a pipe dream I know)

    Reality is likely to be very different. There is no way to know how crazy this current phase is going to get. All I know is that the longer is goes on and the crazier it gets, the more carnage it will cause when it ends and that might slow down or cripple the long term end game of extensive crypto adoption. So to me, mania is counter-productive at this point.
     
  6. Brendio

    Brendio Active Member

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    While servicing a machine in a pub today, my wife overheard a bar lady talking with the publican about her crypto holdings. She later came and asked me for tips of what will be the next big one.

    I am caught trying to work out whether this is a sign of more widespread adoption of crypto (ala eternal September), or today's equivalent of when the shoeshine boys are giving stock tips, it' time to sell. In any case, buying has spread to those who don't fully understand what they are buying, and are instead gambling on numbers on a screen.
     
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  7. Altima

    Altima Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hmm, seeing how she asked you for tips on what to buy, I think we still have a bit more time in this crazy bull run :p

    Might be different if she came over and told you what to buy ;)
     
  8. jerrygold

    jerrygold Active Member Silver Stacker

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    When Bitcoin dropped to 4000 recently and then hit $10000 USD it attracted a lot of press and attention. Then a week later its going up to $17000 and I think this is because people are signing up to exchanges and it takes time to get money into them. Usually in the past that is when a massive dump has happened making all those recent buyers hesitant and full of negative stories. Instead the price plateaued for a while, dropped a little and rebounded so all those new buyers are telling their friends positive stories right now about making 70% in a week, which could lead to even more investment.

    The longer bitcoin stays around these price points the higher any new bottom will be.
     
  9. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  10. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    [​IMG]

    worth having a look at the above figures, some 28 billion usd moved via bitcoin over the past 24 hours. no other coin comes close to that amount.
     
  11. OldFarmer

    OldFarmer New Member

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    How much was your initial investment, BB?
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2017
  12. jerrygold

    jerrygold Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Bitcoin verging on 20K usd today, up $2000 in 24 hours. Obligatory nocoiners thing....
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2017
  13. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Bullion Baron likes this.
  14. jerrygold

    jerrygold Active Member Silver Stacker

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    500k at once? Thats way more than I would have thought. Quite amazing.
     
  15. dozerz

    dozerz Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  16. systematic

    systematic Well-Known Member

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    Bitcoin.com co-founder sells entire stash, calls it ‘virtually unusable’ as a currency

    "BITCOIN entrepreneur Emil Oldenburg is getting out.

    In an interview with Swedish website Breakit, the co-founder and chief technology officer of Bitcoin.com — which offers various services including mining, currency exchange and wallet storage — warned very high fees and long transaction waiting times had made bitcoin “virtually unusable” as a currency.

    “An investment in bitcoin right now I would say is the most risky investment you can make. It is an extremely high risk. I’ve actually sold all my bitcoins recently and switched to bitcoin cash,” he said, referring to the bitcoin ‘fork’ designed to allow for faster, cheaper transactions."


    read more at: http://www.news.com.au/finance/mone...y/news-story/217509dd165fb12b41896927b38930d1
     
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  17. SilverDJ

    SilverDJ Well-Known Member

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    That falls under the No Shit Sherlock category.

    Is that the reason for the rally in BCH?

    I didn't think there was that much differential advantage in BCH long term?
     
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  18. leo25

    leo25 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Rally might be due to some exchanges offering BCH trading pairs. But no there isn't that much difference from BTC to BHC, so it makes no sense that BTC cost 10x more for a service that cost more to use and is slower. They just have different business models, BTC devs doesn't want people using BTC, while BCH devs whats people to use BHC.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2017
  19. jerrygold

    jerrygold Active Member Silver Stacker

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    I can never see any bitcoin based altcoin being higher valued than Bitcoin. But never say never in crypto! Also never listen to any guy with a lot of bitcoins and his altcoin investment advice, no one sells all their bitcoins unless they are an idiot.

    How is investing in bitcoin riskier than 95% of the shitcoins floating around right now? The guy makes no sense. The time it took me to write this post I can guarantee at least one shitcoin lost 90% of its value making it the riskiest investment you could have made an hour ago.
     
  20. systematic

    systematic Well-Known Member

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    There may be guys in the bitcoin space that know a helluva lot more than the average punter on silver stackers ...
     

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