Will we see the Friday Smackdown? Silver's up. Aussie's down. GSR is tapering. Stocks are down. Is it good bye bottom or is it good buy bottom?
I'm definitely in sit back and watch mode. Needs more time to see how it unfolds with precious metals and stocks imo. I'm dead to buying p.ms for the time being, probably for life, and would only buy a stock if it was looking like a great bargain (ex mining services or miners) For stocks I'm going to be more tempted if they go lower while metals rise - but don't have strong view yet whether that will happen. Don't understand what's going on with the USD either - has it peaked for time being or will it keep going? Will it have a minor retrace or will it have a full correction that will give gold some lift?
That dip yesterday was the minor retrace. The USD got a little ahead of its trend line, corrected to the previous resistance area of 85 and has resumed its uptrend. With the USD just having broken out of a multi year channel, I wouldn't count on a full correction soon. Who knows? Per Norcini, I believe significant resistance is the 89 area.
I think the markets are sending a message to the FED who meets on Oct 28, 29 to either promise to keep interest rates low for a long time or do more easing, so they can continue to make lot's of money on Wall Street and keep on having their 6 digit bonuses this Christmas. the crash has begun unless Wall Street gets their quantitaive easing drug.
If the Fed is forced to return to QE it will prove the US economy can not survive without it. If the bottom wasn't already in for gold and silver before then it would be at the point where QE returned or was being contemplated. Either way 2015 should be a defining year for the US economy and the price of precious metals.
With the bigger picture in the world at the moment, feels like now is time to buy again. Though I have sat out for last 6 months so maybe its just the itch coming back. Really should see a doctor about that
Should be an interesting week, it could define the course of the next few years. Long weekend in the US, so Monday action will be tepid. Tuesday should be the best indication, which will be Wednesday morning our time. It's now 3 1/2 years since the collapse of the PM market and it's starting to look like the bottom is in. It could be a watershed week for the industry.
Neither QE, the stock market, the strength of the US $....none of those have correlated all the time with the spot prices in the metals. So to those who are arguing that based on what the Fed will do, that's where the spot will go....no, not really. I'm also not stating that the Fed QE doesn't have ANY impact....it can, but it doesn't correlate directly....many factors play into investor sentiment toward the metals. We could see a bull trap setting up at any time over the next few weeks. .
But, but, what about Bo (BO Polny) he's been charting for 10 years, advising clients for 1 year, and he is absolutely certain that we've hit bottom and 2000 is still feasible for 2014, on the way to 10,000+ by 2021. Anything else would defy a 'master cycle' And Richard Russell who is a legend for making secular calls, albeit a bit off his game lately - he too thinks the bottom was made recently when 1180 was again rejected.
