Interesting Charts Thread

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by finicky, Oct 15, 2016.

  1. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Karoon Gas KAR
    Disc: not held

    Weekly
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_big_34.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  2. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN)
    A low price to book (P/B = 0.75 yesterday) oil exploration company with no debt, lots of cash ($87m). Market cap yesterday was $102m.
    Price returned to historic and recent support resistance level of 10c.
    News today sees it up 35% by lunch-time, with 2+ yr high od daily volume so far.

    CVN decade monthly, not showing today's movement
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_big_39.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  3. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Would you buy this chart?
    I'm disinclined, despite a subscription advisory to do so.
    Chart looks to be in the balance with some ominous overtones. The head and shoulders pattern is obvious with a neckline at $5.50.
    This week's end might result in a moderately bullish stick sandwich pattern from the last three candles, but the week is far from over.

    I buy the potential of the business as explained by my advisory service. The company offers a cloud based software as a service (SaaS) to the major constructions sector. It aims to get big projects delivered in time and on budget by enhancing collaboration between all the participants. The company is described as having a 'long runway' ahead of it as 'penetration' of the industry with such I.T overview is in its infancy. Surprisingly Aust, NZ, and UK are ahead of the world with this sort of sophistication. They are at roughly 25% penetration, wheras rest of world is at "mid single digiits". Aconex (ACX) is easily the dominant such company in AU, NZ and UK.

    The premium you would be paying for future growth is huge. The stock is trading at price to book ratio P/B of 10. This is for a company that delivered return on equity ROE of only 9.3% in fy16. The price to earnings ratio P/E based on fy16 is 103! Puts a lot of faith in the future.

    Aconex (ACX) weekly
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_big_45.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  4. Old Codger

    Old Codger Active Member Silver Stacker

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    AFAIK, charts can tell of the past, but cannot tell me the future.

    if that was so then everybody would be a millionaire!

    JMO

    OC
     
  5. whinfell

    whinfell Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I think you're talking about Aconex, not Acrux? :/
     
  6. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    G'damit ur right
     
  7. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    IGO - has a few multi mineral projects including 30% of gold mine jv Tropicana.
    Analysts are unenthusiastic at this price.
    Auspicious consolidation imo. Gap up today.
    I wont be buying.

    Independence Group (IGO) daily
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_big_48.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  8. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    Woodside looks to have bottomed and is trying to break out above 30. I suspect it will fail but will keep an eye on it.


    [​IMG]
     
  9. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    woodside doing a bit better than I thought. up over 31 today.
     
  10. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    woodside dropped below 30 today but oil is spiking on the OPEC meeting tonight. could be interesting tomorrow.
     
  11. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just had to post this. Have no intention of buying. An almost perfect looking rounding bottom.
    Tiny candlestick bodies through the low, blip of 'harbinger' volume Dec 2015, massive volume now without causing extreme candles.

    Cautions: currently being pumped on a twitter account - which is where I found it, $NAE. Recently completed cap raise December 2015 @ 2c, almost certainly another cr*p company, technical traders extracting money from new shareholders. Remind you of anything?

    New Age Exploration (NAE) all data monthly chart
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_big_64.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  12. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Flight Centre (FLT)

    Apparently Flight has recently been downgraded by a Morgan Stanley analyst with a price target of $25. Maybe this is affecting the price, however the chart was already vulnerable. The monthly chart could be interpreted as a descending triangle with support looking shaky. A confirmed break could easily see the target, but too early to say.

    My subscription advisory service recently put a renewed buy on FLT. Good dividend payer, but paying too much would cancel out that benefit.

    http://www.fool.com.au/2016/12/12/why-flight-centre-travel-group-ltd-shares-have-plunged-today/

    FLT All Data Monthly chart
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_big_67.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  13. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Vocus Communications (VOC)

    Two charts for VOC: the monthly for perspective, the hourly to show $4.05 support wearing thin. Charts are at a critical point and looks like lower?
    Interested in VOC but my subscription advisory service has not yet revised their sell recommendation and the chart is still a precipice. Shortman is showing 9.4% of VOC share issuance as shorted, ranking it at #11 top shorted stock, but never sure how to interpret shorting.

    VOC monthly
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_big_68.gif][​IMG][/imgz]

    VOC hourly
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_big_69.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  14. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Previously mentioned on this thread, Aconex Ltd (ACX) has now made a return trip to the $5.50 neckline of the head and shoulders topping pattern. Strong 8% rise yesterday. I would have liked to buy ACX but was hoping for a deeper correction. Aconex has been the second most shorted stock on the ASX until recently.

    ACX daily
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_acx.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  15. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Vocus Communications (VOC)
    Didn't drop significantly lower after breaching 4.00 - 4.05 support and rapidly got back up again which I see as bullish. Won't comment again on VOC unless I am buying. Suspect it's quite a good buy, but my subscription advisory is not yet re-tipping it.

    VOC daily
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_voc_dly.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  16. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    woodside is doing better than I thought. Looks like its anticipating another jump in oil. grinding its way up and today its up over 32 dollars.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Breville Group (BRG)

    Bullish cup and handle continuation pattern?
    Could be failing at the prior high I guess (double top), but I wouid favour the cup and handle scenario if forced to guess.

    Book Value ($): 1.36, 1.55, 1.64, 1.78, 1.89

    Return on Equity (%): 25.90, 25.10, 22.90, 20.20, 20.40

    Price/Book Ratio: 4.53

    Trailing yield: 3.3% ff

    Not cheap, but is there growth ahead that might justify the multiple?

    BRG 5 yr mthly
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_brg.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     
  18. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    looks like BHP is getting ready for another leg up.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. phrenzy

    phrenzy In Memoriam - July 2017 Silver Stacker

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    On a TA basis after the news about Conrad steel add stop in Orion production already priced in, didn't that look like a double top? I'm genuinely asking as I'm trying hard to put my trading helmet on.

    Are you looking for a breakout above around $26.50. I don't own but it'pertinent for a family member.

    I'd be curious about your analysis on pen as well (maybe move this to there), fundamentally they have new agreements for fast growth in South Africa and say they will be cashflow positive by Q2 but I'm at a chart analysis,. TA wise surely it's overbought and the truck is to maintain a good so long as it stands up over the breakout price? For a long term hold and possibly a buy again if it drops to a better level but maintains above previous resistance?

    Lastly, I'd love to see an ASX 200 chart analysis, what's in it for equities here generally?
     
  20. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Having been tortured by the sharemarket for a while now I've become pretty wary of new hooks and 'themes' when they appear and are echoed by the institutional and advisory pros. But I'm willing to give this 'Asian inbound tourism' theme a bit of credence if I can get a dividend payer with growth prospects at a low price. I'm keeping an eye on Mantra Group (MTR) not because the chart is decisive, but because it's playing about on the ledge of current $3 support after a steep fall. There's still the chance it might fall further, which is what I would need before a buy.

    A few cautions are that it has a short history of being listed, it is only a modest 9-10% ROE stock, is vulnerable to the A$ should it strengthen, is vulnerable to the health of target Asian economies, and some theorise about disruption from Uber accomodation like AirBnB

    Who is Mantra Group Ltd?

    Mantra Group Limited (MTR) is an Australian accommodation operator. MTR's portfolio consists of a total of 127 properties and over 15,000 rooms across Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia. Currently, MTR operates in three main business divisions which are CBD, Resorts and Central Revenue & Distribution.

    http://www.fool.com.au/2017/01/17/attention-the-inbound-tourism-boom-is-just-getting-started/

    MTR all data monthly
    [imgz=http://forums.silverstackers.com/uploads/1893_mtr.gif][​IMG][/imgz]
     

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