Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by finicky, Oct 15, 2016.
Put three charts in previous posts
Came across the third surprising chart when reading this article
What the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) actually is too complicated for me and I'll let you struggle with the concept. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/S&P_GSCIp
It is 41% weighted to oil and 71% weighted to general energy. Put it this way, if it's strong then commodities as a class should doing better for investors than stocks.
So the chart is the ratio of the HSCI to the S&P500 index, i.e commodities to U.S stocks big picture, and suggests an historical low in that ratio with the implication of a future major correction in favour of commodities.
I have added here two more charts in prior posts: All Data Qtrly (i.e 3 monthly) charts for Woodside Petroleum (WPL) and BHP Ltd. Both these long term charts could be breaking free of multi-year downtrend resistances (put a ruler across the peaks) and look at the high volume for Dec Qtr of WPL - it's a chart that gives me a buy impulse, but I wont be.
BHP Ltd - Vigorous breakout from cup and handle; should head back to the mid thities, my guess. Don't know what's driving it, maybe oil and copper? Articles have been coming out that it's the turn of commodities to outrun general stocks, e.g Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (GSCI) versus S&P500 for the next few years.
Position: LT holds
Sentiment: bullish medium term, but BHP poor total shareholder return long term, list of major calamitous misjudgements from totally unaccountable managers - avoid except to trade. Long term SELL
Confirmed weekly break of rim at $28 of 'cup & handle' continuation pattern
Haven't tried to delve into the fundamentals of Mayne but I like the chart. Broke free of the etched downtrend in Nov/Dec 2017 with indicators strongly diverging positive and making small bodied candles. The peaks of weekly volume are positive and a higher low is now being followed by a higher high. Now challenging resistance zone just above 75c
Not holding. My sort of chart but not my sort of company with the debt and recent almost doubling of shares on issue - although eps has kept up.
Mayne pharmacy (MYX)
Nice chart there,looks set to get up to previous minor support,then major support,would definitely wait for breakout prior to an entry.
Commonwealth Bank (CBA)
This is the all data Quarterly chart - each candle equals 3 months.
The massively tested support level is obvious and the price is now only 50c away.
So has the last 3+ years been a sort of ABC major corrective move of the primary bull trend, or is the stock completing a major top? Discuss, lol.
Commonwealth Bank CBA Quarterly Chart
Ramsay Health Care (RHC)
Monthly Chart is suggesting break of irregular head and shoulders neckline? Neckline at 60 or 55, take your pick, the June candle has broken both levels on high volume. Of interest also is the momentum indicators not confirming the higher peaks in 2015-16. Watch and wait imo.
Highly leveraged acquisitive private hospital business that on June 21 down-guided expected 'core' earnings per share growth to 7% for fy18 from the previously guided 'core' eps growth of 8-10% that was given in its H1 report. Always reviewed as a safe quality growth business with 'demographic tailwinds' type jargon.
RHC Decade Monthly
BHP setting up again.
BHP - daily bullish pennant? Could be starting breakout today. Recent hourly pattern of rallying in first hour then coasting rest of day.
Chalice Gold Mines (CHN)
Price has moved outside my best fit downtrend resistance rail. Short term (daily chart) rounding low formed under 15c level resistance. Two blips of higher daily volume.
Company has a good story as background imo
Separate names with a comma.