Gold. It took me a long time to detach emotion from trading, but was the most profitable skill I learned. Emotional investing will kick your ass..... if it hasn't already.
Since I started investing in 2001 I have acquired PM on a regular basis - if that is having my ass kicked - I enjoyed it !!! As an investor/saver I simply buy on dips and have done so for years. I dont sell so where is the ass kicking ?? Obviously everyone is emotional and pretending you can function like some sort of automaton is total BS. You try and make decisions based on price and all the technical BS is just that BS. Today this is a totally manipulated market and as sure as I am typing this note unless you are Ben Bernanke or one of his mates you know squat. Like Andy Hoffman says, play in their game with their rules you will get slaughtered. The only way to win is buy slowly - pick the dips and don't screw with them in the paper market. Stick to un-leveraged physical, buy what you can comfortably afford and you will be safe.
Nope. That's not getting your ass kicked. But it's not emotional either.... more repetitive, mechanical, habitual(?). Sorry, but I call this BS.
Call it whatever you want but it has worked just great for me. Mates I have who have bought on leverage in the paper markets have been burned over the years. True sometimes they get it right and make cash but often it blows up and they lose out. I still have the metals I bought at $300/oz so that suits me just fine. The paper markets are just that paper so you may as well trade oil, corn or if the dockers win the AFL premiership? The relationship to PM is very slender and these days almost bugger all. You don't control the trades on the paper market and while you can fool yourself into believing you are superman I doubt you will fly.
You are right, paper is paper, and I do trade other markets. While we all dream of disconnect, it is bleedingly obvious that phys price is still tied to spot. WTF? While neither of us control price, I control every one of my trades. Those with burnt fingers may have been out of control. Apathetically sitting on a stack, watching price swing through the cycles is far from control.... or superman for that matter. It is also lost opportunity IMO, but some can fool themselves into believing it is a master stroke.
Clearly you do not understand what I am saying. So let me explain in clear terms. You think that by dabbling in the casino of paper you on short term bets can rake in the cash. You like all the punters out there in the stock market, Crown casino or paper metal market think you have a system to beat the system. Well you don't they design the system so you lose. Occasionally they let you win so to sucker more people in. I see value in real things in a real world, like real metal, property and assets that people over hundreds or thousands of years value. That is what I buy and hold on to. I have no desire to sell these and as long as you are carefull and don't over commit you can sit the game out until the true value is revealed. Do I care if I bought gold at $500 or $1000 or $1500 per oz -yes it concerns some people but as we are all aware the price is currently undervalued and over the next few years is likely to resume its upward trend. PM unlike property are undervalued and with high degree of certainly will be higher in 5 years. Property may not be. You paper dollar will be with 100% certainty, worth less far less.
On the contrary. I know I can can consistently make money from trading because I have been doing it for about 20 years. Paper is only a casino if you treat it like one. Naysayers will beg to differ because they haven't bothered to learn. Interesting perspective though, considering you hold a relatively illiquid unprotected naked long in the same market you claim is designed so you lose - (no disconnect yet). Also interesting that while traders use strategic risk management to ensure no blow ups, and take advantage of market supply/demand dynamics and price movements to profit accordingly, that your "safe" method involves one big assumption about valuation and price targets based on emotion.
'Naked Long' - listen mate I have the metal and the property - there is nothing naked here. Naked is when you trade a commodity that you don't hold like paper gold.... there is no gold.... I have no price target and no assumptions. All I have is the real deal - the commodity. I don't need anything else as the paper dealers and money printers will do all the work for me. I sit and watch the paint dry and gaze upon my old 1oz Krugerrand that cost me $300. As far as illiquid - haha I bet there are 1000 SS who will give me $1200+ for the coin in the next 60 minutes -a modest (400%)+ gain. I think you are fooling yourself if you believe that you have consistently made cash in the paper market over 20 years without a significant loss. If so you must write a book called the Australian Jesse Livermore. 'Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."
Denial is probably one of the best known defense mechanisms, used often to describe situations in which people seem unable to face reality. Denial functions to protect the ego from things that the individual cannot cope with.
Yep, unprotected, naked and long is definitely the way to go wrcmad - give it a rest Kudos to you for having developed the skill to trade markets and do it profitably, but you don't need to keep crapping on anyone that is not doing the same. Not everyone is willing or capable of getting into that sort of short term trading. Buy/hold does work in the long run due to the power of compounding - but yes there can be large fluctuations along the way. Both methods have merit
Evening all, "Apathetically sitting on a stack, watching price swing through the cycles is far from control.... or superman for that matter. It is also lost opportunity IMO, but some can fool themselves into believing it is a master stroke." Hmmm, isn't that what central banks do? Yes it is. And since if they fart we get the stink, I would call that control. Master stroke? Possibly not, however, fight them at your peril, they are the biggest kid in the playground. Also, as far as this thread is concerned - I didn't see any 'apathetically sitting on a stack' - I actually saw a strategy - a vastly different thing. And personally, until a race is over - it would be a very brave person to question someone's strategy whilst the race is in progress - especially in times like this. People were thought pretty silly in Greek Cyprus for keeping gold and cash under the bed too - until a couple of months back when they were the only ones left standing. I would not be too quick to judge - the universe and Murphy have a way of wiping smiles off smug faces pretty quick. Have a great night all Gazza.
Now I am trolling lol. All I did was express my opinion of investing in PM which is not what Dan Norcini was discussing. He was talking about trading in the post put up by thatguy. I tried to explain the difference. Based on several opinions, documents and events which can be seen on Bill Murphy GATA site, I have no doubt that 99% of SS members will agree the current markets especially PM markets are bogus and manipulated. Once you accept that then try to convince people that paper market prices can be predicted with any accuracy and that is where you and I part company. I explained my idea of investing Vs what you describe as trading. It is clear from your reply that you are oblivious to the difference. I have no problem with people taking cash to a casino and gambling but that is not investing. Likewise trading is gambling and like many casino gamblers they all have their methods as do you. I have no problem with that until you call it investing which it is not ! Smart investing is buying undervalued assets and holding them until they are overvalued. Buying and selling short term contracts in a rigged market is a very different ploy. I am sorry if I pissed on your parade but that is my belief.
OK - I can agree to disagree. I think you are a punter, you think I am a punter. While our definition of gambling is worlds apart, in the end we are both after the same result.
@theiain1 : different TF here and different view We can see an ascending triangle on 4H, price going up along with the support TL and will most likely face first major hurdle around $1420, next big ones being $1440 and $1480-85, for the time being I believe a daily close above $1400 would bullish. Cheers
looking to add to gold posi with a break above 1420. Nikkei taking a dump and SP500 looking a tad shakey seems to bode well for gold (shortish term). Pretty much what Kam-L outlined above. A lot going around about the 6th as a pivotal day
