I'm sure many people have differing opinions on the effectiveness of analyzing charts and chart patterns, as well as trying to measure sentiment when it seem worldwide finance markets and political policies affect the market so... However, many people use do various methods of analyzing charts both long and short term to draw their lines in the sand and I think it would be good if there was a place for discussion about this on SS, in gold as well as silver. In a similar fashion to the thread on silver; Found here; I've compiled a Gigantic gold chart for some eye candy and your reference. Charts, Stats or links to technical commentaries are encouraged. Comments, and opinions are also welcome. Chart is again linked to from the post below, I'll be making an effort to update these on a monthly basis, for anyone who's interested.
Note: This is an external link to the full chart, you will need to click on it to zoom in. ( 52 megapixels : 168kb )
OK, I'll have a crack. This chart looks a bit simpler to me than the silver chart. Gold chart also looks ominous to me. Descending triangle in an up trend can be a powerful reversal pattern. Multiple tests of $1550 support as well as price below 200 day MA have bearish notions, as the more support is tested, the more likely a downward break will occur. Triangle base range suggests that, should price breakout to the downside, it will move to around $1200. On the up side, price has to break both the 200 day MA and the descending resistance line to clear around $1700 before a clear upwards would be seen.
Whilst wrcmad's analysis regarding descending triangles in uptrend is correct, this particular triangle is marked by a series of higher lows with long exhaustion tails. This pattern is bullish. Yesterday's breakout candle needs confirmation today. The XMM is still bearish, the XGD made a hammer yesterday so there might be a slight retracement today. In either case neither indice is indicating to go long at present. Strangely the $A is still holding up well, whch is unusual with positive gold moves. It usually goes the other way due to the perception of it being a risk-on currency. Perhaps we are entering a new paradigm where commodity currencies are better viewed because they are backed by real assets...time will tell.
I'm sorry to say this, but price will dip soon. Rationale? Coz i just bought some.. (buy now, cry now)
Up in USD and down in EURO. Gold chart in euro and gold chart in USD actually show some indication on where the price in heading..
I agree with the exhaustion tails being bullish, however I think this may be out-weighed by the 1550 support continually being tested (bearish). Price action is just keeps knocking on this support ATM (circled) - the longer this occurs, the less it will take for a downward break. If current consolidation does break upwards (orange line), price may only reach around 1675 before again finding resistance (blue line). Only time will tell....
Interesting on the short-term daily that, although seemingly in an ascending triangle reversal pattern, gold is poised and struggling to get through the 38.2% Fib resistance. This also happens to be nearly exactly the 200 day EMA. Difficult to guess which way next. Given the above chart ^^^ still reckon an upward break will find resistance at around 1675. Downward break will be a screamer. Time will tell.
I've just updated the long term chart again after this weeks action. See post #2 for the link to the file. Funny enough, its sitting on that figure right now, with a very small white candle. Next week leading up to the Jackson hole meeting will certainly be interesting.
Just picked this up over at JSM: http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/08/27/jims-mailbox-1022 Louise Yamada talking long term technicals on CNBC [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zY3h9QLeq5w[/youtube]
Here's the very long term channel she was talking about on the 45 year log scale chart she was referring to:
rince and repeat shiny white stuff is going like a train... shiny yellow stuff is stuck in neutral going no where
