2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Agree with your analysis based on the current situation. A drop to $1840 is only a drop of 2% and it will be negated by the rise in the dollar. But on the other hand, if there were to be "civil war" as a result of a contested election, gold may rise. India is also on the way to achieve herd immunity for it's 1.5 billion people by Q1 2021 so as the largest consumer of gold, it will be positive.


     
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  2. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    This is a very interesting analysis on gold's rallies with technical analysis - the long-term trend is particularly interesting:



    According to the video, a "cup and handle" are about to form - which means a huge climb could ignite in several months. But until then, we might see a dip down to the mid-1700's.

    I also expect a dip. The question is whether it will be a sharp short-lived drop or a long gradual drop in gold's price.

    I think the next dip will precede a more powerful uptrend towards the next historic high. But until then, we'll have to get through this dip and the US elections (which will either deepen the correction of empower gold to climb).
     
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  3. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

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    [email protected]! Sorry to say,but you are ahead of yourself. Go back and read please this post again. I've only confirmed the facts from my sources what @spannermonkey was saying is true .I can't comment if this prove or doesn't prove that there are any puppet masters. You could be right,but you can be wrong as well. On the contrary- Some people believe only in your own EGO(God Edge Out) in order to be comforted....and the are...
     
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  4. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Another good Marc Faber interview (from August), still valid now that "recovery" is occurring:


    The 33% GDP growth that the US has recorded now is basically a tiny rebound calculated based on the previous sluggish growth.

    If you walk 10 miles in a day, it's good.
    The next day you walk 2 miles.
    On the 3rd day you walk 4 miles - now the 3rd day you just had 50% growth (vs. day nr.2). But that's -60% vs the first day's 10 mile walk.

    This is the kind of "recovery" that we'll see in most countries. It's actually a contraction.

    If we get a vaccine in November post-elections, as Trump promised, then he will "ride the waves of re-election" to launch the new vaccine.
    This could potentially boost the dollar.

    Right now, foreign exchange dealers/banks are selling dollar at higher price. Forexers seem to know something...
     
  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    With lock downs still in place and bans on international flights, you can't expect full recovery. But once the pandemic is declared over and vaccination available, the bounce back will be ballistic. And I will worry more about inflation then.
     
  6. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I've just had a glimpse of local news, mostly pro-biden although more balanced, not like CNN. The oligarchy must have spent more than a hundred billion to buy all the media worldwide to back Biden. They could have given every American a $300 walmart voucher instead.
     
  7. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Has anyone seen this?

     
  8. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I think tourism will boom, because a profusion of people are determined to travel right after this "madness" is over.
    Most employees have more holidays accumulated (due to working from home) and they have more money saved than ever before.

    I expect a mad fever to travel after the vaccination spreads, even BEFORE the pandemic is announced to be "over".

    Question is: whether the new vaccine(s) will protect for lifetime or you're in for periodical shots. (Flu shots generally protect for 2 months, perhaps 3, but almost never for 4 months).
     
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  9. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Marc Faber has a "throne toilet" in his Chiang Mai house (1:47): :D:D:D:D:D:D:D

     
  10. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Great Armstrong video about illusions people have when buying gold for "hedging against hyperinflation". He talks about money hoarding (people hoard money, because they don't trust their future and this shrinks the money supply), then people start not trusting the money, so they start spending it (buying art, real estate, coins, antiquities) and at this phase tangible assets become more popular, thus leading to an inflationary spiral.

    The increase of money supply alone doesn't lead to this "spiral", but rather loss of trust in the government/currency.

    Armstrong says, it's not supply of money, but confidence that we should watch.

    He makes very interesting points, but I personally still think currency can get devalued drastically even if confidence hasn't dwindled.
    Isn't Venezuela a great example for that? Their currency went toiletpaper due to economic-political conjuncture. I don't see the loss of confidence there...

     
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  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    We were debating whether our politicians are subject to the orders of some secret cabal or not. Your input is meaningless as what you post neither confirms nor denies this so why bother saying anything then?
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2020
  12. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Like what? They’re just traders.
     
  13. Markco2

    Markco2 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Our currency is already devaluing through inflation.
    When you shop at supermarkets, more often than not, you are purchasing products that may appear to be the same price, but less in quantity. Our energy bills have been skyrocketing, water and council rates is another one. Tollways more expensive. Maccas, smaller product that still tastes the same (Sh-t). Education, Dentistry, Veterinarian, Insurance, most professional fees are more expensive. Sure, we have much more variety in products. I see this as a form of shadow inflation against our currency. I agree with Armstrong that the real killer will be confidence. If we don't have confidence or trust in our government who for want of better word, lack true leadership, we don't have a hope of creating real jobs that secures the future. You can cut interest rates all you like and continue propping up the economy in certain sectors, but that gives no confidence in the real world. To include a person who has worked 1 hour a fortnight as being employed is a joke. Real businesses are being destroyed especially in the southern backward state of Victoria. Thanks to Dan - The Dunny Man. There will be a trickle down affect over the next year or so as more people come of Jobkeeper and are faced with the harsh reality of having to work more than one job and for less money than what they have been used too, just to make ends meet and that is, if they can find extra work.

    Cheers Markco2
     
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  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Armstrong is correct regarding hyperinflation - which strangely aligns him with the MMT school. His point that we should stop listening to the rhetoric is particularly applicable to PM bulls, as many of them are stuck in a century's old, outdated view of money and the money supply.

    The value of a currency is derived from the confidence that users of the currency have in the issuer. The value of the AUD , the USD etc is derived from the confidence users of those currencies have in the US government tied to the confidence they have in the US economy, and the Oz government and Australian economy etc. This applies to every nation. No one has confidence in the Venezuelan Bolivar. But it's not because of the inflation of the money supply, it's because no one has confidence in the Venezuelan government or its economy.

    So the take from that is that simply issuing increasing levels of sovereign debt will not cause the USD or AUD to collapse. They will only collapse if the economies and governments of the US or Oz collapse. And that won't happen. The governments won't collapse because the governments have the guns, and the economies won't collapse because the economies of both nations are too valuable and too capable of meeting consumer demand. The only thing that will cause a collapse will be if the governments are overthrown, either from inside or from some external force. Both a loss of confidence in the nation's currency issuer and in the economic capacity of the nation to meet demand are pre-requisites for hyperinflation.
     
  15. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The central banks arent secret. They tell exactly what they do and what their role is publicly.
    If they control the money then they control everything.
     
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  16. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    And in Australia their task is to maintain financial stability. And they do this simply by supporting the banking industry. Hence why banks will not crash.
     
  17. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Theres so much wrong here I dont even know where to start....

    Maybe I'll finish my beer and hit the sack.
     
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  18. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Actually you don't know where to start because you have no idea in the first place so don't even bother mate.
     
  19. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    I should define what constitutes a collapse: it's where the value of a currency goes to zero. That means we may observe the AUD tanking (and less likely the USD) but neither will collapse.
     
  20. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Your right I wont bother starting with the other post. No profit in that.

    Collapse is value of currency goes to zero. So what constitutes value? That it will heat a wood stove?
     

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