The next recession we had to have

Oddjob said:
For those who can remember the last real recession....As PK called it "The recession we had to have".

Watching this through again after many years, it struck me how many themes / issues that were relevant then are just as front and centre today...including US tariffs.

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US tariffs only accounts for 6% of Australian exports
It’s nothing
Do as the rest of the world is doing, find a better customer
 
Alan Kohler talking about the economy. About time someone said the obvious.

In short the housing market issue is government made not market made. Government set the insentive and people followed.

 
Unfortunately if the government makes housing and unattractive investment then who provides the houses for those that don't want to or can't buy a property?

Governments have steadily reduced the supply of social housing per capita over the past few decades and it has been the investors that have picked up the slack.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Unfortunately if the government makes housing and unattractive investment then who provides the houses for those that don't want to or can't buy a property?

Governments have steadily reduced the supply of social housing per capita over the past few decades and it has been the investors that have picked up the slack.
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If government didn't making housing so unaffordable, then the rental and social housing people that can't afford a property now would be able to buy/build. And the few that really have no money would have enough availability with the social housing currently available.

Remeber governments today don't solve problems, they just create problems. So if you think there is a need for them to do something to help, then your starting assumptions are wrong.
 
Our city officials are currently building "affordable" housing that the middle class can't even afford right now.
We have more people dropping off the list than are applying for it.

The land alone is worth more than these people will ever make.
 
leo25 said:
If government didn't making housing so unaffordable, then the rental and social housing people that can't afford a property now would be able to buy/build.
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Obviously you wouldn't expect that all renters would buy/build even if they had the capacity. Therefore there would still remain significant demand for properties that are leased out by private landlords so making housing an unattractive investment asset would compound the problems of shortages that already exist.

A better suite of strategies would be to address prudential regulatory policies, immigration, town planning, tax concessions etc etc, all of which Kohler touched upon yet didn't really pursue.

Yes governments create problems, but they can help by addressing the problems they created in the first place.
 
On the shortage of housing:

The impossibility of the 1.2 million housing target was spelled-out in black and white by Charter Keck Cramer:

Australian states and territories will need to deliver record levels of new dwellings over this 5-year period.

For context, at peak years of supply in FY 2017, there were around 220,000 new dwellings delivered in Australia. During this time both the greenfield and apartment markets were extremely active, and this was underpinned by foreign and local investors and lower tax settings.

Critically, we were also at a very different point in the housing market and economic cycle and did not have a costs of delivery crisis preventing the feasible delivery of new product…

It is our view that a 5-year window to rebalance the housing market, whilst well intentioned, is simply not realistic. Many changes at the planning level alone will take 1-2 market cycles (7-10 years minimum) to flow through once implemented.

This is also assuming that the housing market is not dislocated as it currently is, which means it will almost certainly take even longer to occur…
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https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/06/australia-is-living-in-housing-fantasy-land
 

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All the grants really do is just increase the cost of housing.

There's no easy solution and even if governments actnwisely it's going to take at least a decade to address many of the issues and none of them are going to change the market's taste for housing.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
All the grants really do is just increase the cost of housing.

There's no easy solution and even if governments actnwisely it's going to take at least a decade to address many of the issues and none of them are going to change the market's taste for housing.
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They always act but imo not in ways that benefit the majority long term, 2nd term this time i was bit shocked this time got in again but hold the most seats even with only around 33% votes. Im sick of seeing Albos face and mumbling BS he should be PM of the pride parade...not the country,be comical to hear him rave on bout how he understands how people doing it tough then get tax payers to pay to pave the road to newly acquired 3 million plus house :eek:;) these policies are sabotaged most and theyre committed. In the end they profit and pull ahead while many struggle and are stationary or even go backwards
 
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