Gold at ATH.....what do your tea leaves say?
- Thread starter mybullion.com.au
- Start date
The US has not bought or sold any of its gold
Clearly there's an issue with your buy high/sell low premise if the world's major CBs aren't actually doing any buying or selling!
Last edited:
That could be correct, like I said they don't give a shit about gold or more likely it's the accounting method they use. Rather than "mark-to-market" they use "historical cost". The RBA on the other hand values its gold
https://www.rba.gov.au/qa/gold-holding.html
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/publications/html/ecb.faq_ECB_Annual_Accounts.en.html
And you'll have to excuse the ECB for labelling their gold assets as reserves.
Yeah they made sure to include gold in the reserves.
I wonder when that was changed.
Probably just a big accident and simply unprecedented they would say.
We see what's going on haha. Slick move.
I wonder when that was changed.
Probably just a big accident and simply unprecedented they would say.
We see what's going on haha. Slick move.
Which CBs are you talking about? It's clear from everything debated previously that different CBs have different policies when it comes to gold reserves. For most advanced nations you'll find this is the answer why the US or Oz have gold reserves but no longer buy/sell:
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
You don't react on what I said, you shuffle terminology.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Alike I showed along figures: central banks buy and sell gold.That could be correct, like I said they don't give a shit about gold or more likely it's the accounting method they use. Rather than "mark-to-market" they use "historical cost". The RBA on the other hand values its goldreservesassets at mark-to-market. As does the ECB.
https://www.rba.gov.au/qa/gold-holding.html
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/publications/html/ecb.faq_ECB_Annual_Accounts.en.html
And you'll have to excuse the ECB for labelling their gold assets as reserves.
During the nineties and early 200x, they sold, price was $300. That was a good time to BUY gold.
Since, they purchased, price rose now to $3000. You declare that a good time to buy gold?
When they reverse again to selling, they'll make golds price lagging far behind other prices, just like during their previous selling period.
Regardless the words they stick on their gold stock. It's not about gold, it's about its price, a speculant buys gold in the hope that it reward, but it's not the gold that rewards, it's the price at which you bought, and sold it...
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Near the end of the Cold War, the desintegration of the Sovjet Union, ruble printing, extreme devaluation, a person of the Federal Reserve had a meeting with a person of GOSbank, with as goal to make Russians again trust rubles.
The proposal was to temporarly link ruble to gold. Temporarly. To lure people back to ruble, to then cheat again.
The Fed person said that this had worked in the US. People trusted the dollar because of remembering the gold standard. A psychological tactic.
Governments always maintained a gold stockpile. That didn't change. What did change what the way they used it, and the way they allowed people to use it.
A gold standard should mean every holder of currency can exchange the currency for gold at a bank. As a claim. the bank cannot refuse.
That is since a century not the case anymore in the US.
From early 193x to early 197x, people were even forbidden to possess gold.
Central banks don't want too much gold in the hands of people.
Another way to achieve that, is increasing its price.
Like for ex the past 2 decades, price was driven from $300 to $3000.
That's actually limiting the amount gold.
Instead of 10 ounces in the beginning, you get now 1 ounce. 10 times less. Job done.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Now, what you say is a load of BS, the same load of BS that is always told at market tops and bottoms, simply because a sell at top requires people to buy at top, and a buy back in at bottom, requires people to sell at bottom.
It's not more complex than that.
And nothing is a good investment by its nature.
It's gold nor silver nor anything that determines profit or loss, it's the price at which you buy and sell.
Which CBs are "they"?
Metals getting monkey hammered!
Is it a sign of a 1000+ pt drop in the DOW today?
They always seem to go together.
Is it a sign of a 1000+ pt drop in the DOW today?
They always seem to go together.
Almost 1300 down! No one could have seen it coming! Simply unprecedented they will say.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
What does that matter?
ALL central banks exist to fight speculators.
And they cooperate in that. If speculators buy Swiss francs with dollars, causing the Swiss france to increase in value and the dollar to decrease in value, and it leads to outside their allowed exchange range (snake in the tunnel) the Swiss CB sell Swiss francs for dollars, devaluing the Swiss franc, and the Fed buys dollars with Swiss francs, increasing value of the dollar - the opposite direction of what speculators did. "Currency swaps".
The Swiss CB had periods of pegging the Swiss Franc to the dollar, and to the euro.
Bretton Woods blabla after WW2 wasn't just about gold, it was also about CB cooperation.
This of course demotivates speculants, and byebye those pesky market correctors.
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
Yet, a price drops due to people selling.
Grabbing profit or cutting losses short, and then, near what will turn out to be the bottom, disappointed, sell at that bottom, to people buying there.
Financial news often starts to talk about bears when 70% of the bear already passed.
And starts to talk about bulls when 70% of the bull already passed.
That's no stupidity, that's because sellers at a top requires buyer at the top, and buyers at the bottom require sellers at the bottom.
The more (in money) the better, because then the price changes slower, allowing big positions to be sold near the top and big positions to be bought near the bottom.
Last edited:
Cut rates! Cut rates! Its the only way to save the world!!
Pirocco
Well-Known Member
What you name "premise" here, is not "mine", it's data from gold.org that shows annual net purchases or sales.
You can create a free account, after which they show that, and other data.
I created an account in 2011.
They show data from 1997 onwards.
Worth noting: data can get revised in later years. Due to CB's trading but publishing only years later.
This was the data I accumulated in 2018:
1997 326 $330.98
1998 363 $294.24
1999 477 $278.88
2000 479 $279.11
2001 520 $271.04
2002 547 $309.73
2003 620 $363.38
2004 479 $409.72
2005 663 $444.74
2006 365 $603.46
2007 484 $695.39
2008 235 $871.96
2009 34 $972.35
>>> 5592 tonnes gold sold over the period 1997-2009
2010 -77 > -79.2(2016Q4) $1224.53
2011 -455 > -480.8(2016Q4) $1571.52
2012 -544.1 > -569.3(2016Q4) $1668.98
2013 -386.6(2014Q1) > -409.3(2014Q2) > -625.5 (2015Q1) > -623.8(2016Q4) $1411.23
2014 -477.2(2014Q4) > -588.0(2015Q1) > -590.5 (2015Q2) > -583.9 (2015Q4) $1211.71
2015 -588.4 (2015Q4) > -566.3 (2016Q1) > -576.5(2016Q4) $1160.06
2016 -383.6 > -389.8 $1250.74
2017 -371.4 > -374.8 (2019Q1) $1257.12
2018 -651.5
>>> 3674.7 tonnes gold bought over the period 2010-2017
Those lines <year> with several figures tonnes purchased, separated by > marks, list the revisions.
"2014Q1" refers to a gold.org quarterly report, where the revision appeared.
Yet, you're stuck in some denial mode, your choice...
Last edited:
I'd be backing up the truck right now but I've been off work for the last 5 months for winter.
We just started back this week but the checks aren't coming fast enough!! Hopefully it stays low for awhile.
Better get you some!
We just started back this week but the checks aren't coming fast enough!! Hopefully it stays low for awhile.
Better get you some!