Gold at ATH.....what do your tea leaves say?

The tea leaves have spoken, the price of gold (currently $3825/oz $AUD) is:

  • In bubble territory - a correction is imminent, but buying the dip is a good idea.

    Votes: 1 6.3%

  • Overvalued - its time to start selling and continue doing so. Bear market on the horizon.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Plateauing - minimal movement expected from here on.

    Votes: 3 18.8%

  • Undervalued - This is a great buying opportunity.

    Votes: 5 31.3%

  • I dont drink tea.

    Votes: 7 43.8%
  • Total voters
    16
  • Poll closed .
I told you I'm interested in price discovery not pissing contests.

Yes, when price falls and open interest declines that's considered bearish.

Hence my surprise.
 
And as far as as the Open Interest/price goes, the overall trend during 2024 was for both to be rising up to the peak in Oct 2024, then the overall trend has been declining. On the shorter term there is going to be variability in the direction of both.

Screenshot 2025-01-09 at 11.00.13 am.png
 
I heard Andy Schectman say tonight that 2024 was the third biggest gold buying year for central banks in the last 100 years.
Led by Turkey, Poland and others that I can't recall.
 
There it is folks, we have just broken through:
4300.png
 
If the USD can close below 109.085 on a down candle, then I'd be fairly convinced that the high has been made.

Other factors are supporting this, but I'm waiting for a insititutional reversal to take place. Either way, given how strong gold has been even in the face of a higher dollar, I would imagine a lower dollar will spool the price A LOT higher. Possibly marking the start of the gold "Bitcoin run" ;)
 
IPDA said:
Possibly marking the start of the gold "Bitcoin run" ;)
Click to expand...

Trying to stay level-headed, but I reckon this is a genuine possibility. Gold's climb in the face of strong US dollar has been remarkable. What happens if USD retreats?

Obviously, the higher odds are on a gold price pullback that is long overdue (IMO)..... but you never know.

What do your tea leaves say? :p
 
The last 5 years has shown the dxy/gold correlation is mostly a fantasy as they are less and less correlated.
The diversion is part of the unraveling now.
 
mybullion.com.au said:
Trying to stay level-headed, but I reckon this is a genuine possibility. Gold's climb in the face of strong US dollar has been remarkable. What happens if USD retreats?

Obviously, the higher odds are on a gold price pullback that is long overdue (IMO)..... but you never know.

What do your tea leaves say? :p
Click to expand...

My tea leaves scream a bullish gold price, and a potentially unwinding DXY. They used to be a good measure of intermarket analysis between the two assets, but the fact that they've cracked correlation indicates a huge accumulation / distribution is underway. Remember: When generally symmetrical markets crack correlation, manipulation is occurring.

Given positioning on other asset classes (i.e., bonds, crypto, foreign currencies, and most importantly OIL), I am fairly firm on a stagflation narrative moving forward.
 
In a decade or so these little consolidations will be blips on the screen.
What looks like bearish pullbacks will only be part of a much bigger bull pattern.
 
"China's actual imports of gold far exceed publicly data."

I'm not knocking his English by any means but what is he saying there exactly?
Our official numbers might not be accurate?
 
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