Midnight to 6am - Overnight Spot Watchers Spot...
- Thread starter Turk
- Start date
I just said fuckit and bought more platy kooks
I've been mulling over buying a couple platinum ounces. Seems it's pretty cheap right now eh.
just a change to be honest.. stacking fatigue has been setting in of late
Stacking fatigue is a new one to me! Haha sounds like it could be TERMINAL!
Big $$bags heartastack I knew it. Out there buying up all the kilos and 100 ozers.
It probably would get boring with all that cash to play with.
It probably would get boring with all that cash to play with.
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Hah! Nah I’m back on the meat market and tail costs money. It’s a hot market right now too, maybe you could pass on some of your blue pills yakka as you clearly aren’t using them. I’m not the one out here selling my sovs for adult diapers.
TBH if physical palladium were more available / traded / or spreads were not so bad.. id probably consider this a sign:
likewise silver looking like people are going short hard against the trend...
IMO somethings gonna give here in a squeeze...
all that money short across the board on metals.. wonder what they have up their sleave to buy back with besides a printing press...
or... a printing press will do...
and platinum is just as suspicious.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/nymex_platinum_futures_managed_money_short_positions
https://www.kitco.com/Platinum-price-today-USA/
daily chart can do it.
imo. this is a Head and shoulders pattern forming directly related to open short positions.
they are "drawing" the relative chat pattern in attempt to trigger pattern recognition (prob targeting AI and strategic stop loss levels)
problem is.. if they cant hold the shorts (and some people will cover while others lose....)
i cant see a short covering scenario in there that doesn't result in a price rise.
likewise silver looking like people are going short hard against the trend...
IMO somethings gonna give here in a squeeze...
all that money short across the board on metals.. wonder what they have up their sleave to buy back with besides a printing press...
or... a printing press will do...
and platinum is just as suspicious.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/nymex_platinum_futures_managed_money_short_positions
https://www.kitco.com/Platinum-price-today-USA/
daily chart can do it.
imo. this is a Head and shoulders pattern forming directly related to open short positions.
they are "drawing" the relative chat pattern in attempt to trigger pattern recognition (prob targeting AI and strategic stop loss levels)
problem is.. if they cant hold the shorts (and some people will cover while others lose....)
i cant see a short covering scenario in there that doesn't result in a price rise.
Even the chart patterns are only in play until they aren't haha. It's happening alot these days in clown world but it sure it crazy to watch.
i just ordered a bunch of Mexican silver and some old 8 Reales last night but if spot gets crushed I'll buy more.
We've already had the triple top in gold so the 4th should be the breakout.
i just ordered a bunch of Mexican silver and some old 8 Reales last night but if spot gets crushed I'll buy more.
We've already had the triple top in gold so the 4th should be the breakout.
Managed to find a pic of heartastack (right ) with shiney...
I guess some people are just not built for stacking anything heavier than cryptos, no wonder fatigue is experienced.
I guess some people are just not built for stacking anything heavier than cryptos, no wonder fatigue is experienced.
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Didn’t see your contribution to the donation hat. ‘Mr. Brown’ was still available, ya freeloader with fat stacks, great look too.
Bouncing off support it's make or break time right now.
If this level fails then its back to the drawing board for the PMs and I'd officially be depressed.
Might even shave my eyebrows off.
If this level fails then its back to the drawing board for the PMs and I'd officially be depressed.
Might even shave my eyebrows off.
did a bit more DYODD and composited the graphs for each major metal:
purple number at top is the is the total combined open interest
Some of the charts (Like gold) where the green floor is floating higher is due to the last 5 years levels not coming anywhere close to the 0 level...
ive had to manually scale the graphics in the overlays also so that the relative volumes of short and long were properly represented.
IMO. the open Shorts for palladium being so high might be due to the forecast of a .2Moz deficits in palladium this year but the expectation that next year will have a 0.3Moz surplus....
https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...arket-swing-surplus-2024-nornickel-2023-05-31
the switching of palladium out for platinum in future Catalytic designs expecting to be an ongoing trend... as well as EV takeover from combustion globally.
if that pans out, then the short holders are speculating on selling NOW to buy back when the surplus hits... buffering that interim period.
they cant EXIT the position without buying BACK though.
the problem is volume.
https://www.reuters.com/article/platinum-palladium-metals-focus-idUSKBN2X610Z
ANNUAL PALLADIUM SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 oz)*
2022 - 2023F - %change
SUPPLY
Mine Production 6,487 6,252 -4%
Scrap 2,793 2,775 -1%
TOTAL SUPPLY 9,280 9,027 -3%
DEMAND
Autocatalyst 8,061 8,091 0%
Jewellery 224 225 0%
Industrial 1,524 1,418 -7%
Retail investment 18 1 -93%
TOTAL DEMAND 9,826 9,735 -1%
Physical Surplus/Deficit -547 -707
Above-Ground Stocks
2022 - 2023F - %change
12,345 - 11,637 -6%
0.3Mox is.. 300 in the above ground stocks total figure.
total above ground stocks then, are thus in the range of 1 years of Mine + recycling supply.
???? What happens if people DONT buy new cars and recycle Cats from the old ones produced in the last 7 years? (scrap figures)
Im assuming that the recycling has to actually COME. from somewhere...
those nymex contracts are 100oz.. comprising ~1,210 Moz of shorts. (10% of all above ground palladium or ~20% of Mine production)
i wonder if that can really grow and be sustained over a year or 2 without something happening in Russia or Africa like power outages in El Nino that impact production.
sure, we all buy new electric cars and dont need to make any more carbon based ones right....
estimates are 40-50% of new car sales as electric by 2030
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume...uture-the-transition-to-electric-vehicles.htm
That would half the demand alone, not taking into account the composition changeup of the converters themselves..
question is... at what price point do people consider a PM worthless? or.. exit a position to seek gains elsewhere?,
especially one that still has use for hydrogen storage and electrical use?
The shorts there represent 60% of the open interest also.
purple number at top is the is the total combined open interest
Some of the charts (Like gold) where the green floor is floating higher is due to the last 5 years levels not coming anywhere close to the 0 level...
ive had to manually scale the graphics in the overlays also so that the relative volumes of short and long were properly represented.
IMO. the open Shorts for palladium being so high might be due to the forecast of a .2Moz deficits in palladium this year but the expectation that next year will have a 0.3Moz surplus....
https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...arket-swing-surplus-2024-nornickel-2023-05-31
the switching of palladium out for platinum in future Catalytic designs expecting to be an ongoing trend... as well as EV takeover from combustion globally.
if that pans out, then the short holders are speculating on selling NOW to buy back when the surplus hits... buffering that interim period.
they cant EXIT the position without buying BACK though.
the problem is volume.
https://www.reuters.com/article/platinum-palladium-metals-focus-idUSKBN2X610Z
ANNUAL PALLADIUM SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 oz)*
2022 - 2023F - %change
SUPPLY
Mine Production 6,487 6,252 -4%
Scrap 2,793 2,775 -1%
TOTAL SUPPLY 9,280 9,027 -3%
DEMAND
Autocatalyst 8,061 8,091 0%
Jewellery 224 225 0%
Industrial 1,524 1,418 -7%
Retail investment 18 1 -93%
TOTAL DEMAND 9,826 9,735 -1%
Physical Surplus/Deficit -547 -707
Above-Ground Stocks
2022 - 2023F - %change
12,345 - 11,637 -6%
0.3Mox is.. 300 in the above ground stocks total figure.
total above ground stocks then, are thus in the range of 1 years of Mine + recycling supply.
???? What happens if people DONT buy new cars and recycle Cats from the old ones produced in the last 7 years? (scrap figures)
Im assuming that the recycling has to actually COME. from somewhere...
those nymex contracts are 100oz.. comprising ~1,210 Moz of shorts. (10% of all above ground palladium or ~20% of Mine production)
i wonder if that can really grow and be sustained over a year or 2 without something happening in Russia or Africa like power outages in El Nino that impact production.
sure, we all buy new electric cars and dont need to make any more carbon based ones right....
estimates are 40-50% of new car sales as electric by 2030
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume...uture-the-transition-to-electric-vehicles.htm
That would half the demand alone, not taking into account the composition changeup of the converters themselves..
question is... at what price point do people consider a PM worthless? or.. exit a position to seek gains elsewhere?,
especially one that still has use for hydrogen storage and electrical use?
The shorts there represent 60% of the open interest also.
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did a bit more DYODD and composited the graphs for each major metal:
View attachment 82498
purple number at top is the is the total combined open interest
Some of the charts (Like gold) where the green floor is floating higher is due to the last 5 years levels not coming anywhere close to the 0 level...
ive had to manually scale the graphics in the overlays also so that the relative volumes of short and long were properly represented.
IMO. the open Shorts for palladium being so high might be due to the forecast of a .2Moz deficits in palladium this year but the expectation that next year will have a 0.3Moz surplus....
https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...arket-swing-surplus-2024-nornickel-2023-05-31
the switching of palladium out for platinum in future Catalytic designs expecting to be an ongoing trend... as well as EV takeover from combustion globally.
if that pans out, then the short holders are speculating on selling NOW to buy back when the surplus hits... buffering that interim period.
they cant EXIT the position without buying BACK though.
the problem is volume.
https://www.reuters.com/article/platinum-palladium-metals-focus-idUSKBN2X610Z
ANNUAL PALLADIUM SUPPLY/DEMAND (‘000 oz)*
2022 - 2023F - %change
SUPPLY
Mine Production 6,487 6,252 -4%
Scrap 2,793 2,775 -1%
TOTAL SUPPLY 9,280 9,027 -3%
DEMAND
Autocatalyst 8,061 8,091 0%
Jewellery 224 225 0%
Industrial 1,524 1,418 -7%
Retail investment 18 1 -93%
TOTAL DEMAND 9,826 9,735 -1%
Physical Surplus/Deficit -547 -707
Above-Ground Stocks
2022 - 2023F - %change
12,345 - 11,637 -6%
0.3Mox is.. 300 in the above ground stocks total figure.
total above ground stocks then, are thus in the range of 1 years of Mine + recycling supply.
???? What happens if people DONT buy new cars and recycle Cats from the old ones produced in the last 7 years? (scrap figures)
Im assuming that the recycling has to actually COME. from somewhere...
those nymex contracts are 100oz.. comprising ~1,210 Moz of shorts. (10% of all above ground palladium or ~20% of Mine production)
i wonder if that can really grow and be sustained over a year or 2 without something happening in Russia or Africa like power outages in El Nino that impact production.
sure, we all buy new electric cars and dont need to make any more carbon based ones right....
estimates are 40-50% of new car sales as electric by 2030
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume...uture-the-transition-to-electric-vehicles.htm
That would half the demand alone, not taking into account the composition changeup of the converters themselves..
question is... at what price point do people consider a PM worthless? or.. exit a position to seek gains elsewhere?,
especially one that still has use for hydrogen storage and electrical use?
The shorts there represent 60% of the open interest also.
A good read but if you’re doing that much DD it’d be good to know what specific plays you had in mind
They should allow trading on the weekends. It's so dang boring and I'm stuck in Telluride working.
The shineys need to hold!
The shineys need to hold!
I don't think it will go below $22.
^^^
is this a bet?!
is this a bet?!
Are we betting eyebrows?
I have some kitty at home but not with me. I'm in Telluride working and enjoying the views.
How bouts that Silva? Whoohoo
How bouts that Silva? Whoohoo
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