scott_reeve
Active Member
Don't think a dedicated lithium thread on here yet, or cobalt or rare earths.
I know a bunch of people are complete believers of the 'EV' revolution, claiming it will be disruptive and like to point to EV car sales predictions etc.
I'm more interested in trading these sectors when they are hot, and be out of them when they are cold (like more recently). Come next GFC-style crash, new car sales will plummet, empty airports will be filled once more with unsold cars and lithium, cobalt, rare earths sectors will be treated like every other commodity on the market.
Anyhow, I have been following a number of ETFs closely last few months which has helped see where headwinds may come for ASX EV-commodity stocks.
Global X Lithium ETF (LIT) has been a good gauge on the direction of ASX lithium stocks. The ETF includes holdings in GXY, PLS, ORE, NMT, AJM, LIT. The ETF owns between 2.4 to 3.3% of total listed ordinary shares of these companies.
19 Jan chart:
The large bearish engulfing candle on large volume (that engulfed the previous few days), followed by a large gap down was a big early warning sign more pain was to come.
4 Feb chart:
A number of Support levels broken. Volumes increasing as ETF price falls lower.
REMX:
4 Feb chart:
REMX ETF falling, but still in upward channel for the moment.
* ASX stocks have largest weighting on ETF (27.7%).
* ASX stocks in ETF with their portions of total: ILU 6.42%, PLS 6.05%, LYC 5.33%, GXY 5.06%, ORE 4.86%.
Cobalt prices remain quite robust for the moment at around US$81,000 tonne:
In the end, like other previous commodity booms, most ASX lithium, rare earth, cobalt stocks will never get into production.
I know a bunch of people are complete believers of the 'EV' revolution, claiming it will be disruptive and like to point to EV car sales predictions etc.
I'm more interested in trading these sectors when they are hot, and be out of them when they are cold (like more recently). Come next GFC-style crash, new car sales will plummet, empty airports will be filled once more with unsold cars and lithium, cobalt, rare earths sectors will be treated like every other commodity on the market.
Anyhow, I have been following a number of ETFs closely last few months which has helped see where headwinds may come for ASX EV-commodity stocks.
Global X Lithium ETF (LIT) has been a good gauge on the direction of ASX lithium stocks. The ETF includes holdings in GXY, PLS, ORE, NMT, AJM, LIT. The ETF owns between 2.4 to 3.3% of total listed ordinary shares of these companies.
19 Jan chart:
The large bearish engulfing candle on large volume (that engulfed the previous few days), followed by a large gap down was a big early warning sign more pain was to come.
4 Feb chart:
A number of Support levels broken. Volumes increasing as ETF price falls lower.
REMX:
4 Feb chart:
REMX ETF falling, but still in upward channel for the moment.
* ASX stocks have largest weighting on ETF (27.7%).
* ASX stocks in ETF with their portions of total: ILU 6.42%, PLS 6.05%, LYC 5.33%, GXY 5.06%, ORE 4.86%.
Cobalt prices remain quite robust for the moment at around US$81,000 tonne:
In the end, like other previous commodity booms, most ASX lithium, rare earth, cobalt stocks will never get into production.
. & missed the rocket.
