Double.
2020 Collapse
- Thread starter TreasureHunter
- Start date
Hunger will hit poorer countries as wealthier countries can afford to buy up all the grains. Countries in Africa, Middle East, the belt and road countries will be hit. Pd will be replaced with Pt. Plenty of pt in warehouses. I'm sure the West will pass emergency legislation to allow pt to be used instead of pd. This is only a regulatory issue. As for silver, why? 
Perhaps now is a good time to buy up all those "cheap electronics", palladium and silver shortage to come soon!
Hunger soon?
Nevertheless, the prices will keep rising on oils, fertilizers and grain/crops... of course, that will propagate to the rest of the food production system, thus to the entire economy.
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
I've previously said that the purpose of this war is to conquer Europe. Germany finally realises it. Yes, it's a insane idea, but to an insane person, it's not insane.
So what does Europe do? Give Russia Ukraine hoping that it will stop?
No, that's the worst thing to do because it only proves that Europe is weak and can be "eaten" and the war will really evolve into WWIII.
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TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
"Fearless" is not necessarily a quality. Fear might be a sign of wisdom.
A peace plan is needed, the "German warmachine" can only make world war. The Germans and Russians are both notorious for starting (and ending) world wars...
I can't believe how stupid Putin can behave. I would never have imagined that they are indeed capable of invading. This is very very bad.
Oil on the fire is the last thing we need right now. They should get a peace plan together and push both sides to agree on something, anything - so long as lives are saved.
The Germans, the Dutch, the French, the Brittocks, the Chechens, the Ruskies and the Ukrainians are all pouring oil on fire. Well, at least the Ukraine can't do much besides defending itself (understandable).
The UN should get involved in some humanitarian-peace deal and the war must be stopped.
I am worried that this madness could spread. And then, it's World War 3.
STOP THE WAR
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
I've previously said that the purpose of this war is to conquer Europe. Germany finally realises it. Yes, it's a insane idea, but to an insane person, it's not insane.
So what does Europe do? Give Russia Ukraine hoping that it will stop? No, that's the worst thing to do because it only proves that Europe can be "eaten" and the war will really evolve into WWIII.
I hope that does not happen. Let's hope the Russians are not that stupid. Or, are they?
Meanwhile, the rest of Europe will suffer tremendously due to the economic crises. Euro losing ground, chip shortage, food crisis. EVERYTHING CRISIS.
Putin is worse than I imagined. But too bad that the west has a bunch of incompetent leaders.
I hope Russia doesn't dare touch the nearby NATO states. This is very dangerous. If they go beyond Ukraine, it's World War 3.
Let's hope for the best!
I believe it will be resolved quickly within 2 months. There may seem to be a time when nukes are going to fly, but I doubt the General is interested in Kamikaze and bringing his own family to hell.
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
I believe it will be resolved quickly within 2 months. There may seem to be a time when nukes are going to fly, but I doubt the General is interested in Kamikaze and bringing his own family to hell.
I hope they will stop or at least sign an armistice and then later make an international peace deal. This is disgusting.
I am deeply sorry for all the victims on all sides.
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
Everyone holding investments of any kind.... Please note what we are facing be it Evergrande, Inflation or Ukraine, it is a small pothole in the scheme of things compared to Covid 2020 or financial crises of 2008. So dont go overboard.
Central Banks around the world will do what is required to keep the markets going.
Even Evergrande Collapse hyperbole in media forget that this is direct result of Chinese government intervention, Chinese government have done the numbers and know the likely outcome and have plans. Of course some will get hurt, but others will make money from Evergrande turmoil.
If I had few billion I can spare for 5 years and was allowed, I would buy some premium evergrande developments in Beijing and Shanghai at 50% off lol and tripple or quadrupple my money!
Unlike how Greensill Capital collapsed into insolvency with real idioctic borrowing/lending practice, Evergrande default saga is direct result of borrowing rule changes to Chinese property sector, had any other government did it to their local market it would have had the same result to that market.
Key takeaway is Evergrande default occured NOT because Evergrande had a lot of borrowing, it occurred because it was blocked from all sources of borrowings/loans.
Some sectors or stocks will get hammered but market will continue with only some disruptions.....
META/Facebook down 40% and what will happen to BNPL in 2022/2023 is horror story yet to unfold but other stocks and sectors are increasing as the index is down 10% or so.
If you are into BNPL look at individual stock and consider what will happen, some will survive and even thrive while some the decimation is only starting!
Afterpay with block no longer need to source capital. Block has deposits from business users on 0% interest account and Afterpay charging sub 3% to merchants and making profit is likely. 3% margin is a wet dream for financial servcies.
Z1P have to borrow money in the open market to fund mircro lending, so when commercial loans that are now 4% to 6% becomes 7% to 10% (ie official rate is basically 0% you pay 4% mortgage) how much will Z1P have to charge merchants to make money.
The world is changing Z1P will not be able to charge Merchants 10 to 13% when their cost of cash/capital is 7% to 10%, especially when Afterpay/Block, Paypal and every credit card provider is charging merchants sub 3% for the same service and it is already on the merchants website.
Recessions and Turmoil in the market is when you make money.
Central Banks around the world will do what is required to keep the markets going.
Even Evergrande Collapse hyperbole in media forget that this is direct result of Chinese government intervention, Chinese government have done the numbers and know the likely outcome and have plans. Of course some will get hurt, but others will make money from Evergrande turmoil.
If I had few billion I can spare for 5 years and was allowed, I would buy some premium evergrande developments in Beijing and Shanghai at 50% off lol and tripple or quadrupple my money!
Unlike how Greensill Capital collapsed into insolvency with real idioctic borrowing/lending practice, Evergrande default saga is direct result of borrowing rule changes to Chinese property sector, had any other government did it to their local market it would have had the same result to that market.
Key takeaway is Evergrande default occured NOT because Evergrande had a lot of borrowing, it occurred because it was blocked from all sources of borrowings/loans.
Some sectors or stocks will get hammered but market will continue with only some disruptions.....
META/Facebook down 40% and what will happen to BNPL in 2022/2023 is horror story yet to unfold but other stocks and sectors are increasing as the index is down 10% or so.
If you are into BNPL look at individual stock and consider what will happen, some will survive and even thrive while some the decimation is only starting!
Afterpay with block no longer need to source capital. Block has deposits from business users on 0% interest account and Afterpay charging sub 3% to merchants and making profit is likely. 3% margin is a wet dream for financial servcies.
Z1P have to borrow money in the open market to fund mircro lending, so when commercial loans that are now 4% to 6% becomes 7% to 10% (ie official rate is basically 0% you pay 4% mortgage) how much will Z1P have to charge merchants to make money.
The world is changing Z1P will not be able to charge Merchants 10 to 13% when their cost of cash/capital is 7% to 10%, especially when Afterpay/Block, Paypal and every credit card provider is charging merchants sub 3% for the same service and it is already on the merchants website.
Recessions and Turmoil in the market is when you make money.
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TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
The big question now for the average person is: what to put your tiny savings in?
(considering the Ukraine-Russia war undergoing and we're also struggling with inflation)
1. gold?
2. some safe haven currency? USD probably better than EUR right now, GBP is already shaking, but perhaps CHF is better
3. cryptos? (if so, which one? they went down and might go down to zero...)
4. ...anything else?
(considering the Ukraine-Russia war undergoing and we're also struggling with inflation)
1. gold?
2. some safe haven currency? USD probably better than EUR right now, GBP is already shaking, but perhaps CHF is better
3. cryptos? (if so, which one? they went down and might go down to zero...)
4. ...anything else?
Seriously mate asking the same questions over and over again is just a waste of forum space. They've been answered dozens of times previously, just read what other members have written. Your endless posts repetitive posts are tedious.
I'll start deleting them if it continues.
Gold only if you are trading... if you are BUY but never sell what's the point of buying when its moving up, wait and buy it lower after the turmoil, if you are diamond hands LT.
SAY Gold goes to 2600 usd (look back to Iraq invasion) and you buy now at $1900 to $2300 in 2022/3 BUT IF YOU NEVER SELL and you know it is likely come back down to near $2000 after the turmoil... you are averaging up your gold holding cost.
If you are LT holder, than you should be buying gold when no one wants gold not competeing with traders and bad news cycle buyers.
But if you are a trader (I am an opportunistic trader) buying at $1900 sell at $2X00 than waiting for the cycle to repeat and go for it again. Than it is a good bet. (However this cycle I am not looking at gold, see below)
What is guaranteed to sky-rocket in production to 2025 and continue to rise to 2030 than continue to 2040, more and even more EV cars. And what is required to make 20, 30, 50, 70 million EV cars a year from 6 million made last year.
Battery materials stocks have taken a BATH in the past weeks and now at firesale prices....
Much like when oil was negative dollars..... it was a time to buy not to sell oil stocks.
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Go on, give us a few stock picks!
They are posted elsewhere in this very same thread.
The problem is that the valuable posts are being lost in the flood of crap that is spewing forth from member’s keyboards.
I’m going to start deleting posts that don’t add any value or meaning.
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Sorry to derail this amazing, informative and accurate thread. Almost forgot it was 2022!