Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

Where do you think we are in the crypto bubble?

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These drops sre normal.

As long as the central banks are printing and issuing record debt cryptos will do well, until the big sell off happens.
 
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50 and 200 day moving averages

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^
I think something might happen when the two lines cross on the charts. When 50 and 200 DMA lines cross, then that signifies a "Death Cross".

Correct?

If so, then we could see a massive sell-off. Probably down to 28-30 k?
 
^ back on the 19 June it happened, a month later the price dropped to about $30K and then we saw the next rally.
 
the cross is yet to due, but RSI 30 is possible to be at oversold like back in May again
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Ok, just guessing then? ;)
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as you can see the prices chart, they never even gap, so its very unlikely 3 std evi away from the last prices, so the possibility of 50 days and 200 days is way far too remote for price to be above the 50 day one day, and price to be below the 200 day average the next day... there is never such a movement it the entire history. there is no island.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
You can’t possibly know that
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You can never know. And I remember back in the past we used to test various DMA lines, but it can get very complicated. And, many people confuse the Death Cross with the Golden Cross.

I think it is going to get either very bearish or very bullish soon.

Probably the big correction will have been finalized in December and we can see bullish uptrend in January. The question now is: when will we get close to the bottom?

The best time to get in is to pick the moments BEFORE the bottom, because it is impossible to pick the bottom.
By the time analysts start communicating "it has reached the bottom", it's already too late, it'll already be on an uptrend.

So... when, where could the bottom be? :D

(I am amazed to see Ethereum hold on so so well. It rebounds every time very well, while almost all other cryptos tend to go down.
Also interesting: did you see Terra's chart? It is one of very few cryptos that skyrocketed while almost the entire market went down with Bitcoin.)
 
the exact point of bottom, when it is being tied to the human desperation of giving up and feeling better after taking that loss, most of the the time of 43-47%. the agony is killing me, ok ok I give up and sell. that is the bottom of your heart... lol
by using that chart can never get you, as it is created from the human feeling
loves that psychology, how the top and bottom created, they usually the last point and very small in volume.
the last person to buy form the bottom, when the next person can never get again...the 0.01
... its getting too long
 
So, the entire crypto market could drop/collapse with the stock market crash, but what if cryptos crash BEFORE?

Will cryptos crash again if the stock market collapses?

Currently we are seeing a "downward spiral" and strongly negative sentiment (and news) regarding the crypto market. Probably this will continue on.

So, cryptos are correcting, but the stock market crash is still only a "scare story", a "prediction" nowhere to be seen.

Could it be that cryptos will correct now and skyrocket next year? Then crash again together with the stock market crash?


Please share you thoughts on the crypto-stock market correlation, or whether you think the crypto market could survive separately from the stock market and forex market.
 
At the risk of repeating myself like a cockatoo, yes, the cryptos could crash big time well before the stock market does.

The stock market does have the "Plunge Protection Team" ready to step in and reverse any steep selloffs, which is something the cryptos markets lack.

And when the ruling elites are finally ready to pull the plug and crash the stock markets, then cryptos will fall in unison regardless of whether they had already crashed
previously or not.

And since this is a crypto thread, maybe one of you experts on here can explain to me where are all the new players going to come from to propel the price of
Bitcoin into the $100k's, or even $1 million price range as some of you are fantasizing?

Every Ponzi scheme needs a continuous flow of new investors to keep the scam going and to pay a profit to the earlier investors who wish to cash out.

For Bitcoin to get above $100k and consolidate there would require a huge amount of new suckers to enter the game, and that is something I am not seeing happening,
if anything it seems to be going in the opposite direction, hence the stagnation in the prices.

Buying and holding by the true believers or desperados is not going to propel cryptos into the stratosphere from here on.
 
^
My take on "Bitcoin to 100 k" and "crypto to the Moon" wishful thinking and permabulls like Michael Saylor and Raoul Pal (the latter being a bit more reserved, but Michael Saylor is the Peter Schiff of the crypto world):

1. the rate of adoption can indeed push Bitcoin higher, but only if there is also demand for it on the markets: they must constantly trade it at higher and higher prices (this is true for Ethereum and the rest), but so far we've seen humps and bumps, it keeps dropping down on profit taking
2. I just don't see the wealth-preservation in Bitcoin, it's a casino chip rather, traded and sold-off for profits, id does not preserve value and is tremendously risky
3. just like with gold, once Bitcoin (or Ethereum or etc.) reaches a HIGH price, you must find a "fool" to buy it, but after a while people keep looking at each other asking "who's the next new fool to sell to", once it is too expensive, APPETITE DROPS
4. the entire crypto market is atomized: more and more coins that are more and more confusing and harder to understand keep appearing and they "steal the spotlight" of the other coins
5. there are no brakes, Bitcoin and Ethereum can go to 1 cent, there is NOTHING to stop any collapse, because the entire chaotic market has a very vulnerable structure (there are no laws, limits to anything), so a group of major players could simply short-sell the entire market (this would be impossible on the forex market),
so regardless how high Bitcoin goes, IT FLOATS, THERE IS NOTHING that holds these cryptos at a decent level (there is no economy, no central bank, NOTHING behind them, these are casino chips!)
 
hardyakkagold said:
nd since this is a crypto thread, maybe one of you experts on here can explain to me where are all the new players going to come from to propel the price of
Bitcoin into the $100k's, or even $1 million price range as some of you are fantasizing?
Click to expand...

Increasing retail and institutional investment. The same ones that gold bulls fantasise about pushing silver and gold prices to da moon.

hardyakkagold said:
Buying and holding by the true believers or desperados is not going to propel cryptos into the stratosphere from here on.
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Why not? It's a demand v supply scenario. Every BTC or Ether in existence doesn't have to be available for sale all the time for prices to rise. All that is required is for buyers willing to pay higher prices on an increasingly scarce commodity of available tokens. The more HODLers, the higher the prices go.
 
hardyakkagold said:
At the risk of repeating myself like a cockatoo, yes, the cryptos could crash big time well before the stock market does.

The stock market does have the "Plunge Protection Team" ready to step in and reverse any steep selloffs, which is something the cryptos markets lack.

And when the ruling elites are finally ready to pull the plug and crash the stock markets, then cryptos will fall in unison regardless of whether they had already crashed
previously or not.

And since this is a crypto thread, maybe one of you experts on here can explain to me where are all the new players going to come from to propel the price of
Bitcoin into the $100k's, or even $1 million price range as some of you are fantasizing?

Every Ponzi scheme needs a continuous flow of new investors to keep the scam going and to pay a profit to the earlier investors who wish to cash out.

For Bitcoin to get above $100k and consolidate there would require a huge amount of new suckers to enter the game, and that is something I am not seeing happening,
if anything it seems to be going in the opposite direction, hence the stagnation in the prices.

Buying and holding by the true believers or desperados is not going to propel cryptos into the stratosphere from here on.
Click to expand...
I think the currency crises being perpetuated in many countries like Lebanon and Turkey right now will push more cannon fodder into crypto
 
heartastack said:
that cluster of volume to the left are the holders that will panic @ under 40
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Recent data suggests that short term holders have been flushed out of the market, by the big event in May when the price fell to sub-$40K and a series of smaller events since.

Frame-174-1.png

Source: the-week-onchain-week-50-2021

Long term HODLers at ATH.

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I'm thinking that the data in the above examples suggests that those large volumes are a combination of long term HODLers and realised losses. The realised losses are just an historical event now and have ceased to play any role in the market, long term HODLers are still playing their role in the market as support.
 
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