2020 Collapse
- Thread starter TreasureHunter
- Start date
It seems that even the mainstream media is now reporting that interest rates will rise next year and not in 2023 as the globalist reserve banksters
would have you believe.
With CBA economists now predicting that rates will hike in November of next year here in Australia.
I still stand by my earlier postings that they will start jacking rates up in the middle of next year, so we all have exactly one year to start paying off loans
and transferring any variable interest loans to fixed interest while those rates are lower.
And remember you read it on here first, so stick that in your crack pipe and smoke it shiney, for suggesting that I make stuff up as I go along (like you do : )
would have you believe.
With CBA economists now predicting that rates will hike in November of next year here in Australia.
I still stand by my earlier postings that they will start jacking rates up in the middle of next year, so we all have exactly one year to start paying off loans
and transferring any variable interest loans to fixed interest while those rates are lower.
And remember you read it on here first, so stick that in your crack pipe and smoke it shiney, for suggesting that I make stuff up as I go along (like you do : )
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I thought I was on your ignore list?
16 months away? Mustn't have given their crystal ball as good a polish as Westpac which predicted a rate rise waaaay off in early 2023 or the ANZ in late 2023. Must've really squinted hard to see it though.
Psh.
US members would do well to note the New York Fed's President:
https://www.livemint.com/news/world...re-new-york-fed-president-11624373223828.html
Maximum employment is around the 4 - 5% unemployment rate I think in OZ, looking at the historical figures for the US it's probably a bit below 4%. Inflation at 2% and then to moderately exceed that (?) for some time? What? One quarter? 2 quarters? A year? 3 years? And by how much? The 2019 annual inflation rate was 2.29%, and only 4 of the last 10 years have seen inflation rates over 2%.
Currently the unemployment rate is 5.8% so it's basically got to halve and the current 12 month inflation rate is 4.99%, but those numbers are skewed of course in all directions by business contractions and expansions. But anyway, the unemployment and inflation figures would be good to keep an eye on because if Williams is to be believed, both boxes have to be ticked before the The Fed will even seriously consider rate hikes. Anything else reported in the media at the moment is just noise on the fringes.
I think we in Oz can also take something from that as our RBA has put forward similar guidance. Our unemployment rate is currently a nudge over 5% so we're not far off what they consider "full employment" but our inflation rate is just over 1%, so we've got a fair way to go there. I can't remember off the top of my head what Lowe has said their targeted core inflation rate is. If the present scenario continues then I'd hazard a guess that if rates actually do rise then the US will do it before we do.
That's my crystal ball gazing for the evening. And not a drop of alcohol has passed my lips.
https://www.livemint.com/news/world...re-new-york-fed-president-11624373223828.html
Maximum employment is around the 4 - 5% unemployment rate I think in OZ, looking at the historical figures for the US it's probably a bit below 4%. Inflation at 2% and then to moderately exceed that (?) for some time? What? One quarter? 2 quarters? A year? 3 years? And by how much? The 2019 annual inflation rate was 2.29%, and only 4 of the last 10 years have seen inflation rates over 2%.
Currently the unemployment rate is 5.8% so it's basically got to halve and the current 12 month inflation rate is 4.99%, but those numbers are skewed of course in all directions by business contractions and expansions. But anyway, the unemployment and inflation figures would be good to keep an eye on because if Williams is to be believed, both boxes have to be ticked before the The Fed will even seriously consider rate hikes. Anything else reported in the media at the moment is just noise on the fringes.
I think we in Oz can also take something from that as our RBA has put forward similar guidance. Our unemployment rate is currently a nudge over 5% so we're not far off what they consider "full employment" but our inflation rate is just over 1%, so we've got a fair way to go there. I can't remember off the top of my head what Lowe has said their targeted core inflation rate is. If the present scenario continues then I'd hazard a guess that if rates actually do rise then the US will do it before we do.
That's my crystal ball gazing for the evening. And not a drop of alcohol has passed my lips.
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
Inflation, hyperinflation is not happening, because (my take on this):
1) the Fed is actually using QE in order to create the adequate money-velocity, besides paying off debt with debt
(until money velocity is high, the "patient on drugs" is "high" as well, if they stop, hyperinflation could kick in)
2) QE and the USD's status (global reserve currency, petrodollar system) etc. ensures high demand of the USD
(these are very solid pylons on which the USD's strength is ensured on medium-term)
3) the printed money just piles up as debt, so eventually no-one will want it and/or they will have to do anything with it
(that will lead to hyperinflation)
4) in an absurd way, the Fed, thus the banks as well are forcing low interest rates
(instead, they should elevate them, just a bit, but that could launch the avalanche that might lead to hyperinflation)
I am wondering: what if the Fed launches a 2nd dollar for (them), the US, for the sake of internal US use and will simply leave the dollars we all know to the rest of the world to collapse.
(I don't actually know that could happen).
Some countries actually use 2 or more currencies, like Switzerland, for example.
1) the Fed is actually using QE in order to create the adequate money-velocity, besides paying off debt with debt
(until money velocity is high, the "patient on drugs" is "high" as well, if they stop, hyperinflation could kick in)
2) QE and the USD's status (global reserve currency, petrodollar system) etc. ensures high demand of the USD
(these are very solid pylons on which the USD's strength is ensured on medium-term)
3) the printed money just piles up as debt, so eventually no-one will want it and/or they will have to do anything with it
(that will lead to hyperinflation)
4) in an absurd way, the Fed, thus the banks as well are forcing low interest rates
(instead, they should elevate them, just a bit, but that could launch the avalanche that might lead to hyperinflation)
I am wondering: what if the Fed launches a 2nd dollar for (them), the US, for the sake of internal US use and will simply leave the dollars we all know to the rest of the world to collapse.
(I don't actually know that could happen).
Some countries actually use 2 or more currencies, like Switzerland, for example.
holdandown
Active Member
There's a money printing circus around the world today. It's an eventual race to the bottom. At some point - not just yet - the wheels may come off, the fiat may become increasingly worthless and it will become more and more difficult for the more powerful and militarised countries to keep control over the less advanced and militarised countries often serving as markets for their goods and as their raw material and energy suppliers.
After all, at what point does a third world country's leadership make the decision to stop trading something of value - raw materials, energy, agricultural produce etc - for worthless fiat?
How long can the larger powers keep exporting their debt to the third world in a system where they issue money at will?
I suspect the answers to those questions are more military in nature, and less economic.
There have been plenty of recent examples of what happens when such leaders either decide to ditch fiat in favour of something more commodity based, or, if leaders simply insisted on being paid a higher fiat price for commodities than what the first world leadership were willing to accept.
These episodes often end in mysterious airplane accidents, coups and apparent "popular uprisings".
After all, at what point does a third world country's leadership make the decision to stop trading something of value - raw materials, energy, agricultural produce etc - for worthless fiat?
How long can the larger powers keep exporting their debt to the third world in a system where they issue money at will?
I suspect the answers to those questions are more military in nature, and less economic.
There have been plenty of recent examples of what happens when such leaders either decide to ditch fiat in favour of something more commodity based, or, if leaders simply insisted on being paid a higher fiat price for commodities than what the first world leadership were willing to accept.
These episodes often end in mysterious airplane accidents, coups and apparent "popular uprisings".
Inflation has been occurring for awhile. Maybe not hyper mode but bubble mode for sure.
Bubbles of inflation caused by easy money. There are many bubbles right now.
Bubbles of inflation caused by easy money. There are many bubbles right now.
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
Including gold and cryptos.
But, according to Marc Faber, the perception that "people move from the dollar to Bitcoin and from the dollar to gold" is false. Because, Bitcoin and gold are both very small markets in comparison with the US dollar's market.
Uneducated Economist (vlogger) believes that the dollar will gain strength over time and for a while it will hold its strength. I'm of the thought that we are going to see a period of stronger dollar.
I'm still unsure whether inflation, deflation or stagflation will follow.
I would rather expect: inflation due to GDP growth towards the pandemic's end.
I think gold might be going really low this time. Not sure, just thinking.
Remember what happened in 2013?
Gold could crash to 1,500 $ at least, if this happens again.
In a worse situation we might see 1,200-1,300 $ again.
Remember its PAPER gold that might fall and it probably will when the markets crash and sell off, it doesnt say anything about physical. I doubt physical will drop much and definitely not to $1500. Physical will probably hold firm at a certain level and it will become unavailable below that.
Gold isnt in a bubble now, quite the opposite. And as for cryptos they have crashed and are going sideways now, up or down is everyone's guess and very volatile. I'm sitting ready to drop another thousand one of these days but I'm not trying to pick the bottom haha.
The dollar might have slight increases here and there like everything else that decreases slowly but the long term trend is DOWN. Dont expect any significant gains in the dollar and probably will go much lower.
My opinion of course.
Eventually it will play out and we will see what happens but I seriously doubt we'll ever see phusical gold at 1300 usd again.
Gold isnt in a bubble now, quite the opposite. And as for cryptos they have crashed and are going sideways now, up or down is everyone's guess and very volatile. I'm sitting ready to drop another thousand one of these days but I'm not trying to pick the bottom haha.
The dollar might have slight increases here and there like everything else that decreases slowly but the long term trend is DOWN. Dont expect any significant gains in the dollar and probably will go much lower.
My opinion of course.
Eventually it will play out and we will see what happens but I seriously doubt we'll ever see phusical gold at 1300 usd again.
Talk about toxic assets. Horrific condo collapse in Surfside, FL 
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/26/us/miami-building-collapse-investigation.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/26/us/miami-building-collapse-investigation.html
I don't think gold will drop very much, as the pandemic isn't over. Even mrna is losing effectiveness against latest variants. As for the rest, no need to mention. Not to mention war on the horizon.
You mention war on the horizon. I also feel the winds of war. Today’s cancelled Sydney silver meet was to include a call to arms to place the Stackeratti on a war footing.
I might create a thread soon along this line.
I might create a thread soon along this line.
Wouldnt surprise me if we see deflation in the bubbles and inflation in other things like food and commodities at the same time.
The system is so jacked up it will take a big correction in most things and its wound tight like a spring right now.
Eventually that energy will be released.
The system is so jacked up it will take a big correction in most things and its wound tight like a spring right now.
Eventually that energy will be released.
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
Yes, these new variants pop up like the latest edition of games for Playstation. Or, like the latest version of any trendy software.
Corona 1.0: Covid-19, "Corona" - the original, or the "Wuhan Edition": free to download for all, multiple infections guaranteed, you can even re-install it
Corona 1.1: The "South African Edition"
Corona 1.2: The "British Edition" - especially powerful and dangerous
Corona 1.3: The "Indian Edition"
Corona 2.0 Delta version: based on the "Indian Edition", just that this one comes without the Indian accent
Corona 1.0: Covid-19, "Corona" - the original, or the "Wuhan Edition": free to download for all, multiple infections guaranteed, you can even re-install it
Corona 1.1: The "South African Edition"
Corona 1.2: The "British Edition" - especially powerful and dangerous
Corona 1.3: The "Indian Edition"
Corona 2.0 Delta version: based on the "Indian Edition", just that this one comes without the Indian accent
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
Even if Deflation kicks in? Gold could be battered into the ground.
I think the demand for dollars is picking up now that international trade and tourism is getting a boost. I noticed that even locally, dollars tend to go up during the summer (and pre-summer) period.
Biden met with Putin and they agreed on a few things (provided that senile Biden remembers). So the Russian-US relations might be less "hot". That's not true of US-China relations...
The big question now is: is this a buying opportunity now or is gold going deeper?
TreasureHunter
Well-Known Member
How drastic currency devaluation looks like (in Lebanon, they lost 90% of the currency's value): at least according to this guy:
Just like in Venezuela. It's a runaway inflation.
Prices keep going up, most people don't know how much a dollar is supposed to be worth.
This reminds me of Argentina's situation.
Even currency rates are fluid and are determined by black markets, rather. At least, this is how it seems for ordinary people.
Prices change often and many people have lost their entire wealth.
Everyone is blaming the government. Riots, chaos and the inflation is growing.
At least Greece was lucky to have the Euro (yes, I am aware that this also had negative effects). But if they had kept the Drahma, it would have hyperinflated by now.
Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey, Iran, Lebanon... who is next?
Just like in Venezuela. It's a runaway inflation.
Prices keep going up, most people don't know how much a dollar is supposed to be worth.
This reminds me of Argentina's situation.
Even currency rates are fluid and are determined by black markets, rather. At least, this is how it seems for ordinary people.
Prices change often and many people have lost their entire wealth.
Everyone is blaming the government. Riots, chaos and the inflation is growing.
At least Greece was lucky to have the Euro (yes, I am aware that this also had negative effects). But if they had kept the Drahma, it would have hyperinflated by now.
Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey, Iran, Lebanon... who is next?
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Sothebys just auctioned as non-fungible token:
The Original Files Containing the Source Code for the World Wide Web, offered as an NFT
https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auc...im-berners-lee-an-nft/source-code-for-the-www
The Original Files Containing the Source Code for the World Wide Web, offered as an NFT
https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auc...im-berners-lee-an-nft/source-code-for-the-www