So what's China's next move?

S

Silver260

Well-Known Member
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Covid 19 is making a lot of countries/companies , who depend upon manufacturing from China, look at their own internal supply chains, as well as alternative sources.

China's entire economy is based upon supplying cheap labour and products to the rest of the world. It can't afford to lose this role.

Are we going to ultimately see a stimulus program of gigantic proportions, similar to the GFC ?. Or will they simply hope this passes by, with little impact on future supply chains?. Will they accelerate their own efforts to become self-sufficient?

Will our own ( Western) demand for cheap labour and products, override any real demand for change, once things return to normal?

I'm sure there's probably 100 different points I haven't even considered. I'm possibly even looking at this from the wrong perspective.

Any thoughts or articles on this greatly appreciated :)
 
I think that it's going to be two tsunamis for the Chinese economy and businesses unfortunately. The first wave washed over China when it's factories and businesses shut down for the most part and is still occurring although they seem to be recovering.

The second wave will be that as they are getting back on their feet their international customer base will be moving into shutdown as the WuFlu sweeps around the world. A long recovery time indeed.

The third wave could potentially be the failure of many airlines and shipping companies that cannot survive the downturn. And no doubt many, many second order consequences that will make it difficult for Chinese businesses to get their manufactured goods into the hands of their shrinking international customer base. For example the cancellation of thousands of passenger airline movements around the world also cancels many of the millions of Chinese government subsidised "free shipping" Ebay parcels that were carried around the world in the holds of passenger flights each day.

What will China do? I suspect that the CCP will have to turn it's attention inwards to deal with domestic turmoil as small-medium enterprises fail by the hundreds of thousands and their debt crisis magnifies. They may have to tone down their military and One Belt One Road aspirations for a while to deal with a burgeoning middle class crisis at home.
 
Shaddam IV said:
I think that it's going to be two tsunamis for the Chinese economy and businesses unfortunately. The first wave washed over China when it's factories and businesses shut down for the most part and is still occurring although they seem to be recovering.

The second wave will be that as they are getting back on their feet their international customer base will be moving into shutdown as the WuFlu sweeps around the world. A long recovery time indeed.

The third wave could potentially be the failure of many airlines and shipping companies that cannot survive the downturn. And no doubt many, many second order consequences that will make it difficult for Chinese businesses to get their manufactured goods into the hands of their shrinking international customer base. For example the cancellation of thousands of passenger airline movements around the world also cancels many of the millions of Chinese government subsidised "free shipping" Ebay parcels that were carried around the world in the holds of passenger flights each day.

What will China do? I suspect that the CCP will have to turn it's attention inwards to deal with domestic turmoil as small-medium enterprises fail by the hundreds of thousands and their debt crisis magnifies. They may have to tone down their military and One Belt One Road aspirations for a while to deal with a burgeoning middle class crisis at home.
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They will invade Taiwan and solve all their problems with conscription of the unemployed. There's no debt crisis big enough that a war can't fix!
 
All Chinese cities have strict measures still and it will be like that until a vaccine is available. The same in Korea and any other city or town in the world soon.

Stories of Chinese factories coming back to normal is patently false. Sure some will break the rules, but few days from now China, south korea and any other country even after the peak will have another break out and that areas will be locked down, this is life and the new normal.

Social Distancing is the new norm in any public places and in the work place.
Go to a South Korean ticket sites, there is nothing to buy... not because its sold out, but because there is no sports, events or concerts now scheduled to October

Ask people in expat areas in China if there are still check points everywhere wearing hazmat suits, answer will be yes.

Many cities within China have 14 day quarantine requirement in government facilities if they come from outside of the province.

Only high tech factories can achieve semblance of normal production most less hi tech factories are still struggling to get workers or even permits to open.

Stop worrying about China until we have our shit in order.
We might come out of Covid-19 a bankrupted third world country lol.
 
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Shaddam IV said:
One Belt One Road aspirations for a while to deal with a burgeoning middle class crisis at home.
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The One Belt One Road will continue but it will be re-calibrated. After this episode, China will refocus on northern borders (Mongolia, North Korea, Kazakhstan) instead of the South China Sea. Traditionally, the risk had always been from the north.

Why did you think they built the Great Wall of China 2000 years ago? The current rulers didn't heed the advice of the ancestors. In order to secure the central plains, you need to subjugate the north, north east and north west. Then you can have southern adventures.

The Ming splurged on Zheng Ho trips to the South China Sea, neglected the North and in the end, the Manchus from the north invaded and conquered them.
 
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the BRI had been budgeted for, so long as participant countries can do, its full steam ahead
China will continue to diversify, chemical explosions, the Wuhan virus lock down
its too obvious, the world cannot even make sufficient face musk
Chinese is determined to beat corona-virus
 
China sending tons of Medical equipment to Italy and experts to help.


We are still debating if NRL matches should be played.

Before the spike in South Korea, South Korean Government sent a giant cargo ship loaded with medical supplies to China (yes plenty of SK citizens complained). But now China is sending South Korea expedited supplies it can spare and within few weeks, China has reciprocated in kind with more than what South Korea sent
 
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Ipv6Ready said:
China sending tons of Medical equipment to Italy and experts to help.


We are still debating if NRL matches should be played.

Before the spike in South Korea, South Korean Government sent a giant cargo ship loaded with medical supplies to China (yes plenty of SK citizens complained). But now China is sending South Korea expedited supplies it can spare and within few weeks, China has reciprocated in kind with more than what South Korea sent
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If the world always worked like this is would be an incredible place to live.
Sadly too many are happy to just take and never return .
 
sterling-nz said:
If i was China and had a tendency towards revenge i would thinking about the HUUUUUUGE tariffs i might impose on exported medicines and ingredients to make them.
That's just me though
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Revenge against who?

I think you underestimated the Chinese. The CCP may talk tough and nasty, but revenge is not their cup of tea. China won’t be a nation for 2000 years if all they think of is revenge. In comparison, all the other superpowers have less than 400 years history as a unified country. Chinese people don’t live in the past.

When the Manchus conquered China, they killed tens of million Chinese, entire cities were slaughtered if they don’t surrender, Mongol style. Today, the Manchus are intermarried with the Chinese. Did they talk about revenge? The Chinese culture today is partly Manchurian.
 
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Ipv6Ready said:
Only high tech factories can achieve semblance of normal production most less hi tech factories are still struggling to get workers or even permits to open.

Stop worrying about China until we have our shit in order.
We might come out of Covid-19 a bankrupted third world country lol.
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This is exactly what concerns me. China consumes 30% of our exports, add tourism ect on top of that. What they do next, will have a massive impact on our future.
 
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If this virus mutates into a real killer and the food chain is disrupted, then the next move may be Soylent Green.
 
heartastack said:
Last I saw the TV today they (MSM) were condemning anyone who associates the virus with China as bigoted racists. The priority of the MSM must always be to make us feel ashamed even in crisis.
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The MSM is there to tell you off for thinking for yourself. Doesn't matter what conclusion you reach, do not think for your self no matter what. Just switch on the telly and listen. Don't think.

We live in a very curious world that is only eyes deep. What you see is what you get. Nothing passes deeper than your skin, no processing by the brain or heart.
 
sgbuyer said:
Revenge against who?

I think you underestimated the Chinese. The CCP may talk tough and nasty, but revenge is not their cup of tea. China won’t be a nation for 2000 years if all they think of is revenge. In comparison, all the other superpowers have less than 400 years history as a unified country. Chinese people don’t live in the past.

When the Manchus conquered China, they killed tens of million Chinese, entire cities were slaughtered if they don’t surrender, Mongol style. Today, the Manchus are intermarried with the Chinese. Did they talk about revenge? The Chinese culture today is partly Manchurian.
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I am afraid i strongly disagree.
China has survived as a nation for 3000 years BECAUSE THEY LIVE IN THE PAST.
It is the past that binds them together .
 
sterling-nz said:
I am afraid i strongly disagree.
China has survived as a nation for 3000 years BECAUSE THEY LIVE IN THE PAST.
It is the past that binds them together .
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You might have read too much CCP propaganda. Reality is different from propaganda. Xi asked Abe why Chinese liked Japanese culture so much whereas the Japanese disliked the Chinese.

There are even some Chinese people with Japanese names but you can hardly find a Japanese person living in Japanese with a non-Japanese name.
 
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its not very long, after
China is sending help to Iran, Iraq and Italy
 
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