If you're willing to ignore the deficits in global mining supply vs global demand, the declining ore grades over the past few decades, the reduction in the mining ratio of silver to gold from 10:1 in 2015 to 8:1 in 2019, the deminishing above ground available stockpiles and influence a small amount of money (relative to other markets) can make on the silver market, then yeah, a 1:1 silver to gold price ratio won't happen in our lifetimes....
but...
Considering Only 30% of mines that produce silver specifically target silver in their operations, then who do we turn to when we require additional global supply? Are Gold, Copper, lead and zinc miners going to increase output to add to the global silver supply? Possibly, but the most likely places we will get an increase in silver supply is through the primary silver mines and scrap metal refiners.
Understanding the above point, one must ask: what is the annual production capacity of silver refiners and primary silver mines? If we have a 200 million oz increase in investor demand, where would that silver come from in a yearly deficit environment?
Because silver is such a small market and we have yearly mining deficits + an estimated 4x less available above ground silver when compared to gold, even the smallest amount of money going into the silver market could see the price ratio between silver and gold tank to record lows.
I believe we could see a 1:1 silver to gold price ratio in most of our lifetimes, just by continuing the current trend of increased industrial demand and stagnant/decreasing mining supply. Even more likely if you factor in the potential financial crisis and/or global currency crisis.
Additionally, the Comex manipulation only works if you can feed the markets with the physical metal in time of deficit. How long this can continue is anyone's guess, but this doesn't mean we can't make calculated estimates:
In 2018 it has been estimated that we have approx. 530,000 Metric Tonnes (MT) of known global below ground silver reserves and approx. 50,000 MT of global above ground silver reserves and a further estimated 64,000 MT of investment grade silver.
There are 32,154 Troy ounces in 1 MT of silver.
530,000 MT = 17 billion Oz's below ground.
50,000 MT = 1.6 billion Oz's above ground.
64,000 MT = 2 billion Oz's of investor grade silver above ground.
This equates to 20.6 billion Oz's of potential silver supply for our future, or potentially 20 years at current demand.
One very important factor to consider is Scrap metal refining. Currently we rely on scrap metal refining to make up the shortfall of Global mine supply vs global demand (20%). Eventually, the price of silver will reach a level where scrap metal refining will be economical to meet a significant % of global demand, but just like the below ground silver stockpiles, the above ground available silver scrap for recycling is also a finite supply.
I haven't even scratched the surface on how Silvers price could explode to levels which match gold. I believe that anyone intending to hold silver for 15-20 years will be rewarded handsomely for their patience.
I think many veteran stackers have seen the cycles and understand the level of control and manipulation within the silver market. They also understand the hype and the narrow-sighted 'optimism' regurgitated by the speculators. But I think the longer you've been in the Silver game, the more susceptible you are to the "Once bitten, twice shy" conditioning, which can result in ignorance towards the core fundamentals of the silver market.
D Just messin').