What's the future of silver look like to you?

Number 47 said:
I must be getting bored.

Feel free to pick this apart, there's likely to be errors everywhere here. I'll try to show my workings.
With BIG numbers comes BIG errors.:eek:

The problem I see with going back to a gold standard is...

Let's take the USA on its own.

US Nominal GDP: $19.39 trillion
I'll round that up to $20 trillion
That I believe means there's 20,000,000,000,000 US dollars in existence.
Apparently the US gold reserve is
8,133.5 metric tons, that's
261,498,097 troy ounces

Therefore, if my calculations are correct,
In order to back all the US dollars in existence with US gold, one troy oz of gold would have to be worth...

20,000,000,000,000 dollars
÷ 261,498,097 ozt
= $76,482.4 per ozt

That would make a few gold stackers happy.

There's always the much more plausible reverse,
Clean the slate and introduce a new currency, just as we did in Australia in 1966 when the Australian Dollar was introduced on 14 th February 1966 to replace the pre-decimal Australian pound.
Adjust the "value" of the new currency to match both the gold reserve volume and the current gold price.

US gold reserve = 216,498,097 ozt
Times the current US gold spot price of $1537 / out
= 332,757,575,089 "new gold backed dollars" in existence.

As a fraction that's
332,757,575,089
Over
20,000,000,000,000

So the new dollar is roughly 1/60th of the old one.

Take your existing bank balance, wage and cost of everything and divide them by 60,
There's the new gold backed dollar.
One new US dollar buys one troy ounce of gold.

Is that correct?
Click to expand...

It's an interesting exercise to do just to think "what would it be" etc.

There's a few avenues / alternatives. If looking at backing against a currency, calculate against M1/M2 money supply which is lower than your GDP calc. If going wider for non cash / near cash assets, inc M3 which then increases closer to your GDP number. M1-3 supply numbers in the attached link.

https://www.jmbullion.com/investing-guide/pricing-payments/golds-price-vs-us-dollar-M1-M2-M3/#

The bigger for giggles "what if" is if you add US Govt actual and contingent debt into the mix, what price then gold to pay off all the debt??

Have fun...:)
 
66rounds said:
When hyperinflation kicks in, all the 0's won't matter. Governments will just cut them off and issue a new currency pegged at whatever rate their fortune tellers tell them to use.
Click to expand...

Send a sample to Gov Lowe. The RBA can crib off these.

91shGU2NjuL._SX355_.jpg
 
Oddjob said:
It's an interesting exercise to do just to think "what would it be" etc.

There's a few avenues / alternatives. If looking at backing against a currency, calculate against M1/M2 money supply which is lower than your GDP calc. If going wider for non cash / near cash assets, inc M3 which then increases closer to your GDP number. M1-3 supply numbers in the attached link.

https://www.jmbullion.com/investing-guide/pricing-payments/golds-price-vs-us-dollar-M1-M2-M3/#

The bigger for giggles "what if" is if you add US Govt actual and contingent debt into the mix, what price then gold to pay off all the debt??

Have fun...:)
Click to expand...
I've only just finished quenching my head under cool running water after the last number crunching session... I'm certainly no mathematical boffin.
I didn't even think of including the national debt... holey moley, I think I can smell smoke coming from my ears.
 
If you want to STEAL more of the wealth of the producing class, may I suggest a quicker way with a few of these. The cost is about the same, just add a few 0's.
What a quaint idea, it's a wonder nobody else thought of it.
1,000,000,000 PONZIES.JPG
 
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If you really believe they will convert gold into currency by simply dividing the currency in existence and raising the price of gold then you had better hold on to your hats. Suddenly your average housewife has enough gold on fingers to buy a house. Buy shares in the meat cleaver business.
 
Slimey said:
If you really believe they will convert gold into currency by simply dividing the currency in existence and raising the price of gold then you had better hold on to your hats. Suddenly your average housewife has enough gold on fingers to buy a house. Buy shares in the meat cleaver business.
Click to expand...
That's precisely why i don't think that scenario would be plausible.
I'm pretty sure that if we had to revert to a gold backed currency, we'd need to invent a new dollar.

Edit: or simply just stack more gold in reserve as the link above in 66rounds suggests.

I'd like to hear from those who think it might happen, how they think it might be rolled out?
 
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Number 47 said:
That's precisely why i don't think that scenario would be plausible.
I'm pretty sure that if we had to revert to a gold backed currency, we'd need to invent a new dollar.

I'd like to hear from those who think it might happen, how they think it might be rolled out?
Click to expand...
Will work exactly like pounds to predecimal did. Old notes will be worth something until a cut off date, but likely not the value we expect.
 
Number 47 said:
That's precisely why i don't think that scenario would be plausible.
I'm pretty sure that if we had to revert to a gold backed currency, we'd need to invent a new dollar.

I'd like to hear from those who think it might happen, how they think it might be rolled out?
Click to expand...

Your fist proposition is incorrect

Number 47 said:
US Nominal GDP: $19.39 trillion
I'll round that up to $20 trillion
That I believe means there's 20,000,000,000,000 US dollars in existence

Is that correct?
Click to expand...

GDP is actually how many dollars are spent not how many exist.

Secondly in 1966 we Abandoned the Sterling and floated the AUD on the Stockmarket = trust us we don't need silver or gold to back our debits, just check out our GDP and high interest rates. AUD is as safe as ever!

Gold/silver price didn't adjust the 'adjustment' was $ buying power.
 
Number 47 said:
That's precisely why i don't think that scenario would be plausible.
I'm pretty sure that if we had to revert to a gold backed currency, we'd need to invent a new dollar.

Edit: or simply just stack more gold in reserve as the link above in 66rounds suggests.

I'd like to hear from those who think it might happen, how they think it might be rolled out?
Click to expand...

To my mind 66 is right just keep stacking and swapping.

Edit to add: you are right we will need a new dollar, I will hazard an uneducated guess -it will be centralised digital with all the benifits and pitfalls of our combined imagination 20x

How will it be rolled out? Probably doesn't matter that much, just watch for the end game play to see what comes next. Keep stacking.
 
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Haa gold! Well not really, actually probably the opposite........
from the bottom of the site in very small writing

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate.
 
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