I am starting to think my precious $13 silver is on the way

G

Gullintanni

Well-Known Member
If i scroll back on here i can find the exact date but i am to lazy but the guts of it is i sold pretty much all my silver some time ago as i had better use for the money and i thought it was going lower.
My price point for reentry is $13.??.
Should i manage to get my entry point i will be rewarded with much more silver than i originally started with kind of for free.
I have made mediocre use of the funds i cashed out , i have had fun but no great gains and some absolute losses with some cryto coins i put money into.
I am going to suggest now ( and i have no reasoning only a feeling) that we are going to hit $13 before a rebound to $40.
SO much going on in the world at the moment and instead of staying flat or rising the price of silver is dropping.
USA interest rate increases would be the reason for silver coming down , but then an imminent trade war should suggest and increase with a net FLAT being the result>>>>>no?
Assuming we do hit $13 and only if we go as low as $13 then i can see a play by play replay of Jan 08 and beyond.
I miss having coins to play with enmass and would relish having some of those same crypto buzz experiences with silver again except with silver when it bottoms out again i still have my beautiful coins instead of a crypto with an onscreen value of 0.00000002BTC.
Of course this only plays out in my world if we hit the magic $13.
I am not just going by the silver price for this now but also the NZD-USD pairing.
As silver dropped in 2008 the NZD was losing strength against the USD just like it is now.
Beginning of the year the USD was getting $1.34 NZD this is now up to $1.48 and i anticipate that climbing to perhaps $1.80 NZD.
Plenty of predictions out there i just thought i would throw mine into the mix as i am moderately confidant this will play out.
 
I doubt it will hit $13 again because the price manipulators fear sending some miners broke which would affect supply. When spot hit $13 before if I recall correctly oil was much cheaper thus minimizing miners operating costs. Also, spot has recently dropped against the USD but not against most other currencies coz they dropped against the USD.
 
I doubt silver will get as low as USD$13/oz but $15 is a definite possibility and I think this will be the bottom. When it gets to $15 get in quick before the bounce. Below this figure your going to get some real interest from the bigger players.
 
stackmans said:
I doubt silver will get as low as USD$13/oz but $15 is a definite possibility and I think this will be the bottom. When it gets to $15 get in quick before the bounce. Below this figure your going to get some real interest from the bigger players.
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At $15 i am not better off than when i sold.
We have the likes of courtjester here at SS thats says silver has been going "sideways>>>>>" well i think they are being generous.
When you take inflation and lost opportunities into account or either for that matter being stuck in this $15-17 range is losing money if buying at that price.
Perhaps they mean just the price is sideways which is true but value goes down every month it stagnates.
Silver will certainly have its day again as history has shown , but history has also shown us the rise is often very short lived and then it drops back.
I just no longer buy all the pumper reasons why it should be more expensive because a quick look will show it can be replaced in all applications with other materials.
Will silver ever run out???????????NO>>>>>> it does not matter if every mine on the planet stopped mining today because most of the metal ever mined is in warehouses and safes around the planet just sitting there.
Of course if all the mines stopped today the price would rise but that would only be because people demand more for the metal they are holding not because there is an actual physical lack of metal.
Many will disagree with my view some will agree .
The 2 biggest reasons i am looking for $13 is i actually like playing with silver and would like to replace + extras what i had and if it does it my $13 then i would be even more confident in my $40 next stop.
I still hit op shops and online for sterling jewelry and plates and spoons and all that other good stuff but it is not quite the same as holding a KG bag of predecimal florins or cutting open a tube of rounds.
 
Gullintanni, I cannot tell you or anyone what to do with regards to when to buy or sell. What I can tell you is my what I am doing. I've been stacking silver for about 5 years now and only intend to sell when silver dramatically rises to it rightful price after the next big crash and currencies reset against gold like just happened in Venezuala. It could be this year or in 5 years time but I suspect in next couple of years for sure. Either way I am happy to keep stacking silver at these ridiculously low suppressed prices. I am not worried about seeing my silver going sideways all these years while everything else has dramatically increased because I know everything else is in a bubble except for PMs. I do not know when all those bubbles will pop but I am not going to risk it. I am especially not going sell any of my silver at rock bottom price to go buy something that is in a bubble. I will rather be stacking 5 years too early then to be one day late when the shtf/reset happens. Imo all those stackers that been stacking against all those other bubble temptations will be greatly rewarded. Also, imo silver will go a minimum of 10X and I will never sell for less.
 
Exactly where, are you going to be able to purchase silver, when the price hits $13 ?
 
Skyrocket said:
I doubt it will hit $13 again because the price manipulators fear sending some miners broke which would affect supply. When spot hit $13 before if I recall correctly oil was much cheaper thus minimizing miners operating costs. Also, spot has recently dropped against the USD but not against most other currencies coz they dropped against the USD.
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Before I bought into Silver at $16.50+, I did extensive research and saw a recent video in which Jim Rogers claimed that gold might drop to $1000/ounce. If gold does drop to $1000, Silver will be at $11-$12. 2 months ago, the notion that gold can drop to $1000 is unthinkable, so I didn't heed his advice.

I'm not saying that Silver will drop to $13 or lower - if I know I would have waited a little longer before buying.

But what I do know is that if it drops to $13, I will buy another batch of shiny. Lower prices are not a bad thing for medium to long term investors - we can buy more along the way, averaging down our costs.
 
raven said:
Exactly where, are you going to be able to purchase silver, when the price hits $13 ?
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very good question, when spot hit $8.50, metal was trading for $12.00 at the end of 2008, then consolidated to 17.50 then hit 50.00 abt Apr 2011 then rest at 14.00 for a few months in end of 2015-to early 2016

anyone remember any thing on sales around that time ??? in the early 2016

now there are still something on sale at price 15.30 spot

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on the chart, can't buy at 13.00 and sell at 36.00 (SPOTS NOT on) never traded there !!!
 
To give some price-historical reference (USD), averages, with a decade resolution:
Period 1970-1982: silver $6.83 gold $213.3
Period 1983-1992: silver $5.75 gold $382.4
Period 1993-2003: silver $5.01 gold $331.2
Period 2004-2014: silver $18.11 gold $1015.32
Period 2015-2018(0720): silver $16.67 gold $1248

1970-2003 (33 years): silver $5.86
2004-2018 (14 years): silver $17.39

According to the data I collected, non-savings related price effects can be ignored - these summed up, across the different uses, and over time, to a near zero.
So, aboves price trend, should be purely related to silvers role as storage of value.

Now, in order to know what silver price is reasonable in terms of storage of value, we need a comparison basis.
I think a good one would be the housing market.
So it would be interesting if someone did this same work like I did for silver, for the housing market.
NO inflation adjusted figures, just the prices, at the time.
 
whay said:
To give some price-historical reference (USD), averages, with a decade resolution:
Period 1970-1982: silver $6.83 gold $213.3
Period 1983-1992: silver $5.75 gold $382.4
Period 1993-2003: silver $5.01 gold $331.2
Period 2004-2014: silver $18.11 gold $1015.32
Period 2015-2018(0720): silver $16.67 gold $1248

1970-2003 (33 years): silver $5.86
2004-2018 (14 years): silver $17.39

According to the data I collected, non-savings related price effects can be ignored - these summed up, across the different uses, and over time, to a near zero.
So, aboves price trend, should be purely related to silvers role as storage of value.

Now, in order to know what silver price is reasonable in terms of storage of value, we need a comparison basis.
I think a good one would be the housing market.
So it would be interesting if someone did this same work like I did for silver, for the housing market.
NO inflation adjusted figures, just the prices, at the time.
Click to expand...

Thanks for putting up the figures. The price of silver in the last 50 years has generally been low and is getting lower in recent years as compared to housing. At the same time, interest rates have hit historic lows until recently in some countries.

In my opinion, expensive housing now reflects cheap leverage (cheap money) rather than inflation, as property is usually purchased using a loan of 80-90% of the value and in some cases, even 100%. Interest rates until recently had been the lowest in 50 years since the world abandoned the gold standard. If housing interest rates were to revert to the long term average of 5-10%, will people still be able to afford million dollar property?

At the same time, cheap money has led to the over exploration and exploitation of natural resources from oil to minerals to metals. The rise of the billion strong middle class consumers in China and India will mean that everyone wants an iPhone, a car and probably a solar panel roof.

The question now is:

1. Will the US continue printing unlimited amount of dollars to buy goods from China and the rest of the world.
2. Even if the US wants to and can continue printing unlimited dollars, is there sufficient natural resources left in the ground to supply to the new billion middle class consumers.

If you look at what is happening to the trade war, the answer to question 1 is no - the US is no longer interested in printing unlimited of dollars to buy cheap stuff from China, so the supply of cheap money is going to slow down, at least in the short term.

As for question 2, I'm still trying to determine the answer.

In the meantime, Silver and gold prices may and probably continue to fall due to the coming deflationary bust, but in the long run, resources are going to get more expensive.
 
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I just collected some housing price data for my country
Year Average house price
1973 14498
1974 16573
1975 18765
1976 23574
1977 28522
1978 32221
1979 35377
1980 35567
1981 33810
1982 32522
1983 32114
1984 32202
1985 32801
1986 34509
1987 35810
1988 38137
1989 42363
1990 45441
1991 48463
1992 52499
1993 56074
1994 60469
1995 62954
1996 65612
1997 67681
1998 71799
1999 76832
2000 79661
2001 83617
2002 89642
2003 96181
2004 101355
2005 131955
2006 149436
2007 164155
2008 172678
2009 172277
2010 181012
2011 188398
2012 193561
2013 197663
2014 200567
2015 204727
2016 211576
2017 216781

Using the same method as for silver this gives:

Period 1972-1982: 27143 euro
Period 1983-1992: 39434 euro
Period 1993-2003: 73684 euro
Period 2004-2014: 168460 euro
Period 2015-2017: 211028 euro

1973-2003 (31 years): 46754 euro
2004-2017 (13 years): 189744 euro

Focus on those last biggest time frames: 189744/46754=4.06
For silver this was 17.39/5.86=2.97

So, compared to houses, which I think is a dominant market, maybe the biggest one out there, since most peoples biggest spending in life is usually a house, silver at this years average so far, undervalued 27%.
And using todays price, $15.56, so 15.56/5.86=2.65, undervalued 35%

This is what I ment in my previous post.
In order to judge whether or not a price is historically high or low, one has to compare to prices of other products, preferrably products that most/all people buy.

So maybe a next idea could be bread price. It has to be a product that exists over the entire period, and changed little.

Nevertheless, I see housing as a good indicator, because it's in terms of value a very big market. A boom or bust there, has huge consequences, just look at the crisis in 2008, starting with the US housing bust following a boom.
Even here, in Belgium (see figures above), the house price multiplied by 2.29, in a single decade, while after the big 197x crisis, they "only" multiplied by 1.45.

To take into account: all figures are averages and over the long time. These say nothing about the short time. To illustrate: remember that $50 peak in 198x. 1970 was $1.6 and 1992 (yea lol, those that bought in 1992, anywhere in the year, made a good deal) was $3.7
Just think about it. Imagine you bought silver in 1980 near that peak moment of $50, and gave up the breakeven (in mathematical terms not in purchasing power terms haha) 12 years later in 1992, selling at $3.7, well received in 1992 less than 1 dollar for every 10 dollars they paid in 1980.
But if they had in 1980 take a look at historical prices, and other prices (like here housing), they'd never be willing to pay that $50. Hell, even not $10. And that's how these long term averages can also aid in short term decisions.

Todays price may be good on the very long term, but there's a big chance on better (lower) ones. Peak year 2011 is less than a decade ago, and in the economy it's now all rosy flowers bees and sunshine. There will surely be a next crisis, with plenty people being lured or even forced into selling at loss prices, which deserves a "maybe".

This was Pirocco, live from the graveyard. :D
 
btw while judging my data my wallet shaked so much that I couldn't stop it, so I ordered 85 1oz, same price (/weight) as the 6 kilo's couple days ago, extra reason being a specific coin that is price tagged alot more at all other dealers around, that I also like (design) and has some unseen-before shape properties: the new zealand mint "niue athenian owl 2018", with a relief that makes the coins fit in and next to eachother (kinda reeds on obverse and reverse, giving a look abit like a car tire). They had only 85 in stock so I added them all.

Just out of curiosity, I checked those 1 kilo Lunar 2018's I recently bought, I had out of stock at 7 (not that I intended to buy more, actually I thought 5 but since 6 in stock I took an extra). But yesterday already, they apparently received supplies, because now I can add to 80.
So, since they have an option to warehouse/not deliver, I chosed that. I'll see what the stock, and more importantly the silver price does.

These owls appeared to me as an opportunity, I think I have seen 3-4 of these before (most notably a whole bunch libertad kilo coins), and they all turnt out to have been good choices. Those Libertads today, much lower silver price, still cost 640 euro - way more than the 500 euro that a "cheap" kilocoin now costs, while I bought them as such basic cheap kilocoins, so my loss on these is substantially less. At Apmex the cheapest is $790.57, which is 674 euro.
 
raven said:
Exactly where, are you going to be able to purchase silver, when the price hits $13 ?
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The very same dealer acquaintance that took the other stuff off my hand.
I sell things of value as a hobby/job so i dont have to go back to fulltime work and can be home for the kids during the day.
As i have said before i still make money on silver at this price or any price but on a smaller scale than the larger amount i sold in one hit and what i will buy back in with.
It is all relative really because whatever i sold at was directly related to spot price and so it will be when i buy back.
Seriously i never dreamed you could make the cash i do from just hitting op shops and garage sales and then reselling with some effort.
It aint making me a millionaire but it is enough to save a little and allow me to be home with the kids instead of slaving with the missus at the pharmaceutical trial sites.
 
Inflation and housing prices aside, the biggest fear that drove me to look into pm is the possibility of government confiscation of property. Communism is still very much alive today and many countries like China and maybe Russia to some extent are actually communist - China is of course officially communist with a partial market economy modeled after Singapore since the late 1980s.

If you live in a Western style democracy you may not realise it. Yes, a lot of Americans fear this (America being among the least democratic of the West but still a democracy nonetheless), but really, the chance of confiscation happening in China is many times that of the US.

In China, all land is owned by the communist party. Property owners are basically just tenants. If the going gets tough enough, and the rich poor gap starts to threaten the stability of the country, partial confiscation of private property by the state is not an impossibility because the Chinese government actually has the power to do this and I can tell you no one dares to object.

The risk of confiscation is nothing new, every rich person in China knows this, that's why they have been sending money out of China to buy real estate in countries such as Australia, Canada and the US, sending their kids out and get a Permanent Residency permit as an insurance. No one knows when the day will come, but with the biggest real estate bubble in the world, and large country with the worst demographics in the world due to single child policy, it will only be a matter of time before this happens.
 
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