charts not looking good AT ALL.

Discussion in 'Silver' started by stellaconcepts, Jun 24, 2011.

  1. THUCYDIDES79

    THUCYDIDES79 New Member Silver Stacker

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    This is pretty much as close as you can get from what i know of that is available online

    http://www.24hgold.com/english/silver_market_premium.aspx

    there are a few silver coins that are available to be tracked.
     
  2. Ag

    Ag Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    True,but I'm refering to NOW...are the premiums currently available from majority of dealers (not cherry picking one or two)compared with historic percentages? Can I ask you what percentage you thinks is avg standard? eg 6-8%?

    It always starts with the Miners - they sell to the refinary for spotish,who sell to the mint plus some,who sell to the distrubitor who adds some who sells to the dealer who adds some who sells to you or me who STACK some :)

    If a Miner can make a profit at $30/oz why will he keep 'working' at $25/oz? If you needed to make $20/hr to live, would you work for $17/hr?

    Sounds great cheap silver but is really possible? Would a mine go double time digging up the ore so you can get cheap Ag? Business practise says you either fold or limp along covering overheads only until the trend changes...how much demand would there be for 'cheap' silver?would you even get any?

    Not Argueing - just putting a different look on things - I see everything pretty much rose coloured thanks to Silver, but two sides to any practical situation...
     
  3. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    YES
    there is a book by Franklin Sanders but a bit outdated 2006

    WHY SILVER WILL OUTPERFORM GOLD 400% &
    HOW YOU CAN JOIN THE PARTY



    http://the-moneychanger.com/entry.phtml
     
  4. malachii

    malachii Well-Known Member

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    The problem with this theory is most silver mines are actually not silver mines but other metal mines and silver is just the by-product. They would keep mining silver and selling it even if spot fell to $1oz because it is purely the rubbish that they must get rid of or treat/dispose of onsite and that is much more expensive for the mining company.

    malachii
     
  5. Ag

    Ag Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    EXACTLY! it's a by product or 'rubbish' as you put it...so if the spot price for zinc,tin,nickle,copper,etc drops with Silver (pretty likely) then the supply dries up?no point a mine working extra shifts for low return - agree? So now less supply should mean less demand?being it's not a good investiment? not likely...check how many dealers are having supply or delay issues in getting physical NOW with a lower spot - talk to a few bigger dealers and see what the lead time is for shot...and the spot price they need to pay and amount available. Spot drops = supply shirnks.

    Are there more or less people investing or buying silver compared to last year? Whats China and India doing? really why would any person buy PM's? To protect wealth during uncertian finacial times or possible currency crisis. Not sure about you but thats all I hear and see around me everyday. Of all the times to be buying physical is NOW yet I'm amazed how many people fail to see it! China and India are kids in a candy shop loaded up with cash buying everything not nailed down for peanuts! The longer the spot is low, the more cash being pushed in...

    Look I WOULD LOVE TO SEE AND BUY $10/OZ SILVER WHO WOULDN'T? or any lower price...but whats the likely hood?high? possible? slim? you have to make your own choice...

    What do you think the price will be end of the year or in 3 years time? $100/oz? $500/oz? Take whatever that figure is and compare to getting most rounds or similar today at $39-$42 - will that additional $3 mean much if you did buy? what will it mean to you if you didn't buy?

    I wasn't buying physical during GFC as I didn't know about PM's but have spoken to alot of people and researched the availability then - it was hard to get - PM investers have tight grips on physical - the lowest spot from memory was $9/oz - find out what the 'buy' price was to get a few rounds at that stage? You might be shocked...say you thought $12/oz or $13/oz - can all the businesses involved from the mine and the dealer supply this to you at this price? will they?or cut production to a minimum...I can see supply for physical dropping for numerious reasons beyond just the spot - I don't have the cool head you guys have to hold out :)

    So look forward to discussing this or anything you want if we hit $10/oz (or some lower price than today) while waiting 5 hours in line at the dealers...
     
  6. Mr Medved

    Mr Medved Member

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    +1

    My purchases in the last six months can still be flipped at profit (including dealer margins). I have no reason to sell even if the price is likely to dip further as I don't see this as the end of the secular bull market... however it is always important to have some $$$ so that you have a little liquidity and don't become a forced seller.
     
  7. SilverBaron

    SilverBaron Member Silver Stacker

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    Why can people just accept they are got burned from $49 to $32? Instead of saying "it was ok that i bought at $49 the premiums today are still high"

    I know i got burned :(
     
  8. Ag

    Ag Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Not sure if that at me :)

    Actually didn't get burnt because I didn't buy but didn't have the guts to dump as Stella did...but I've been buying since and will continue almost regardless of the spot to $50/oz - after that I'm done!
     
  9. THUCYDIDES79

    THUCYDIDES79 New Member Silver Stacker

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    We all got burned on paper ! the oz are still there :)
     
  10. Old Codger

    Old Codger Active Member Silver Stacker

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    It is better to buy low than buying high, but the most important factor for me is the very fact that i have possession of 'sufficient' physical silver.

    I think my average cost is about $38 to $40 an ounce and I am aiming for 2000 ounces before the SHTF.

    At that time, $40 an ounce will seem CHEAP!


    OC
     
  11. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    this is the second chance to buy on the real Deal again hiho silver down. can get more silver for the same amount of cash. hihoooo
     
  12. BBQ

    BBQ Member

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    Is that a truck I hear backing up outside? I believe so.
    *beeeeep, beeeeep, beeeeep, beeeeep*

    :)
     
  13. Clawhammer

    Clawhammer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Also Gold's just dipped below $US1500.

    Might be time to blow the cobwebs off the old frog 'n' feather!
     
  14. euphoria

    euphoria New Member

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    I think the big thing people are not discussing is the AUDUSD rate in all of this. I am thinking of buying an additional 25% to my stack on this pullback. However am unsure. If silver spot falls I think the AUD will go with it, negating the discount on the purchasing side. Really not too sure but as crazy as it sounds I don't mind sitting on a little cash at the moment. Have a core stack that Im fairly happy with and earning 6.5% on cash does not seem to bad at this moment. Plus if shtf you will need currency to get by on for a little while, particulary if you lose your job or become unemployed. Would suck to have to sell silver to get by. If you are in the US, i would buy for us aussies, I am not so sure at the moment.
     
  15. NQDave

    NQDave Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Silver options expiry tomorrow, and silver drops, you can set a watch to these guys every month.
     
  16. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Yeah it feels like the AUD is strongly correlated towards commodity pricing such as Silver.

    The downward trend for Silver seems to be outpacing the decline of the AUD though so perhaps it is profitable for us in Australia to buy some Silver when it dips.
     
  17. Clawhammer

    Clawhammer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    If I were Stella... I'd be feeling kinda' smug right about now! :cool:
     
  18. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    hope we silver stacker can get all the silver we ever wanted and more and cheap!

    ups and downs oh boys hihooooo hihoooooooo, can't wait to get the ORANG-UTAN !!! here I come to the rescue .... hiiiiihoooooooo
     
  19. Goldmember

    Goldmember Member

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  20. Naphthalene Man

    Naphthalene Man Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Hmmm that sound that i can hear here is the truck going past at a rapid speed. Damn i dislike having no money.

    While i'm still okay price wise at the moment i can't help feel nervous. I'm comfortable in this dip but i want to be more comfortable that it will go back up again. My brain tells me that, to the best of my knowledge, the fundamentals are still there, but.... Geez the guy on my shoulder is getting heavy...
     

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