Lets say I paid $Y for the pamps yesterday. If I trade in physical pamps and I have a buyer today my sell price is $X, but my buy price is $X-1 today, so I made $1 regardless of the my $Y price, because I sill have my pamps + $1. As you see $Y has no relation to my physical position in ounces, but I'm $1 better off than I was yesterday regardless of the price of silver. On the other hand if I trade paper silver, my price is always $Y-(margarines buy or sell). If the price stay the same I lose money, if the price goes against me I lose money. Strictly mathematically speaking I have 51% chance to lose money and 49% to make money with paper silver but 100% chace with physical.
Perfect explanation Other attempt to make you feel better - do you beat yourself up for not having brought more at say $17/oz? or at the time you brought at $19 then cursed your self when it dropped to $17 - are you still head butting the wall today? Stella - I realize you more of a trader than purely buy and hold investor but you now have the Pamps regardless of cost - during a big run,it's pretty difficult to convert large amounts of cash to physical while everyone else is attempting the same thing - just not standing in line for hours would be worth a few bucks an ounce to me personally
Hey silver report, I'm hoping for a mid to low 30's GSR 20's would be great but at 30 I could drop 90 ozs for 3 of gold and given that I paid 30 for the silver in question itd be the equivalent of 900/oz. Would like to hang on longer but its risky. But that's the name of the game!
why do you have to wait? put down your gold and get silver when above 42, later put silver down and get gold closer to 32. 10 oz of silver free!
It's all point of view, the chart looks bad if your wanting to sell but looks great if you are wanting to buy
John, I've got that feeling too, and have been holding fire for a while now based 'emotion' or 'intuition '. But everytime I try to quantify my decision using the old japanses candles... my prediction gets the 'roman candle' treatment. Any chance you could put up a chart or even post a YT vid on what's got your jedi senses piqued?
I was kinda being light hearted about the pamps - im not really spewing... I just knew the prices would drop as I've been discussing on my channel... infact, I am net short the metals at the moment and kinda doing really well - but I know thats not really what this forum is about so I won't go on about it
Peter - I would take that bet...more important what will Gold drop to? or is it to precious to correct? :lol:
Ooops, hadn't been checking your channel for a while....thought you'd given up on the youtube thing!. Looked at the charts you and endlessmountain were commenting on. Fair enough!
What's to really say... I'm short the equiv of many thousands of oz of silver... (paper) which covers all silver and roughly the current gold:silver ratio of silver that i hold in physical gold (if that makes sense - basically id think the silver chart is weaker than the gold chart so rather than hedging my gold and I am short about how many oz in gold have converted to the current gold to silver ratio).
I re-read that post and it makes no sense hopefully this helps: Rather than short 1 oz of gold to hedge one oz of physical gold, the current G:S ratio is about 40 to 1 So I have hedged 40oz worth of silver for every 1oz of gold I own. I am also short all the physical SILVER I own. Making me hedged entirely. I am also short more on top of all that. Making me - NET SHORT on the precious metals price Basically, if the gold silver ratio goes up and silver goes down - I make more fiat than if the metals were to rise... hope that explains it The best thing about the position at the moment is I can't lose on the hedge, I'm up exactly $2 for every ounce of silver I've shorted (shorted at 36.30). All this in USD as well, I havent hedged the FX exposure cause I think there is a chance that PM's might actually go up in AUD - which would be awesome cause I win on the hedge as well as the physical. NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WEEK. Can gold hold the $1500 area - my bet is no. $1475 is the next zone and if that fails I'm going to look to $1425 as I spoke about in my last gold vid.,
Gold goes up and down , like everything else.The important thing for me is , its gone down half what silver has. So i'm glad I'm more into gold. And if things get bad I think silver will continue down and gold will go up. But the Aud also fell,and I think it will cushion both Silver and Gold . In fact I can see the possibility that Silver and Gold could both fall in USD,and both go up in Aud,due to a badly falling AUD. Aud is based on resources,and when people stop buying resources............ I notice the Chinese cancelled a billion dollar Iron ore project the other day. I'm really betting on a fall in AUD.Thats what I'm really about,thats my strategy. If bad stuff hits it will cause AUD to fall and if it also causes gold to fall,the price of gold in AUD will be cushioned. More likely that AUD will fall and gold go up in USD and AUD. But I don't thnk anyone can tell whats going to happen.To many complex factors to really be able to make a good prediction. But of all the bets you can make , I think gold is the LEAST worse one you can make. I wouldn't be suprised if I lost on gold,but of all bets I think it's the best I'm SHTF .So I'm into wealth preservation, not increasing wealth. And if Silver falls to those amounts,($22-25) I've got cash to buy. Not against Silver,I own some,good small change if SHTF:just careful. In good times gamble,in bad times preserve capital.
That needs some extra mine production and/or people selling below $32, which is the dollarcreation floor. People buy silver to avoid buying power losses due to dollarcreation. Selling below $32 is like deliberately signing for losses.
Uh yeah, even if it goes below 30 you won't be able to touch physical for under 35. This latest drop I was only able to get it at around 38 an ounce even thougfh spot was in the mid 34's. I say if you can get physical for under 40/oz. Its a relatively good buy. Sme goes for gold under 1510. CAD that is....
And the point of all that is to basically bring your DCA down as the price goes down ( and also make some extra dough on the shorts on top)?
Peter, First of all - Not here to stir! I re read my response which seemed cheeky - not my intention... ...but I still don't get your view point? What period are you referring to? Silver has dropped from $48 to $32 recently while Gold has been flat/stable, but for the year to date in percentage terms, silver still has out preformed Gold...the spike/correction returned to a price from 5 weeks earlier Is this because silver is an industrial metal and not a PM as you mentioned? I think they will both follow each other during a SHTF - either both up or down...Silver has been used as money in more countries and for longer than Gold...I really cant see the seperation you mention. Can I ask what Platinum will do? will it soar with Gold or drop with Silver? and Palladium? both of those metals are far more precious than Gold - whats to say Gold and silver both get kicked into touch and they take center stage? Agree - if the turkeys flight to the US$ again as per 2008, AUS$ will plummet ($.60) which allows 45% cushion...but if the US$ collaspe is the reason for GFC2 then they need somewhere else to hide...all intrinsic assets will benefit Yes they did but think this related to the high AUS$ than the deal. China are pegged to US$ - convert that to AUS$ currently is a deal breaker. You will see this deal pop up somewhere else in the world or back in AUS with a weaker dollar.(post GFC2?) Agreed - just my three pence and your Gold Franc... SHTF average Joe will pile first into Gold - that I'm sure - but pretty confident Silver will follow.Looking at historical charts, it always has - nout sure why it wouldn't this time I hope you can but think it will be pretty hard to come by without massive premiums - did you try to by Silver during the 2008 drop? bit like procuring Rocking Horse do do...unless 65% markups was within budget but even still very very very slim pickings. Well my friend the chips are on the table, the dealer is ready to call 'no more bets', and the wheel is ready to spin... Good luck and we will share a beer down the track to discuss the aftermath...
Chart looks great for buyers and all the gurus I've consulted say silver is going up, up, up later this year (along with gold and other commodities).
