Rubbish. The opportunity cost comes not necessarily from selling the top and buying back in, but from having bought the top in the first place instead of waiting and buying 50% more for the same cost. Personally I stopped buying at $34 and missed the whole rise to the mid $40's and didn't start buying again until the price dropped back to $35 (all in AUD) and ended up with a lot more ounces for doing so. I don't pretend to be a trader, just know not to buy into a mania like that.
Fair point ... accepted. But do you reckon you can consistenly pick when to stop buying?? What happens if the price pushed past $50 through to $80 and then "pulled back" down to $60? Would you still reckon you're a genius for having stopped buying at $34? Would be really interested next time we have another "mania run" to see when you officially stop buying ... will be even more interesting to hear when you stop buying when you actually stop - not after the fact! let's have a look and see how good you are next time around...
Please, picking the top and bottom need very good set of skills, observations and actions. you may call that luck. But plenty of arbitrage opportunity... heheh. even on flat or after falling prices, this is after the fact. there is still very certain profit to be made and if you know how.. , no I am not talking about shorting or paper stuff. talking about silver bullion coins/bars here. So by saying that you need to be able to sell closer to the high is none-sense, because you can buy it back at much lower cost. ( that is not a true statement) spread is such a 5%, in a > 35% price swing. come on. there is no need to actually sell near the top to even out the spread (opportunity cost) for a free ride! there are cross trades, paper into bars, or coins into paper which combination can be generated to give you good spread and arbitrage returns. In arbitrage we are not concern about risk anymore, but that does not mean it is risk free! anything can and do happen. You just need to be holding the RIGHT forms of silver and your location do play a part. Just find a need and fill it. :lol: Just be a provider rather than just thinking of taking away, you may have to explore the different kind of mind sets to released the beauty of a true silver stacker. Still learning...
I am not pretending to be a guru. You just had to look at the almost vertical chart to see it was in a short term bubble though. Yes it is a risk that worked out for me this time, and next time it might not, but that's a risk I am willing to take. As for knowing when I am stopping buying at the time instead of in hindsight, I know there are a couple of posts from about march talking about me stopping buying at about $33. None of which are particularly relevant to the point of whether opportunity cost is real or not.
This chart doesn't look very appealing at all and smells even worse. Especially that June period. Pfew! Source: http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com/
Picking the tops and bottoms is a mugs game. All you can do is make educated decisions and manage your risk. Clearly silver was getting toppy and too far ahead of itself and was due for a pull back. Anyone with a bit of thought would not have bought into such an overbought market. (unless your plan is to DCA which is different). My motto is to buy on pullbacks and not to chase the rallys, as we are all aware of in this market, its small and prone to large swings (read manipulations).
I dont care about trying to pick the highs or lows to buy and sell. When I tried to do this in the past I stuffed up and so that is one game I have given up and let smarter players try. I have only one attribute and that was to recognize a bull market in PM beginning in 2002. I accumulate slowly as I can afford and try my best to buy the dips. It keeps my average price down and then if I sold today I would make a good profit. I don't play the short term games - there is more to life. Too stressful. Anyway I feel safe having a good investment in PM rather than in shares, or paper money.
I've seen this chart before and it does not look right. The end of Dec should match up with start of Jan. Not saying June does not see a downturn, just pointing out that this chart can't be 100% right.
well no really ...what I can see is basically that by the start of every year it goes a bit higher than the year before . I could be wrong though, only my observation.
Iwonder if it got to do with the Christmas rally across all asset type from year to year? 37 years of averages is probably a bit too long imo. I'd like to see the seasonality for the last 3-5years, may look very different to that?
Saw this in MSM news today... provides an interesting perspective, never noticed that palladium was performing so poorly. Anyway, going to see if the Silver $33 support level holds, if it goes through then I would expect a further tanking of price.
I agree with Euphoria, Buy when you can... A few cents up and a few cents down...who cares.... I've seen the value of my holdings drop significantly.. I was upset but to get over it I doubled my Holdings, call me a fool but I have a target and I wont stop till i get there.. Watching the price closely... I want to triple my holdings soon I dont want little Dollars and Cents... I want a life changer..Real Shiny Money
Next best thing: http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html Go down to Yearly Silver Charts table. Will give you charts for each year. 2008 was an anomaly due to the so-called financial crisis. Pretty safe to say it will go higher at the end of this year like usual. I'm not good with spreadsheets but you can probably do it yourself using the figures (charts & data)
Its a key level for sure - but too early to say it has good support here... its only tested it once in this latest leg down. chart looks so sick its not funny dude seriously... I'll be very surprised if we dont see $30 in July.
everyone remember CONnectingdots1? he was guarenteeing the price wouldnt go below this level or close enough to it - he guaranteed it - so if anyone bought over this current price when it initially dropped and you end up losing on the value - make sure you visit CONnectingdots1 on youtube and claim your insurance
It's funny how an unrealised gain is counted but an unrealised loss isn't. The fact that one still holds the ounces in a losing position would be of little consolation to me. Silver is just the vehicle that represents a profit or loss. If those of us who focus on price and profit are only traders, then those who don't are only rock collectors. C
You measure your wealth in monopoly money. hope that continues to work for you. I'm happy to measure my wealth in rocks
And real estate investors are just soil collectors and fiat money believers are just paper collectors?
