WOOWWWW THERE, WHAT'S GOING ON?
- Thread starter Lurkalot
- Start date
Thats what I would like to know, pump & dump maybe before the next Greece fiasco/side-show
http://thedailygold.com/long-term-technical-outlook-for-gold-silver/
Gold has consistently made impulsive advances that were digested by multi-quarter corrections and eventually followed by a breakout and new impulsive advance. Following the last major breakout in late 2009, Gold enjoyed an extended impulsive advance that lasted two years. Previous impulsive advances lasted less than a year. Gold, having bottomed, remains well entrenched in another consolidation that is 12 months old. As we can see from the chart, previous consolidations lasted 16 to 20 months.
Source:thedailygold.com
It is important to note that previously Gold, within a year was able to rally back near the recent impulsive high. In other words, Gold is currently in a much weaker state relative to past consolidations. Gold will need to rally back to $1800 or $1900 and that would be followed by a multi-month consolidation that would lead to a breakout. Conservatively speaking, over the next 12 months we could see a rally back to $1900 and a final consolidation.
Photonaware
Active Member
JulieW said:
Fantastic post but in Simpleton English does this mean NOW is a good time to buy ?
This might give you a better idea.
http://www.macrotrends.org/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-since-1915
http://www.macrotrends.org/1333/gold-and-silver-prices-since-1915
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Guest
Guest
Photonaware said:
If you adopted the same buying ideology all seasoned stackers advise - long physical, cost average - then *any* time is a 'good' time to buy.
Trying to 'time the market' in the most heavily manipulated commodities market in the entire world is just gambling at best, sheer folly at worst.
If you already have your foundations realised on the end game, then the day to day movements don't really matter.
Photonaware
Active Member
auspm said:
I could not agree more about adopting a cost averaging strategy but with all these wonderful graphics we have the tools to make a fortune !
Lies and statistics ring in my head and when we cannot predict the weather precisely despite billion dollar computers then I tend not to look at all these charts comparing ratios that all look good in hindsight. Back to the charts - is this thumbs up for diving into gold, holding, or getting out? The traffic light signal system would be simpler, green for buy, amber hold and red sell. What is the colour now armed with all the stats ?
How did this thread switch from silver to gold anyhow ?
auspm said:
Sorry, tried to bite my tongue, but......
It is always easier to dump on something rather than bother to learn about it.
Lack of understanding of a quite profitable method should not be mistaken with the delusion that it is bogus or illigitimate.
Members on this very forum have repetedly demonstrated that sheer folly is the notion that any time is a good time to buy.
Okay.. minutes of last Fed meeting to be released in the next day or so. Price spike probably due to speculators betting on QE3 or similar to be announced (I don't think so)
Yippe-Ki-Ya
New Member
Photonaware said:
As a complete "chart" moron i'd have to stick my neck out here and say it's a good time to BUY ...
savvie??
Photonaware said:
plain english -
In previous occasions when gold has dropped in spot, it usually takes around or less than a year to get back to the level before it dropped. It then consolidates for about 16 to 20 month at around the same level and then sky rockets.
This time around, it has taken longer than a year to get back to the original level... meaning it hasn't even gotten to the 16 - 20 month consolidation period yet..
I guess if you believe it is still following the same pattern as previous corrections, it will get to our previous high at 1900ish and then consolidate for a while, then sky rocket.
Therefore following the pattern, right now is a good time to buy as we are close to the bottom of this leg..?
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wrcmad said:
I stand by my statement.
I assume your demostration relates to people who bought at $48 and are now feeling the pinch, assuming they made a bad choice and sold out at a loss?
That in no way undermines the position - in fact, it reinforces it.
LONG physical is just that. You buy and hold for the LONG haul.
I've stated a number of times on this forum (to the angst of some I've no doubt) that after $20 Ag we'd see a lot of opportunists come in to ride the bull run.
It's simply a fact of economic life that a lot of the cash comes into the market near the top and then complain about retraces making the investment choice a 'bad one'.
I maintain that if you were here simply to ride the bull market on commodities (like property and every other damn bubble out of the central banking system in the last 40 years) then you either miscalculated the fundamentals of precious metals purchasing or were naive enough to think you could get a free ride on the most manipulated commodities market in the world today.
My position is in no way undermined by the fact a lot of impatient hot cash hit the market in it's 40s and people were upset silver didn't go 'to da moon'.
If you bought silver at $48 per oz, guess what? You still have that silver unless you panicked and sold out at a loss.
Take the advice of a stacker and be here for the long haul.
You will absolutely not regret that decision long term if you do.
Yes, I was referring to those who bought high.auspm said:
Wrong. This is a fallacy. The notion that you have not made a loss until you sell has brought many individuals and corporations undone (lehman Bros? ::/).auspm said:
This flawed philosophy is often used to rationalise and excuse an investment mistake.
Once in the red, you are sitting on a loss as measured in opportunity, $ or anything else.
No matter which way you want to look at it, you are backward in oz's.
^^^ The exception of course is if there were other values not related to its sale price embodied in the reason why you bought it. Many subtle and not-so-subtle reasons, but taking a car as an obvious example, even though a car loses, say, half it's value by driving it off the lot you haven't "lost" half your expenditure. Hence, 100% agree for paper silver but not necessarily for physical.
(Just being picky
)
(Just being picky
)
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wrcmad said:
The question of opportunity is only relevent if you're not holding long.
I'm holding long.
If you're going to play the short ratio or spot game in metals, you are either a gambler or crazy IMHO.
Buying $48 Silver isn't a 'mistake' IMHO. Holding onto paper currency is.
Different paradigms here.
auspm said:
?????
The loss of opportunity to have purchased more oz's for the same dollar amount spent stands in all cases - long-term or short-term, physical or paper, liquidated or not.
In this scenario, you are backward in oz's no matter what your timeframe - and interestingly, this lost opportunity is magnified as price rises.
If this wasn't the case, then stackers wouldn't bother focusing on spot, cause it wouldn't matter anyway.
Any alternative way of viewing this is an act of denial.