Why silver will go to $500/oz

valuecreator

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
Silver Price Forecast Based On China's Viral Demand


By Vronsky
February 26, 2014

My research leads me to believe exploding Chinese investment demand during the next six years will drive the price of silver to over $500/oz, which will in turn fuel the price of gold to $8000/oz. And here are the rationale for this sterling prediction.

Chinese are the world's Top Savers


China saves the most money in absolute terms. In 2010 China saved an estimated $4.6 trillion. For those who do not have a concept for this monumental amount, it is $4,600,000,000,000. In sharp contrast, the United States, whose economy is nearly double the size of China's, only saved an estimated $2.8 trillion. Moreover, Chinese on average put away 30.6 percent of their disposable income, amounting to 6.9 trillion yuan in total household savings in China in 2012, estimates Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in Hong Kong.

China expert Orville Schell said the country's savings may come as a surprise to outsiders. "They see this exuberant consumer culture and this explosion of shopping malls and this expression of consumerism that even puts the western countries to shame," he said.

the rest here:
http://www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/silver-price-forecast-based-china’s-viral-demand
 
Bitcoin went to >1200 and my bread still costs $3... anything is possible because humans are soooo dumb!
 
thatguy said:
Bitcoin went to >1200 and my bread still costs $3... anything is possible because humans are soooo dumb!

LoL is see where you're coming from and you're correct but the irony is that humans are multidimensional creative geniuses
 
Mints around the world had record consumer grade gold and silver coin and bar sales in 2013, yet the spot prices dropped dramatically.
 
Load of Bullion said:
Mints around the world had record consumer grade gold and silver coin and bar sales in 2013, yet the spot prices dropped dramatically.
This screams "oversupply" to me. And it could take a long time to correct itself.
 
Yes....it is a problem.
If the mints had no problem sourcing the silver to fill record demand on a falling silver price then we have a problem.
Disregard price.......it is the amount of silver that was converted that is an issue. It means that this amount will probably be available each year for many years to come unless there is a significant reduction in mining. This in turn means that demand has to equal the record production each year to use up the silver that is obviously available.
 
wrcmad said:
Load of Bullion said:
Mints around the world had record consumer grade gold and silver coin and bar sales in 2013, yet the spot prices dropped dramatically.
This screams "oversupply" to me. And it could take a long time to correct itself.

It does indeed, and that is a problem.

However, production costs are on the rise so I don't think we'll see any massive fall in price.
It also means next to nothing if investors are given a reason to love gold again, that's always on the back of my mind.


Until gold gets some proper love though, i'm out.
 
Yep, that hungry Chinese Silver demand has done wonders for the silver price hasnt it. $500 will be a piece of cake :P
 
Aureus said:
However, production costs are on the rise so I don't think we'll see any massive fall in price.
Any source for that rising production cost?
In the case silver production cost matters quite more than in case gold, nevertheless there is now about 1 Goz extra as 'private' monetary stock, if we subtract the govt sales of about 500 Moz during the past decade, there is an 'extra' of 500 Moz silver, a half annual total supply, that will be sold in the future, and this stock is no production so ignores production cost.
There is another element, being a size of a market (read: amount money in it) relative to its competing markets. Gold, silver, dollar, euro, pound, etc are monetary competitors so if silvers price level appears as a lower risk than others, then silvers market can drain off those other monetary markets.
I see alot reason for sideways for a further couple years. I hope to add alot silver over the period, and the lower the price the more. Look at those that recently bought at $22. They could have bought at $19.5 too, we saw enough occasions, but they didn't. Despite all the learnt lessons, we still see those upspikes. And the Comex position that can be seen as a price risk reflection (since it's mainly a hedging environment) saw decade recordlows. So I think this $19 price level can hold. ETF shareholders appear to me as the highest price risk at the moment. Their gold equivalents dumped big time during 2013 (over half their entire stock), but the silver ones didn't. I've read the statement/theory that this could be due to a different 'nature' in 'investors', gold ETFs being mainly large / systemic funds that like to go hand in hand with central banks / central planning, silver ETF's being many small fish, trying to escape the formers theft. If I look at the historical behaviour of silver ETF's, it seems to confirm this, for ex, during the highdays/period of the 2008 crisis, IShares shareholders also kept their silver shares.
The only 'short time' / 'highfrequent' buy/dumper tends to be the Comex side, and that's why I keep an eye on them, as to know when to NOT buy. For the rest, the others, well, it's like it is, if they all sell their stacks then the price goes down with it, until they're sold out haha.
 
Ernster said:
Yep, that hungry Chinese Silver demand has done wonders for the silver price hasnt it. $500 will be a piece of cake :P
There are 2 issues with $500 silver.
1) The statement ignores the rest of the world, because it's purchasing power that matters, not $, and that's not talked about, alike it would be a 'hura we're rich'.
2) It requires people to pay $500 for an ounce silver. Anyone here willing? Anyone here knowing some1 willing? Should I replace the word 'willing' with 'dumb'? Because, that's what it comes down to. A $500 silver price in aboves interpretation, is more an insult to people than anything else.
 
I'd like to state the following:

1) if silver becomes too expensive, some industries might turn to cheaper alternatives - even if they would be worse

2) the devaluated dollar could potentially bring any price sky high!

3) Chinese industrial production is quite modest, their GDP growth has been shrinking, so I reckon there's a high chance that the consumption of silver will go down as well
 
Pirocco said:
Aureus said:
However, production costs are on the rise so I don't think we'll see any massive fall in price.
Any source for that rising production cost?
In the case silver production cost matters quite more than in case gold, nevertheless there is now about 1 Goz extra as 'private' monetary stock, if we subtract the govt sales of about 500 Moz during the past decade, there is an 'extra' of 500 Moz silver, a half annual total supply, that will be sold in the future, and this stock is no production so ignores production cost.
There is another element, being a size of a market (read: amount money in it) relative to its competing markets. Gold, silver, dollar, euro, pound, etc are monetary competitors so if silvers price level appears as a lower risk than others, then silvers market can drain off those other monetary markets.
I see alot reason for sideways for a further couple years. I hope to add alot silver over the period, and the lower the price the more. Look at those that recently bought at $22. They could have bought at $19.5 too, we saw enough occasions, but they didn't. Despite all the learnt lessons, we still see those upspikes. And the Comex position that can be seen as a price risk reflection (since it's mainly a hedging environment) saw decade recordlows. So I think this $19 price level can hold. ETF shareholders appear to me as the highest price risk at the moment. Their gold equivalents dumped big time during 2013 (over half their entire stock), but the silver ones didn't. I've read the statement/theory that this could be due to a different 'nature' in 'investors', gold ETFs being mainly large / systemic funds that like to go hand in hand with central banks / central planning, silver ETF's being many small fish, trying to escape the formers theft. If I look at the historical behaviour of silver ETF's, it seems to confirm this, for ex, during the highdays/period of the 2008 crisis, IShares shareholders also kept their silver shares.
The only 'short time' / 'highfrequent' buy/dumper tends to be the Comex side, and that's why I keep an eye on them, as to know when to NOT buy. For the rest, the others, well, it's like it is, if they all sell their stacks then the price goes down with it, until they're sold out haha.

Multiple legitimate sources, but I only have time to educate myself on the matter.
Not in the business of writing books on a public forum, and that is literally what it would take to prove the point.
 
Pirocco said:
2) It requires people to pay $500 for an ounce silver. Anyone here willing? Anyone here knowing some1 willing? Should I replace the word 'willing' with 'dumb'? Because, that's what it comes down to. A $500 silver price in aboves interpretation, is more an insult to people than anything else.
20 years ago
the man was asked If he would buy gold for $500 - his reply was "I'm not dumb"
I wonder how many people were insulted in such a way back then ... and how they feel right now :lol:
 
silver $500 :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
worldbubble said:
Pirocco said:
2) It requires people to pay $500 for an ounce silver. Anyone here willing? Anyone here knowing some1 willing? Should I replace the word 'willing' with 'dumb'? Because, that's what it comes down to. A $500 silver price in aboves interpretation, is more an insult to people than anything else.
20 years ago
the man was asked If he would buy gold for $500 - his reply was "I'm not dumb"
I wonder how many people were insulted in such a way back then ... and how they feel right now :lol:
You compare a price that multiplied 500/20=25 times, with a price that multiplied 2.6 times.
You selected one side of the equation. The other side is other prices. Why should silvers price 25-fold, and other prices not?
Just a couple question.
 
Have you thought of the industrial and pharmaceutical uses of silver? Silver is used in air conditioners for example and has good conductivity and could be used in place of gold as a conductor, so one possible use of silver which would increase its value is industrial. Or should I say an increased industrial requirement for silver.
 
If it hits 500 $ per ounce without severe currency devaluation, if food prices and the USD pretty much stay the same as today, then lots of stackers will become rich!
 
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