When Will the Collapse Happen in Australia?

E

errol43

New Member
Silver Stacker
Not even the best financial gurus will even hazard a guess as to when this will happen..Meanwhile the banking crowd say it will never happen again and so say the politicians.

Now I feel sure that all members on SS would dearly love to know if and when the banks find themselves in the shit in Australia. Well in 08/09 two of our major banks and the Australian Federal Reserve bank were bailed out by the US Federal Reserve!

Australia was very lucky that the Australian economy at that time was in a strong position but even then the ASX fell by at least 40%. Will we be so fortunate next time?

IMO the Australian economy is not in as good a position as 2007. Here is why... The mining industry is not as profitable as in 07, our car industry is slowly dying and therefore we will have to import all cars therfore our balance of payments will be in much worse position. Also we have to pay for our petrol and oil imports.. I can see a rapid decline in our balance of payments...If the AU$ declines the situation will get even worse!

Now here is the real danger! The Australian housing market has never been stronger,thanks to the extra borrowings of Australian banks to keep the RE market in Sydney and Melbourne on the boil...The banks in Australia borrow short and lend long...This is fine unless the supply of short term loans dry up from the US and also providing interest rates don't spike. Where will the Australian banks get their short term loans from then?

Therefore if you want to know when it is about to happen (shtf in Australia) watch the US share market and the US$..and also the banks in both Europe and the USA.

I think that many people in Australia will suffer terrible financial hardship if interest rates go up sharply and like Robert Kiyosaki says your home will no longer be an asset but a noose around your neck.

Can we as a nation avoid a financial crisis..Maybe the government could put another 2.5% on the GST and save all the money in a national future fund only to be used as short term loans to our banks therefore lessening our dependence on short term loans from the US to our banks.

It is better late than never!

Regards Errol 43
 
My gut feeling is STILL that the trigger will be pulled in the Sovereign Bond markets.

That will rapidly spread to the share markets and so on. It defies my logic that this situation can go on forever, or in fact much longer.

NIL real idea when all that will play out!

JMNHO

OC
 
Ever notice in the Bible that God waits for the passing of the faithful generation before bring judgement upon the nation. As a kindness to them.

The 'greatest generation' is almost past. So too with it the foundations of prosperity and the blessing of God.

The seventies saw massive reduction in Sunday School attendence, the removal of 'Lord's prayer' and 'God save the Queen' from public schools.

Here we are redefining marriage, which will be the marker and epicenter moment of collapse and misery.
 
CriticalSilver said:
Strauss-Howe Generational Cycles Theory is a good place from which to consider periods of likely crisis.

Saeculum Dates
-------------+-----------------
High 19461964
Awakening 19641984
Unraveling 19842008
Crisis 20082029?

If you combine with other cycles you might zero in on 2025 as the year of crisis climax.
Click to expand...

P.J. Anderson predicts 25/26 as well.

Very smart guy.
 
Old Codger said:
My gut feeling is STILL that the trigger will be pulled in the Sovereign Bond markets.

That will rapidly spread to the share markets and so on. It defies my logic that this situation can go on forever, or in fact much longer.

NIL real idea when all that will play out!

JMNHO

OC
Click to expand...


willie102516-3.png

Source: home-based.com
 
That's where interest rates went soon after my wife and I took out our first mortgage. It's the principal reason why it took two salaries to make the payments on the smallest, cheapest house we could find - despite we boomers 'having it easy'.
 
JulieW said:
CriticalSilver said:
Strauss-Howe Generational Cycles Theory is a good place from which to consider periods of likely crisis.

Saeculum Dates
-------------+-----------------
High 19461964
Awakening 19641984
Unraveling 19842008
Crisis 20082029?

If you combine with other cycles you might zero in on 2025 as the year of crisis climax.
Click to expand...

P.J. Anderson predicts 25/26 as well.

Very smart guy.
Click to expand...


Further to this, Daily Reckoning quotes him today from their current future/doomsday conference with Rickards, Rogers, Gowdie et al.

Very bouyant and optimistic (at least for 10 years) if you're looking for something that isn't doom and gloom.

today Jim Rickards warned of the coming collapse of the monetary system.

'I absolutely and fundamentally do not believe this,' exclaimed Phil. 'And I don't want to stand up here and give you another set of opinionsI want to teach you how to understand the structure of the economy.'

Western economies exhibit an 18-year real estate cycle.

It's this cycle that underpins financial markets. As Phil says

'Generally this cycles out as 14 years up and four years down.

'A study of US history, for example, reveals a very clear (average) 18 cycle in US real estate prices, measured from trough to trough or peak to peak.

'The actual cycle has never been shorter than 17 years, never longer than 21. According to my research, the Australian market follows the US.

'The good news is that once you understand the real estate cycle, you can forecast it. History, I assure you, does repeat. And if you can forecast correctly, you can make money.'

So what does Phil mean by a real estate cycle?

'It's how the economy will move and why over time. You'll have a guide as to when to buy real estate and when to stay out of the market. You'll understand much more about the stock market too.

'Not only has the real estate cycle been historically consistent at about 18 years in duration, each cycle has unfolded in a highly regular and consistent manner.'

In 2005 Phil created a clock that gives us a visual diagram of how the repeat plays out, based on his research of US real estate (land) beginning from 1800.

This was his main message for those in the audience at The Great Repression

'If you think stocks and property are going to crash, YOU'RE DEAD WRONG.

'Once you make the paradigm shift, then you know you have to plan for a real estate cycleit becomes a lot easier to forecast the economy in which we all live.

No fear

Phil's talk was a real break from overwhelmingly fearful message of most of the other presenters.

And fear, said Phil, is the biggest obstacle to successful investing.

'It paralyses you into inaction. And you do not want to be an investor with fear. What we all trying to do is maximise our earnings. Once you know that there must be a real estate cycle, you can start planning.'

'We are now at 9-o-clock in the United States.

'After a bust, the rent of established buildings it goes up. Then makes it cheaper build more. Then more credit follows.

'This is where we are at now.'

'If history is to repeat, the clock says we have another 10 years to buildand what will follow the biggest boom you have ever seen.'
Click to expand...

So go to dailyreckoning.com.au if you want to pursue this forecast of course. Personally I've looked into his work a bit and I only wish I'd read him in 2003 - or 2012!
 
'If history is to repeat, the clock says we have another 10 years to buildand what will follow the biggest boom you have ever seen.'

Here in Australia, we're seeing some of the highest housing prices ever. A unit next to us in WOLLONGONG (not Sydney) went for over 600K. Not a penthouse. No land. Not waterfront. A unit. So, am I to expect there won't be a "bust" or even a decline to realistic prices?
I just find it incredibly hard to believe that we have 10 years to get into the market before "the biggest boom you have ever seen".
From what I've read, prices in Brisbane have dropped and so have those in mining areas - of which my brother in law got caught up in believing all the hype (even his real estate agent wife believed it all). So how are we ignoring up to 40% drop in house prices.

i just don't believe housing will continue upwards.
 
Who's ignoring it? It's been incessantly talked about through all sorts of media for more than a decade. Bubble fatigue?

Brisbane prices for what and where have dropped? Too broad of a statement but for the Brisbane LGA, prices are up 1.3% on the June quarter to reach a new high.
 
"A Local Government Area breakdown shows Ipswich, where house prices grew by 0.5 per cent, was the strongest growth region over the quarter.
Logan and Moreton Bay recorded 1.9 per cent and 1.1 per cent price declines, respectively, Brisbane City and Redlands remained flat." Quelch. J - Property journalist, 27/10/16

"The backtrack in house prices was a speed bump in a strong year of growth. The September quarter is always a soft time for Brisbane's house prices, and the end of the year is expected to be a lot stronger," Wilson. A - Domain Group chief economist.

Edit to add link - http://www.domain.com.au/news/brisb...op-domain-house-price-report-20161026-gs97pb/
 
I am damned if I can see Australia and the world, going another 10 years without a super size GFC2.

IMPOSSIBLE!

OC
 
Anderson's RE clock actually has a slight downturn and levelling off circa 2018, followed by a parabolic rise to 2026, when there is a massive correction (50%?) with the cycle restarting in 2030.
 
What about this huge U.S election thats only one week away?

20 TRILLION dollars of debt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



p.s Yes you read that correctly it is Trillions not Billions. ( I STILL cannot get my head around this insane amount of debt).
 
TheEnd said:
What about this huge U.S election thats only one week away?

20 TRILLION dollars of debt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



p.s Yes you read that correctly it is Trillions not Billions. ( I STILL cannot get my head around this insane amount of debt).
Click to expand...

Plus unfunded liabilities = another 30 trillion (social security etc)
 
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