Whats your long term view (and short) on Gold and silver?

H

hussman

Member
I own gold and silver because its a hedge against inflation, a preservation on wealth and most importantly its Shiny!!!

I've also always believed that one day the world will return to true money (gold and silver) and that this will drive up the prices of the physical metal ALLOT. How much you say........Hows longs a piece of string? Not too mention by the 80's inflation rate gold should have been at $2500, and today some say $8800.

Anyways over the long term I expect both gold and silver to perform really well with all the information I've read and been listening too. However over the short term im not so sure as to what to expect.

What do you all think about the long and short term performance of PM and what are your opinions???

FYI (Long term = over 1 year, Short term = under 1 year.)
 
Short term (1-3 years) Push down, squeeze and try to keep PMs suppressed so the fiat system looks safe.
Long term ( 2-5 years) Gold close to parabolic and forming the basis of a new money.

Unless the governments have worked out how to use Bit Coin to their own advantage, in which case we are slaves and gold will just mean we hold a few more social credits than our fellow peasants at the electronic changeover. In which case gold will be useful in the underground barter economy.
 
Gold up but a rocky road,they will try to destroy gold
If things improve,silver up,otherwise silver down.
 
It has been well documented that Gold keeps pace with inflation and rarely explodes in a bubble. Now our entire civilization is powered by oil and there has been a direct correlation between oil prices and gold prices ever since this dependency became intrenched. In the 2 decades between 1980 and 2000 gold kept pace with inflation, kept pace with oil, and both stayed at the same price levels basically. (which makes you wonder about the gains in the other markets over that period... Bubbles fueled by cheap oil?)

In 2000 the price of oil began to climb and climb as we reached the peak in production worldwide in 2005, just like in the 1970's oil shocks. Gold has likewise climbed, keeping pace with inflation, keeping pace with oil. 3 years ago RE stagnated and begun to fall here, all over the globe it is falling. Also equity markets have fallen, hard commodities, Phase III GTHO's and technology products. These have all fallen in price over the past few years, only a few things have kept climbing and oil and gold/silver are among them. Other things have risen, food, electricity, etc. But these are all heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

If gold is not made a reserve currency again, it's value stabilized by government decree (at a high price) then I see the price of gold going up and up and up as more and more people around the globe seek it as a store of wealth. Most people in the west have no concept of gold as wealth preservation but that will change as all other asset classes continue to fall I think. I could be wrong though, the TV controls the minds of most westerners and it could well keep them in the dark about gold's action, as it has for the last 10 years.

The basic problem as I see it is the people around the world have made tens of trillions of paper promises to themselves based on cheap energy and that cheap energy is now gone, obviously! Probably forever! That 500 Aussie dollars in someones super fund actually stands for jet fuel while on their retirement holidays, outboard engines for the boat they want to buy and coal for the heating and lighting of their house until they die of old age. In other words for REAL things. But there are not enough REAL things in the earth to satisfy all the demands being made by the digital and paper accounts. The baby-boomers around the planet are retiring, the biggest group of soon to be non-productive people in history, and they are all beginning to sell their shares and other assets to buy jet fuel and outboard motors.

If I could, if it was practical, I would buy an oil well or a coal field, but it isn't, so the next best thing is gold and silver. I really have no idea what it will be worth in 25 years but I am very sure it will be worth more than the equivalent amount of shares, or that much house up a cul-de-sac in the stranded suburbs. Where the road is decaying, the water mains are bursting and the cost in fuel to get to work and back is a third what the person their earns.

PS. If you haven't read it yet, download the white paper "Shocking the Suburbs" from the Griffith university database. If it's even half true a lot of housing assets are in real trouble.
 
hussman said:
I own gold and silver because its a hedge against inflation, a preservation on wealth and most importantly its Shiny!!!

I've also always believed that one day the world will return to true money (gold and silver) and that this will drive up the prices of the physical metal ALLOT. How much you say........Hows longs a piece of string? Not too mention by the 80's inflation rate gold should have been at $2500, and today some say $8800.

Anyways over the long term I expect both gold and silver to perform really well with all the information I've read and been listening too. However over the short term im not so sure as to what to expect.

What do you all think about the long and short term performance of PM and what are your opinions???

FYI (Long term = over 1 year, Short term = under 1 year.)
Click to expand...

The gold price in 1980 of $850 was enough to fully back the US dollar. i.e. the value of the US gold was (10?) higher than the currency supply. They could have fixed gold at $850 an ounce and gone back to a gold standard.
I am not sure of the exact percentage over, I think it was somewhere in the 10% realm.
 
At some stage the powers that be (higher than government level) will be forced to either aggressively compete with gold (I suggest high teen interest rates, maybe even as high as low 20's), or they can adopt a metal standard. Until then, Fiat will decrease in value against Precious Metals which we will see in the form of higher fiat prices for PM's.
 
So you want a long term prediction on the value of gold or silver based upon a doomed fiat system? It's irrelevent. :)

But anyway, gold and silver will retain or indeed reach its true value once fiat backed by political promises or a manipulating self-serving economic bloc is dead.

So what will gold and silver be worth in 10 years?

Gold = 100 units of currency per ounce.

Silver = 2 units of currency per ounce.

So what will gold and silver be worth in 100 years.

Gold = 100 units of currency per ounce.

Silver = 2 units of currency per ounce.
 
mmm....shiney! said:
So you want a long term prediction on the value of gold or silver based upon a doomed fiat system? It's irrelevent. :)

But anyway, gold and silver will retain or indeed reach its true value once fiat backed by political promises or a manipulating self-serving economic bloc is dead.

So what will gold and silver be worth in 10 years?

Gold = 100 units of currency per ounce.

Silver = 2 units of currency per ounce.

So what will gold and silver be worth in 100 years.

Gold = 100 units of currency per ounce.

Silver = 2 units of currency per ounce.
Click to expand...
Are you saying that gold will be 100 of the new dollar whenever its revalued ? & silver will be $2 ?. Correct me if im wrong shiney but im lost.
 
renovator said:
mmm....shiney! said:
So you want a long term prediction on the value of gold or silver based upon a doomed fiat system? It's irrelevent. :)

But anyway, gold and silver will retain or indeed reach its true value once fiat backed by political promises or a manipulating self-serving economic bloc is dead.

So what will gold and silver be worth in 10 years?

Gold = 100 units of currency per ounce.

Silver = 2 units of currency per ounce.

So what will gold and silver be worth in 100 years.

Gold = 100 units of currency per ounce.

Silver = 2 units of currency per ounce.
Click to expand...
Are you saying that gold will be 100 of the new dollar whenever its revalued ? & silver will be $2 ?. Correct me if im wrong shiney but im lost.
Click to expand...

Yes :)

I'd choose 100 because it's easy to work with and silver will reamain less valuable by a factor of 50. If I was a Pom I'd probably choose some random number according to how many litres of milk my Guernsey yields every Tuesday, say 12.

And hopefully it will remain so for eternity - but it won't. One day governments will again begin the debasement of the currency (inflation) in order to save or make money.

The reason I say that is because it's pointless trying to quantify the value of gold (and silver to nearly the same extent), which has intrinsic value based upon it's scarcity, beauty, malleability and longevity in terms of a monetary system which has a value based upon nothing more than the green button on a photocopier or some electronically traded future commodity.
 
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