Trying to understand....

mmissinglink

mmissinglink

Active Member
I'm trying to understand the logic of some stackers who claim that the reason that the spot is so low is because of the paper manipulation which they claim is going on almost systematically these days. Yet, at the same time, some of these stackers claim all the time that silver is on the verge of moving up dramatically, very soon, and for a long time due to, among a couple of factors, supply and demand. But they just told you that silver gets manipulated regularly so why would those who manipulate regularly to drop the price all of a sudden "forget" to manipulate and let all the work of previous manipulation be for naught? If in fact the manipulation is being done, as some stackers argue, so that the manipulators can crash the price to such a low that few want to hold silver, then why would they stop manipulating any time soon?

It's not a logical argument some stackers are using as far as I can see. But maybe you have a different take on this?
 
you have missed a key step

Stackers see silver market manipulated by imaginary paper
Stackers are expecting the manipulated silver market racket to end due to a run on paper
Stackers expect supply and demand and the real price of silver gets set by a fair market after the manipulation has ended
 
excellent question... for gold they could manipulate it to $0 and get away with it as they feel no losses. Silver on the other hand... ever tried to make a iPhone5 with paper silver... or copper even?
 
I dont know if silver will reach its full potential I always plan to have a stack as a currency hedge but eventually plan to switch into another asset class most likely property.
Im personally am not a too the moon kinda guy. I hope im wrong.
 
volrathy said:
thatguy said:
excellent question... for gold they could manipulate it to $0 and get away with it as they feel no losses. Silver on the other hand... ever tried to make a iPhone5 with paper silver... or copper even?
Click to expand...

doesn't solar cells use up 50 million ounces + per year as well

quick google

http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/silver-in-technology/silver-in-green/solar-energy/

100 million per year in 2015 expected
Click to expand...
Yes precisely, industrial demand is the base to which they cannot manipulate silver past. And due to GSR trades, gold base is implied also.

Industrial demand is linked to mining cost as indirectly as inventory allows. Artificially inflating inventory via paper is a bandaid fix to this issue
 
"But they just told you that silver gets manipulated regularly so why would those who manipulate regularly to drop the price all of a sudden "forget" to manipulate and let all the work of previous manipulation be for naught?"

Although this doesn't answer your question - it probably is relevant.

I don't think manipulators would forget - but, they sure might change from the short game to the long game - and there is some evidence they are willing to try both sides.

A stacker purist usually believes that at some stage all funnybugger games are up and history will repeat.

If that is true - and I, for one believe that - then sooner or later paper games will go arse up and we will be left with tradition - and that means gold and silver - not eft, not stocks, not bonds, not real estate, definitely not cash - ONLY portable, hidable, culturally valuable stores of wealth.

There really are only two games in town - gold and silver - and silver is to bloody heavy.

The only times in history when some things are more valuable are xxxxxxxxx extreme crisis - bullets, food, water and air - but, those times are thankfully very rare.

Pretty much any other time a heap of gold will see you ok - even if you have to buy your way from one country to another to cash up.

Sure, you always need a little luck, but with enough gold you can outrun wars, tyranny, laws - pretty much anything - real estate, stocks etc. really just slow you up or you get done easily.

Gold is the go - manipulation or not, their time is limited.


Gazza
 
Hi Gazza,

yes I understand about paper manipulators possibly changing from a short to long game but the crucial point I'm puzzled by is why some stackers believe that a huge turn-around is always imminent when in reality, if it really is the paper manipulators as the reason why spot is dropping, why would they not not manipulate till they drop it down further for another 2 or more years? That would benefit them a whole lot more if their end game was bull silver.

What I'm getting at is maybe the price dropping has very little to do with paper manipulation and more to do with demand drop. Another member here, in a different thread, posted some industry figures which saw that industrial demand over the past X years has been actually down for silver. Maybe silver is not the indispensable industrial metal we were led to believe by some. There's lots of buzz around lately about a new material called graphene which could possibly replace silver in some areas of industrial use particularly as a conductor but maybe elsewhere.

I certainly think physical precious metals have a place in my asset accumulation, but I think like many things, there are those who spew any and all sorts of dishonest or illogical rhetoric, pumping silver for their own personal benefit and for no other reason. Instead of being honest, some of these permabulls are nothing more than scammers. On the other hand, there are plenty of honest stackers who tell it like it is about metals, their decline in industrial demand, and the serious potential risks.

Btw Gazza, do you feel that the silver/gold ratio will see long term increasing making gold a better investment now than silver? Thanks for any insight into this.
 
mmissinglink said:
What I'm getting at is maybe the price dropping has very little to do with paper manipulation and more to do with demand drop.
Click to expand...

And it went up from $10 to $48 because physical demand quadrupled ?
 
To mmissing link...I think it is a healthy thing to question how much influence the paper price has on silver. I agree that there is manipulation but I am far from convinced that the downturn in price is part of a concerted effort of a small group of manipulators intent on controlling the world.....Silver is a market like any other....what will they say when silver hits new highs in time????.....is that the manipulators???? If you truly believe that the market is openly manipulated then it would be foolish to take part in it.
 
Sargeant Argent said:
I dont know if silver will reach its full potential I always plan to have a stack as a currency hedge but eventually plan to switch into another asset class most likely property.
Im personally am not a too the moon kinda guy. I hope im wrong.
Click to expand...

This is my plan as well, to eventually exchange a lot of my stack back to money in order to purchase property. I only like silver so much because the prices, if we were near highs I wouldn't be buying silver. There are many better assets that generate an income.
 
mmissinglink said:
why would they not not manipulate till they drop it down further for another 2 or more years? That would benefit them a whole lot more if their end game was bull silver.
Click to expand...

I hope it is being manipulated, and I hope it goes even further down. Then we can all accumulate even more super cheap Silver! :D

mmissinglink said:
do you feel that the silver/gold ratio will see long term increasing making gold a better investment now than silver?
Click to expand...

I think silver has far more potential to the upside. Personally I would like gold to pull back a little further before I would consider purchasing. And even if it does I probably won't as I don't have enough capital to start acquiring gold, plus I prefer silver as a metal, the aesthetics as well as industrial uses of it. Gold has very little industrial use, although I believe it is used to plate copper wiring so that the copper does not react with air, a cheaper alternative to using pure silver cables.
 
Silver, for jewelry is something like 4% of all use.
Gold, on the other hand, is something like 75%.

Silver is the best conductor of heat and electricity of any metal on the periodic table.
Silver will play an increasingly larger role in solar technology.
Silver has MANY applications with an finite amount available.

For me, someday Silver will be worth more than Gold. It's just better at a lot of things, and will be increasingly more rare.
 
pdkbffwleo said:
Silver, for jewelry is something like 4% of all use.
Gold, on the other hand, is something like 75%.

Silver is the best conductor of heat and electricity of any metal on the periodic table.
Silver will play an increasingly larger role in solar technology.
Silver has MANY applications with an finite amount available.

For me, someday Silver will be worth more than Gold. It's just better at a lot of things, and will be increasingly more rare.
Click to expand...

I agree that this is def a possibility. Gold just has a perceived value, where as silver has a lot of practical uses that give it real value.
 
mmissinglink said:
I'm trying to understand the logic of some stackers who claim that the reason that the spot is so low is because of the paper manipulation which they claim is going on almost systematically these days. Yet, at the same time, some of these stackers claim all the time that silver is on the verge of moving up dramatically, very soon, and for a long time due to, among a couple of factors, supply and demand. But they just told you that silver gets manipulated regularly so why would those who manipulate regularly to drop the price all of a sudden "forget" to manipulate and let all the work of previous manipulation be for naught? If in fact the manipulation is being done, as some stackers argue, so that the manipulators can crash the price to such a low that few want to hold silver, then why would they stop manipulating any time soon?

It's not a logical argument some stackers are using as far as I can see. But maybe you have a different take on this?
Click to expand...
:LOOP
<Joe> buys silver
Silver Price Rises
<Joe> The Silver Price Will Go To Da Moon! BUY!
Silver Price Rises Further
<Joe> Sells, grabs the profit, buys some freebies and holds some dollars.
Silver Price Drops
<Joe> OMG Paper Manipulation! Comex! JP Morgan! Cartel!
Silver Price Drops Further
<Joe> We Gonna See $0! SELL!
<Joe> Buys silver.
Silver Price Rises
Goto LOOP

The question now is, where in this story is that 'stacker'?
 
trew said:
mmissinglink said:
What I'm getting at is maybe the price dropping has very little to do with paper manipulation and more to do with demand drop.
Click to expand...

And it went up from $10 to $48 because physical demand quadrupled ?
Click to expand...


Maybe those high numbers are the manipulation and lower prices are closer to the actual real investment value in comparison to other assets?




Silver is the best conductor of heat and electricity of any metal on the periodic table.
Silver will play an increasingly larger role in solar technology.
Silver has MANY applications with an finite amount available.
Click to expand...

@ pdkbffwleo

Not so fast. Silver is loosing footing as the indispensable material...and maybe very quickly. As technology changes, so does industrial demand. Silver took a big hit since the development of digital cameras and video cameras. New materials like graphene and others may relegate silver to the status of metal for trinkets and jewelry. Remember, industry doesn't respond to price hikes like gold bugs and silver permabulls do. Industry finds ways to circumvent the use of metals that may be replaceable; for example: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com...2/07/pv-technology-swapping-silver-for-copper

Maybe higher silver prices will adversely affect industrial demand creating new technologies and materials that could make silver as obsolete as this:

8838_cheaptrick_8-track.jpg
 
Hi missinglink,

With gold and silver, IMO I just go back to history. You cannot change thousands of years of habit. In the end they must hold value and all the reasons why pm was valued in the first place will never change.

With the g/s ratio, I have never taken much notice for one reason - you can't trust history on that aspect - why?

Technology and coinage.

Coinage comes and goes and if in use ties up huge quantities of silver.

Technology - a good example is solar panels - we didn't have them 300 years ago and we won't have them in 100 years - or at least they won't use silver.

So, the consumption etc. changes a lot and all the time IMO.

In short, I put no thought at all to ratio - it lies where it lies.

Have a great day all

Gazza
 
mmissinglink said:
trew said:
mmissinglink said:
What I'm getting at is maybe the price dropping has very little to do with paper manipulation and more to do with demand drop.
Click to expand...

And it went up from $10 to $48 because physical demand quadrupled ?
Click to expand...


Maybe those high numbers are the manipulation and lower prices are closer to the actual real investment value in comparison to other assets?
Click to expand...

Don't forget that speculation drives prices as well and demand as well as.

If everyone took money out of other assets and tried buying silver the short term increase in demand would be much higher than the available supply, which will push prices up in the short term. As soon as the supply was able to meet the increased demand levels then the prices would drop back to a norm.
 
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