Trump economics and US Dollar

JulieW

JulieW

Well-Known Member
Silver Stacker
Where to from here?
Will Trump and his new wrecking crew enable some reforms, or will it be business as usual?
Is there any ray of light?

The Democratic party is at a crossroads, in a split between taking policy positions along lines of 'class' or 'identity.'

By class is meant working class of the broader public versus the moneyed interests of financiers and tech monopolists. Identity implies the working with various minority groups who certainly may deserve redress for real suppression of their rights and other financial abuses, but in a 'splintering' manner that breaks them down into special interest groups rather than a broader movement of the disadvantaged.

Why has this been the establishment approach of the heart of the Democratic power circles?


I think the reason for this Democratic strategy has been purely practical. There was no way the Wall Street wing of the Democratic party could make policy along lines of the middle class and the poor, and keep a straight face, while gorging themselves in a frenzy of massive soft corruption and enormous donations from the wealthiest few who they were thereby expected to represent and to serve.

And so they lost politically, and badly.

The average American, of whatever identity, finally became sick of them, and rejected the balkanization of their interests into special identity groups that could be more easily managed and messaged, and controlled.

This was a huge difference that we saw in the Sanders campaign, almost to a fault. Not because he was wrong necessarily, but because it was so unaccustomed, and insufficiently articulated. Sanders had his heart in the right place, perhaps, but he lacked the charisma and outspokenness of an FDR. Not to mention that his own party powers were dead set against him, because they wanted to keep the status quo that had rewarded them so well in place.

It is not at all obvious that the Democrats can find themselves again. Perhaps Mr. Trump, while doing some things well, will take economic policy matters to an excess, and like the Democrats ignore the insecurity and discontent of the working class. And the people will find a voice, eventually, in either the Democratic party, or something entirely new.

This is not just an American phenomenon. This has happened with Labour and Brexit in the UK, and is happening in the rest of the developed nations in Europe. One thing that the ruling elite of the West have had in common is a devotion to corporate globalisation and inequality.

And that system is not going to 'cohere' as economist Robert Johnson had put it so well.

With all this change and volatility and insecurity, it appears that people will be reaching for some sort of safe haven for themselves and their resources. So far the Dollar index has benefited from this, not because of its virtues, but from the weakness and foundering of the others.

I am afraid that the confidence in the Dollar as a safe haven is misplaced, especially if things go as I expect that they will with the US economy under a Trump administration. But that is still largely in his hand,s to be decided and written. We have yet to see if he has the will and mind to oppose the vested interests of his own party and the corporate, moneyed interests.

That is an enormous, history-making task, requiring an almost historic moral compass. And so I am not optimistic.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com.au/
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The above article is prefaced by this quote:

"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage. Intellectual myopia, often called stupidity, is no doubt a reason. But the privileged also feel that their privileges, however egregious they may seem to others, are a solemn, basic, God-given right. The sensitivity of the poor to injustice is a trivial thing compared with that of the rich."

John Kenneth Galbraith
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I think we should wait of to see his actions before classifying them as wrecking ball.

Give the guy a chance - even if you oppose everything he says and does. He has 4 years to prove himself and his team.
 
Phil_Stacker said:
I think we should wait of to see his actions before classifying them as wrecking ball.

Give the guy a chance - even if you oppose everything he says and does. He has 4 years to prove himself and his team.
Click to expand...

Agree. But the crux of the matter is this

We have yet to see if he has the will and mind to oppose the vested interests of his own party and the corporate, moneyed interests.
Click to expand...

At the minimum I expect Trump's call for a rise in interest rates to be first order of business, with the resultant inflation which I think will start a bout of stagflation and that is a whole new set of problems to deal with.

Also on the horizon is Trump's plan for massive infrastructure works, no doubt funded by the printing presses, which Trump has acknowledged as a convenient tool, along with bankruptcy.

I'm mindful of a quote (I think it may be Bernanke), that if all else fails they'll 'destroy the dollar'. Circumstances seem ripe for such a scenario.

Interesting days.
 
Yes, Julie, fiscal stimulus will be 'paid for' by Central Bank money printing. That destroys the US dollar. Also, the US dollar club currencies will follow - weakening currencies worldwide. The US would remain a major player in trade - so currency rate relativities would roughly continue for many countries.
 
Rickards is claiming SDR after a crisis in 2018. Presumably a trade level event with the "US Dollar" becoming some sort of local currency, allowing for quite a domestic devaluation, if that's the plan.
 
Do they teach the economics of how the US got out of the great depression in your schools? If not it is well documented. They had a labor army (work for welfare) and invested in nation building like the Hoover dam. Again, judge him and his team for what they achieve (or don't achieve). Pre judgment is literally prejudice.
 
"Will Trump and his new wrecking crew"


That is as far as i got, stopped reading there.

OC
 
Swamp draining crew then.

Touchy bunch. That young ratbag has got you all on edge.
 
Phil_Stacker said:
Do they teach the economics of how the US got out of the great depression in your schools? If not it is well documented. They had a labor army (work for welfare) and invested in nation building like the Hoover dam.
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On the contrary, it's argued that the "economics" employed by the Federal government at the time actually contributed to the severity of the Great Depression. Raising the minimum wage, increasing tariffs on imported goods, forcing thousands into labour programs using inefficient technologies and providing government subsidies to struggling industries all lead to economic, allocative and technological inefficiencies. In other words, industries produced stuff that consumers didn't want, wasting resources in the process employing equipment that was outdated, a few benefitted but there were thousands of losers.. Now while such policies may "employ" people, they hinder productivity gains and retard the spread of wealth in society - as evidenced by the length of the Great Depression.

Trump's economic policies regarding trade and industry mirror those of Hoover and FDR, in a vain and mistaken attempt to force consumers to buy locally produced goods in preference to foreign goods. Trump fails to grasp the concept that trade is a two-way street, shutting off imports shuts off exports.

The talk issuing from the populist media and our protectionist politicians across all nations reads like the narrative from the looters in Atlas Shrugged.

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PRESIDENT Donald Trump, the new "Great Satan".

Why, because he defeated a socialist!

The more they fear, the more they HATE! HATE! HATE!



OC
 
Coupled with Trump's wish to actually encourage energy exploration rather than shackle the industry in green tape, the timing of this news could prove to be a huge boost for the US economy - and give Russia and the Middle Eastern oil producers the sh*ts:

"USGS Announces Largest Oil And Gas Deposit Ever Assessed In U.S."

Peak oil, anybody?

What's that noise? It's millions of Greenies' heads exploding like in the movie, 'Mars Attacks'. Well, those that hadn't already gone Pop! when Trump was elected......

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...ounces-its-largest-oil-and-gas-discovery-ever
 
Old Codger said:
PRESIDENT Donald Trump, the new "Great Satan".

Why, because he defeated a socialist!
Click to expand...

I'd class Trump's trade policies as socialist. He's intent upon externalising the costs of supporting inefficient US industries onto taxpayers and consumers.
 
Phil_Stacker said:
I think we should wait of to see his actions before classifying them as wrecking ball.

Give the guy a chance - even if you oppose everything he says and does. He has 4 years to prove himself and his team.
Click to expand...
I think the congress will give him 6 mths to prove himself as well as acting as part of the team - Republicans that is... not Trump. I also heard that if he's a loose cannon then Mike Pence will take his reign....
 
mmm....shiney! said:
Old Codger said:
PRESIDENT Donald Trump, the new "Great Satan".

Why, because he defeated a socialist!
Click to expand...

I'd class Trump's trade policies as socialist. He's intent upon externalising the costs of supporting inefficient US industries onto taxpayers and consumers.
Click to expand...

You beat me to posting this by 10 minutes.
 
Agree, let's wait until the man is actually sworn in and doing the job.

He will be 'on probation' until the so called 'honeymoon' is over and the voters get a good look at him. From what i have read and been told the 'white male' elected him, and they will throw him out, or shoot him, if needs be.


OC
 
Old Codger said:
Agree, let's wait until the man is actually sworn in and doing the job.

He will be 'on probation' until the so called 'honeymoon' is over and the voters get a good look at him. From what i have read and been told the 'white male' elected him, and they will throw him out, or shoot him, if needs be.


OC
Click to expand...

Apparently not just white guys O.C.

Now the votes are in, and Trump got greater support from minorities than Romney or McCain before him. You can read the Washington Post article, Trump Got More Votes From People Of Color Than Romney Did, or look at the raw data (source)


Trump made gains among blacks. He made gains among Latinos. He made gains among Asians. The only major racial group where he didn't get a gain of greater than 5% was white people. I want to repeat that: the group where Trump's message resonated least over what we would predict from a generic Republican was the white population.

Nor was there some surge in white turnout. I don't think we have official numbers yet, but by eyeballing what data we have it looks very much like whites turned out in equal or lesser numbers this year than in 2012, 2008, and so on.


http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/11/16/you-are-still-crying-wolf/
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Old Codger said:
PRESIDENT Donald Trump, the new "Great Satan".

Why, because he defeated a socialist!

The more they fear, the more they HATE! HATE! HATE!

OC
Click to expand...
Donald is not Satan mate, he's the greatest salesman ever... He sold it to the US people and they bought it!
 
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