True value of silver today?

[goldpanner]

I see so many posts speculating on the future value of silver but I would like to know what people think is the realistic value for silver today.

We all know that most price moves are to do with the 'paper' trading and that is why there is so much volatility with the silver price.

Putting all that aside what is the real value of silver today as a commodity?

I personally think that $26 - 32 an ounce is not a bad realistic value for today. At this price the miners can still mine it at a profit and it is not too expensive for industrial use.

 

[Shaddam IV]

Sounds about right. I always thought that if silver took off due to panic buying (and if I had any at the time) I would sell at $70.00 which to me is the highest reasonable price that I think it should reach.

 

[worldbubble]

the fact that metal is not renewable makes it invaluable!

if silver takes off I'll sell it for $1745.42/oz ... for SS member I'll make an offer at $1740.76

 

[TofuAttack]

I see silver as the most undervalued commodity, bbc estimates at the current rate of production there is only 17 years left of silver. Silver demand is growing and has outpaced production for 15 years (even while production has more than doubled since the 1990s) while the applications and uses for silver are still increasing. Currently, there is at least 5 times more gold than silver in above ground inventories, and when silver is consumed, much of it becomes unrecoverable, whereas very little gold is destroyed.

For me, the thought of selling will not even be considered for a long time. Don't want to say any figures, but I have a prediction that in the not too distant future, silver may even be on par with gold for a short period of time, when the basic principles of scarcity, demand and supply, becomes unsuppressed and the market overshoots.

 

[Jash]

Approximately 1 billion ounces are figured to come out of the ground this year. That's 1/7th ounce per person this year if everyone was allocated the same portion.

So, I've bought my next 2,800 years worth of silver that would be allocated to me at 1/7th ounce per year.

Also a denarius was the daily wage of a soldier during Roman Empire. A denarius was 1/10th ounce of silver. Or a little less than what each person would recieve if all the silver mined this year was handed out equally.

Silver is so very undervalued that when it's true value is discovered, it will shock even the most optimistic stacker out there.

 

[wrcmad]

I would like to know what people think is the realistic value for silver today.

Right now, exactly AUD$26.56. I believe that is the value of silver, because that is what it's selling for. Whether physical, or paper, that is it's value. Any thing else is speculation or wishful thinking.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

I would like to know what people think is the realistic value for silver today.

Right now, exactly AUD$26.56. I believe that is the value of silver, because that is what it's selling for. Whether physical, or paper, that is it's value. Any thing else is speculation or wishful thinking.

That depends on whether you consider the AUD as a measure of value. :/

 

[wrcmad]

That depends on whether you consider the AUD as a measure of value. :/

I know, the old loaf of bread argument.... What do you get paid in? What do you settle your living expenses in? How many AUD's does 1 oz Ag buy now compared to 6 months ago?

 

[Ronnie 666]

I would like to know what people think is the realistic value for silver today.

Right now, exactly AUD$26.56. I believe that is the value of silver, because that is what it's selling for. Whether physical, or paper, that is it's value. Any thing else is speculation or wishful thinking.

Since when do you apply free-market ideas to silver ? How do you value anything these days. The problem with long term zero interest rates is that it distorts all values especially the value of fiat money. You are measuring silver value using fiat money that measuring stick is bent and so your measure is inaccurate. I agree you can buy silver for fiat - not spot but 3-5% over spot. Tomorrow spot may be $ more or less. Most of the time when spot moves it has nothing whatsover to do with silver as a commodity but is related to more distortions like QE or the talk of QE etc. How can you value anything these days as tomorrow that value will change up or down and that movement has no real or fundamental relationship to silver. When you realise that the fiat price is as good a measure of value as pulling numbers out of a hat then you soon realise that under these monetary policies everything has a distorted and unrealistic value. That will end and that is what we as SS are hoping.

 

[Ronnie 666]

That depends on whether you consider the AUD as a measure of value. :/

I know, the old loaf of bread argument.... What do you get paid in? What do you settle your living expenses in? How many AUD's does 1 oz Ag buy now compared to 6 months ago?

Dont use fiat that is a distortion. Use your house. How many oz of silver do you need to buy your house now compared to 1 year ago. Probably the same.

 

[mmm....shiney!]

That depends on whether you consider the AUD as a measure of value. :/

I know, the old loaf of bread argument.... What do you get paid in? What do you settle your living expenses in? How many AUD's does 1 oz Ag buy now compared to 6 months ago?

No I'm not interested in the loaf of bread argument, I was merely pointing out that it's impossible to quantify the value of something that may have intrinsic value by referring to something that has no intrinsic value.

And I was also being a cheeky pain in the arse wrcmad

 

[wrcmad]

Since when do you apply free-market ideas to silver ? ..... Tomorrow spot may be $ more or less..... How can you value anything these days as tomorrow that value will change up or down and that movement has no real or fundamental relationship to silver.

What you have described is market price. Yes, I use market price as a measure of value... in fiat. That is it's value defined.
Apologies for it not fitting the "stackers are genius's 'cause we know better" mantra, but that is my measure.
More ironic (and I've said this before) if you think you and other stackers are any different, then take a look at the sales threads.. and note the change in asking price with change in spot.
What price are you willing to sell me an oz for?

 

[Ronnie 666]

Since when do you apply free-market ideas to silver ? ..... Tomorrow spot may be $ more or less..... How can you value anything these days as tomorrow that value will change up or down and that movement has no real or fundamental relationship to silver.

What you have described is market price. Yes, I use market price as a measure of value... in fiat. That is it's value defined.
Apologies for it not fitting the "stackers are genius's 'cause we know better" mantra, but that is my measure.
More ironic (and I've said this before) if you think you and other stackers are any different, then take a look at the sales threads.. and note the change in asking price with change in spot.
What price are you willing to sell me an oz for?

I will not sell you my silver for fiat dollars or bread. Over the last 10 years have sold only 10oz of silver (damaged 10oz Kook) I used the fiat to buy more silver. Very few people other than the deperate are selling PM right now as we realise that the fiat measure is wrong. That is why physical PM sales are falling. Do you know a free market were sales are falling and the price is falling - that is a very funny free market ?

 

[Club2USilver]

I would like to know what people think is the realistic value for silver today.

Right now, exactly AUD$26.56. I believe that is the value of silver, because that is what it's selling for. Whether physical, or paper, that is it's value. Any thing else is speculation or wishful thinking.

Since when do you apply free-market ideas to silver ? How do you value anything these days. The problem with long term zero interest rates is that it distorts all values especially the value of fiat money. You are measuring silver value using fiat money that measuring stick is bent and so your measure is inaccurate. I agree you can buy silver for fiat - not spot but 3-5% over spot. Tomorrow spot may be $ more or less. Most of the time when spot moves it has nothing whatsover to do with silver as a commodity but is related to more distortions like QE or the talk of QE etc. How can you value anything these days as tomorrow that value will change up or down and that movement has no real or fundamental relationship to silver. When you realise that the fiat price is as good a measure of value as pulling numbers out of a hat then you soon realise that under these monetary policies everything has a distorted and unrealistic value. That will end and that is what we as SS are hoping.

I cant wait for some bright spark to redo the whole Mike Maloney video, all 90 minutes encompassing all his valid research from his Rich Dad series book......

in AUSTRALIAN terms...using AUSTRALIAN examples and historic prices

or has this been done already?

Please point me in the direction of that individual

 

[wrcmad]

Over the last 10 years have sold only 10oz of silver (damaged 10oz Kook) I used the fiat to buy more silver.

And that, my friend, is why I currently value silver at around AUD$26.50.

 

[Aureus]

I think it should be in the 40s, that is why I still have my core stack.
I sold a good amount on the run up to $50 last year but got greedy and ended up holding onto 50% when it all came tumbling down. I will be selling the rest when it gets back up there though, and it will, sooner rather than later.

I am a firm believer that breaking through $50 is a near impossible task, you break that magic number and all of a sudden you reach a point of no resistance, a point which would make us all very happy. There are too many obstacles in place to prevent this from happening, so as the past has taught us, it's probably best to exit when you approach that number.

Gold is a different story, really is no limit to its worth. Banks wouldn't hold it if they thought it was going to depreciate in the future.

 

[Ronnie 666]

Over the last 10 years have sold only 10oz of silver (damaged 10oz Kook) I used the fiat to buy more silver.

And that, my friend, is why I currently value silver at around AUD$26.50.

You make as much sense as Ben Bernanke writing himself bigger and bigger cheques. I want to see you buy physical silver at spot. The only person who will sell it to you at $26.50 are the ignorant and the desperate. Neither can determine value. Try the PM they sell physical silver..

 

[mikedm]

Gold is a different story, really is no limit to its worth. Banks wouldn't hold it if they thought it was going to depreciate in the future.

Banks did sell it at its bottom though :S

 

[wrcmad]

You make as much sense as Ben Bernanke writing himself bigger and bigger cheques. I want to see you buy physical silver at spot. The only person who will sell it to you at $26.50 are the ignorant and the desperate. Neither can determine value. Try the PM they sell physical silver..

You can split hairs if you want to. Everyone knows there is a fabrication premium for physical. For arguments sake, lets call it spot + 5%?

 

[Ronnie 666]

You value silver at spot while you believe that is the true value because you can buy some at spot+5% ....maybe .....using your fiat money. As you know the future let me tell you a true story about the past. My great uncle bought a 8kt blue white diamond in 1932 for 500. Was that true value. My uncle sold the diamond in 1966 for $400,000. He thought he made a killing. Today that stone is worth $3million+. Was 500 fair value in the middle of the great depression. We are now in a great depression with even greater distortion of values. Do you want the 1oz silver or $26.50. There is no choice - give me the silver. What does fiat value mean in the future world.....nothing at all until we stop distorting the value of money.