Just my opinion but gonna say I expect a full market collapse before the end of this financial year
Many indicators are showing a squeeze has already started and will continue to play out an orchestrated collapse, many weary of another Black October have already started selling down assets and moving back to cash. As much as I dislike fiat currency unfortunately I think Cash will be King again, at least for a very short period of time. Time is almost out now to pick up short positions at a reasonable premium, obviously George Soros timed it well or knew something others didn't.
Expect volatility to ramp up in October and it may even come down then, if not soon after. I don't expect any money printing to occur until after everything has collapsed, this will allow the large players time to swallow up all the smaller players again and further consolidate the wealth of the big boys.
Gold and Silver will have further to fall, Gold bottom US$1000-$1055, Silver bottom US$14-16 however in Australian Dollars it won't be that much different than it is now, only slightly lower. Expect the USD to gain once again as the markets fall apart so we will probably end up at about AU$0.70 to the USD so I would not worry about selling down precious metals at this point however I would sit on cash ready for a bottom.
This time it will be a little different however, a lot more smaller companies will collapse and we will need to see the Australian Government pass through some new wild legislation to keep some of our banks afloat while the Reserve Bank makes new arrangements with the big four. We may or may not get an emergency interest rate cut but there will be a lot of money printing happening after the fall, just not necessarily resulting in any real inflation effect.
After the money printing I do expect the share market to stabilise, property will be hit hard in areas that are over-leverage with little equity however other areas will hold their ground fairly well. But the biggest gains will be precious metals, but only after the collapse and after the money printing has begun and after Gold and Silver have reached their bottom then they will start to come back up (1st Quarter 2015). Moves will be slow at first but then their will be an explosion in the price.
I expect the price of precious metals to gain rapidly at this point for a few reasons;
(#1) the technical bottom will have been formed so from a technical basis the chartists will see this as a huge buy signal, but only after it has come off the bottom and broken a few areas of resistance
(#2) the fundamentals will be great, mines will nearly all be mining at a loss so you are buying at below global average production cost
(#3) those that got burnt in the GFC and now again in GFC2.0 will not have the trust in trying again and will search out more sound investments such as precious metals
(#4) which is the by far the biggest reason is while during the last 4 years only the Gold and Silver bugs continued to buy the precious metals creating a demand of say 0.5% or less of the population once the next bull leg is clearly in play we will see perhaps up to 5% of the population chasing this investment. The mob investment mentality is to Sell what is falling and Buy what is moving up so while it seemed like we were flooded with extra supply of precious metals these last 4 years it will all dry up very fast the second the price turns around creating another big leg up and eventually another bubble top in the price.
Many indicators are showing a squeeze has already started and will continue to play out an orchestrated collapse, many weary of another Black October have already started selling down assets and moving back to cash. As much as I dislike fiat currency unfortunately I think Cash will be King again, at least for a very short period of time. Time is almost out now to pick up short positions at a reasonable premium, obviously George Soros timed it well or knew something others didn't.
Expect volatility to ramp up in October and it may even come down then, if not soon after. I don't expect any money printing to occur until after everything has collapsed, this will allow the large players time to swallow up all the smaller players again and further consolidate the wealth of the big boys.
Gold and Silver will have further to fall, Gold bottom US$1000-$1055, Silver bottom US$14-16 however in Australian Dollars it won't be that much different than it is now, only slightly lower. Expect the USD to gain once again as the markets fall apart so we will probably end up at about AU$0.70 to the USD so I would not worry about selling down precious metals at this point however I would sit on cash ready for a bottom.
This time it will be a little different however, a lot more smaller companies will collapse and we will need to see the Australian Government pass through some new wild legislation to keep some of our banks afloat while the Reserve Bank makes new arrangements with the big four. We may or may not get an emergency interest rate cut but there will be a lot of money printing happening after the fall, just not necessarily resulting in any real inflation effect.
After the money printing I do expect the share market to stabilise, property will be hit hard in areas that are over-leverage with little equity however other areas will hold their ground fairly well. But the biggest gains will be precious metals, but only after the collapse and after the money printing has begun and after Gold and Silver have reached their bottom then they will start to come back up (1st Quarter 2015). Moves will be slow at first but then their will be an explosion in the price.
I expect the price of precious metals to gain rapidly at this point for a few reasons;
(#1) the technical bottom will have been formed so from a technical basis the chartists will see this as a huge buy signal, but only after it has come off the bottom and broken a few areas of resistance
(#2) the fundamentals will be great, mines will nearly all be mining at a loss so you are buying at below global average production cost
(#3) those that got burnt in the GFC and now again in GFC2.0 will not have the trust in trying again and will search out more sound investments such as precious metals
(#4) which is the by far the biggest reason is while during the last 4 years only the Gold and Silver bugs continued to buy the precious metals creating a demand of say 0.5% or less of the population once the next bull leg is clearly in play we will see perhaps up to 5% of the population chasing this investment. The mob investment mentality is to Sell what is falling and Buy what is moving up so while it seemed like we were flooded with extra supply of precious metals these last 4 years it will all dry up very fast the second the price turns around creating another big leg up and eventually another bubble top in the price.
the talk now about the gubermint restricting house prices.
