The likely repercussions of a USD collapse for the Australian economy?

Citizen

Citizen

Member
Hi all,

I'm a relatively new stacker, having started mid last year or so. Perhaps the most interesting aspect is through my initial research I've developed a unprecedented interest in economics - a subject I'd never thought of as anything but dull and inaccessible. The story of the path of 20th century US Economy is truly intriguing, and the sheer audacity of the Fed and US policymakers is truly mind-boggling.

I've read Schiff, Maloney, Chris Martenson, Kiyosaki and other economic realists/alarmists - and watched countless youtube clips etc. While these guys are great at creating a sound, concise and compelling argument for the imminent collapse, its repercussions and how to protect one's wealth, there is scant information as to how these events will effect the rest of the world.

Can someone please share their views on this, or ideally point me to some materials that will allow me some insights into how these events may effect the Australian economy and various alternative scenarios?

Thanks, in advance - I'd really appreciate some help with this.
 
I with you Citizen.

Steve Keen is about the only Oz based contrarian I know.

Although US based, Gerald Celente travels widely, and speaks in broad terms about 'trends' that are global.

Personally, I look at "history" as it tends to repeat itself. Everyone is talking about a depression, so I look for books on Australian economic history and Australia during The Great Depression. Your local public library is a good place to start. You have to go hardcopy for Aussie stuff, not much of it has been digitised yet. I recently posted an excerp from Jack Lang's book here (Post# 13) and recommend it as an enlightening read

http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-4800-printing-trillions.html

All the precursors are there, rampant property speculation followed by withdrawal of foreign investment then withdrawal of business and finally public capital. Currency contraction, Rampant inflation, Trade tarrifs causing both shortages and overproduction in the primary industries. Food shortages, Black market activity, political upheaval, strikes, civil liberties crushed, dogs & cats living together...mass hysteria.

Also check out the history of the Argentinian and Weirmar Republic. There's also Rhodesian and South African economics during their sanctions. All of them give a good insight into the political mechanations that repeat and repeat throughout history.
 
I think it has been said that 70 odd percent of the worlds money is the US dollar (world reserve currency). So a collapse in the value and more importantly the collapse of confidence in it would cause large changes.
In my mind it would mean a change in allocation of where people and countries store their wealth and what they transact with.
You would have to consider what the alternatives are?
euro, gold, silver, oil, yuan.? I obviously dont know but it will cause changes in the valuation of all of them.

history example..recent and smaller scale..
Zimbabwe..their currency lost confidence and people started using USD as it was more stable.. I suspect some started using knives and guns too.

In terms of where to look for materials i dont know.
I do know that the story of the Thaler is an interesting insight into what happens when a large quantity of people want to trade with each other but do not have a trusted item of exchange that is constant and reliable.

Edit.. and yes clawhammer that was a great read and eerily familiar sounding

http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/
 
EU monetary union is very shaky and we may get a cascading clusterflock of black swans when it capitulates

Hyperinflation clears the shelves of anything of value and nothing is more vital than a food supply.

That, energy and pms seem like rational choices for your paper
 
millededge said:
EU monetary union is very shaky and we may get a cascading clusterflock of black swans when it capitulates
Click to expand...

This is just amazing... and right in the middle of this, who do they admit into the Euro at midnight of New Years Eve?... friggen Estonia!? I mean WTF! :o I swear their finance minister looks and speaks like Borat!
 
Thanks for your thoughts guys. I'll read that excerpt Clawhammer.

Clawhammer said:
All the precursors are there, rampant property speculation followed by withdrawal of foreign investment then withdrawal of business and finally public capital. Currency contraction, Rampant inflation, Trade tarrifs causing both shortages and overproduction in the primary industries. Food shortages, Black market activity, political upheaval, strikes, civil liberties crushed, dogs & cats living together...mass hysteria.
Click to expand...

Do you sincerely believe this to be a possibility in Australia?

Also - and I understand that no-one could possibly accurately predict this - what would the sequence of events be between the collapse of the USD, and feeling the repercussions here? Would it likely be roughly instantaneous, or would 'doomsday' type scenarios be playing out in the before we felt the same effects?

I know this is a massive question, but I'm still trying to come to grips with the enormity of the topic, and sadly many of the US perspectives tend to be alarmist/sensationalist to some extent. (Alex Jones, I'm looking at you!) :P I'm just trying to ascertain a gamut of possible scenarios between complete and utter chaos and a more moderate shift.
 
You know I'm not sure if AUD will go into hyper-inflation. Severely devalued perhaps, but to be completely worthless is probably unlikely. We have similar problems as USA but no where near the severity!

My guess is when the SHTF AUD will worth less than 20% it's current value but not completely worthless unlike USD, Pound and Euro.
 
Citizen said:
Do you sincerely believe this to be a possibility in Australia?

I'm just trying to ascertain a gamut of possible scenarios between complete and utter chaos and a more moderate shift.
Click to expand...

Well that's the trick isn't it. It may be an all out collapse or there may be only parts of these senarios to play out. But by being prepared (and I mean mentally, i.e. with a plan), you'll be better able to deal with them as they occurr, rather than wasting time working through the Kubler-Ross grief stages.

Clawhammer's 1st Rule of Management; No Surprises i.e. You can't stop bad things from happening but if you can prevent them from being a surprise you're half way to managing a solution.
 
This is just amazing... and right in the middle of this, who do they admit into the Euro at midnight of New Years Eve?... friggen Estonia!? I mean WTF! I swear their finance minister looks and speaks like Borat!
Click to expand...

Shhhhhhhhh Claw - it IS Borat but don't tell anyone.

It's all part of the Illuminati's Grand Plan. ;)

Zargor
 
Clawhammer said:
Clawhammer's 1st Rule of Management; No Surprises i.e. You can't stop bad things from happening but if you can prevent them from being a surprise you're half way to managing a solution.
Click to expand...
+1
 
Good rule! Can I have the list Clawhammer?
The most useful one I find is the 'Peter Principle' - something like - managers rise to their level of incompetence.
Seems to be true of my workplace.
 
JulieW said:
Good rule! Can I have the list Clawhammer?
The most useful one I find is the 'Peter Principle' - something like - managers rise to their level of incompetence.
Seems to be true of my workplace.
Click to expand...

My 'list' is pretty eclectic and their order varies depending on who I'm talking to :D and contains idioms such as;

Never argue with an idiot, someone may pass by and not know which one of you is the idiot.
There's no such thing as common sense, what's required is a common understanding. Team members have to be heard by the group.
Stay calm (giving yourself room/time to think, stops you being trapped in a setup where an emotional reaction is desired by the other party)
Don't answer questions you're not comfortable with. Respond with your own questions like "why do you want to know that?"
Don't assume, When you assume you make an ass outta u and me!; Continually Ask "What's missing?" (Always apply the who, what, where, when, how & why questions) Work the problem, don't make things worse by guessing.
Don't Mind-read, Everyone has bad days, So when dealing with a problem person ask yourself "why would a reasonable person behave in this way?"
Being 'the Boss' doesn't mean you have the copywrite on all the good ideas. Ask others for their input
Don't bitch to those below you. They've got enough to deal with, you're their boss, behave like a professional
Make every job fun...don't lose your sense of humor.


The Peter Principle applies to all of us, from the guy that sweeps the floor to the owner of the factory whom signs the paycheques. Everyone who does well at a job is promoted out of their comfort zone, until they're no longer comfortable or competent at that new level.
 
Good list CH work to most of that myself.

On the collapse from what I have seen lately I see a push to a Global Currency. Except they are not ready to pounce yet. The way it was presented seemed to me that there needed to be some pain first so the sheeples wanted change then the big global players would present their grand plan and all of the sheeples would go YES that is the way to go.

OK some of you may have seen the movie ? but it does seem to be playing out that way. We have a new member in the EU so that is expanding rather than shrinking ?

Who knows but I do see this as a long term strategy, perhaps not in this collapse but maybe the next one ?
 
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